The third wave of NBC News Wall Street Journal polls have come in, and right now, it is a clean sweep of all nine "battleground" states for President Obama:
Topline numbers:
Obama 51, Romney 44 (NH)
Obama 49, Romney 47 (NV)
Obama 48, Romney 46 (NC)
Very good news in NH and NC, but the NV number is surprisingly close. More will be added to the diary as I read through the polls.
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...
More below the squiggle.
Obama leads with female voters by 20 points in NH, 16 points in NC, and 11 points in NV.
Obama's approval rating is 50% in NH, but only 47% in NV and 48% in NC, which is concerning (especially NV).
Romney is viewed unfavorably by 52% of NH voters. Romney's favorability is also -3 in Nevada (45-48), and it is only +1 (46-45) in NC.
Obama leads Clark County (NV) by 7 points with RVs but only 2 points among LV. He will need to get Clark County to dominate the rest of Nevada to win. However, the writeup admitted that 15% Hispanic turnout in Nevada is probably undersampling Hispanics in the state.
Obama is supported 93-5 by African Americans in NC, but he is only winning 33% of the white vote in NC.
More detailed internals:
New Hampshire:
RV: Obama 51, Romney 43
Only 2% of the Granite State electorate might vote differently (the cake is baked)
Obama Approval: 50-45 (+5)
Hassan leads Lamontagne for NH Gov, 47-45
Right/wrong track: 44-51 (-7), better than -20 a few months ago
Male-female: 50-50
Age demographics: 18-29 yrs, 7%
30-44 yrs, 19%
45-59 yrs, 33%
60+ yrs, 41%
Party ID: 25D, 25R, 49I. Of the 49I, 5% lean more Democratic than Republican
Romney favorability: 43-52 (-9)
Economy: Obama 49-46 (+3)
Foreign policy: Obama 54-41 (+13)
North Carolina:
RV: Obama 49, Romney 45
Only 1% of the Tar Heel State electorate might vote differently
Obama Approval: 48-47 (+1)
McCrory leads Dalton for NC Gov, 52-39
Right/wrong track: 41-54 (-13), better than -20 a few months ago
Male-female: 47-53
Age Demographics: 18-29 yrs, 10%
30-44 yrs, 25%
45-59 yrs, 29%
60+ yrs, 36%
Racial demographics:
White: 70%, AA 22%, Hispanics 5% (about right for NC)
Party ID: 39D, 31R, 30I
Romney favorability: 46-45 (+1)
Economy: 47-46 Romney
Foreign policy: 49-42 Obama
Nevada:
RV: Obama 51, Romney 44 (+7)
Only 2% of Nevada electorate might vote differently
Obama approval: 47-49 (-2)
Heller leads Berkeley, 49-43 for NV-Sen (LV), 48-44 among RV
Right/wrong track: 41-55 (-14), not much better than -16 a few months ago
Male-female: 50-50
Age demographics: 18-29 yrs, 16%
30-44 yrs, 26%
45-59 yrs, 29%
60+ yrs, 26%
Racial dempgraphics: 66% White, 20% Hispanic, 7% AA
Party ID: 38D, 31R, 30I
Romney favorability: 45-48 (-3)
Economy: Romney 48-47
Foreign policy: Obama 48-45.