which can be read here:
The important thing to note is his percentage on Obama winning the state:
CO 70
FL 62
IA 70
NH 82
NV 81
OH 82
VA 71
WI 79
you will note Pennsylvania and Michigan are not on the list as competitive
IF you let Romney win ALL the states where Obama is <80% to win, electoral college would be
Obama 264
Romney 274
and Romney would win
But f you give Obama everything where he is >69% likely to take
Obama 303
Romney 235
And if you give Obama everything he is >60% likely to win
Obama 332
Romney 206
In other words, Romney pretty much has to run the table
and remember - this does NOT include any polling as yet impacted by Democratic convention.
FWIW