Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
Leading Off:
• NYC Mayor: In a first this cycle, Marist has tested a number of matchups in a hypothetical NYC mayoral Democratic runoff, which would be required if no candidate receives 40 percent of the vote in the primary. (Why does New York even have runoffs? They're a relic from the past.) Of course, New Yorkers first have to whittle the field down to just two names, but with ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner's entrance into the race, the primary picture is as scrambled as ever (April trendlines in parentheses):
Christine Quinn: 24 (26)
Anthony Weiner: 19 (15)
Bill de Blasio: 12 (11)
Bill Thompson: 11 (11)
John Liu: 8 (12)
Undecided: 23 (22)
Weiner keeps gaining, and Quinn keeps tumbling, but with this many undecideds, and the race
still barely begun on the mass media level, I'm loath to make any predictions. Despite everything, though, Quinn still does seem likeliest to make the runoff, so that's whom Marist tested everyone against. As the best-known candidate in the field, with a 60-26 favorability rating, she prevails against everyone (favorables for opponents in parens):
44-34 vs. Thompson (52-17)
48-33 vs. Weiner (44-44)
48-30 vs. de Blasio (50-19)
53-25 vs. Liu (45-31)
But as you can see, these numbers don't seem to correlate much with favorability scores or even name recognition. Liu, for instance, does considerably worse than Weiner, despite Weiner's extremely poor ratings. (Remember, these are among registered Democrats only; it's pretty rare for members of your own party to view a candidate so poorly.) Meanwhile, Thompson and de Blasio have very similar favorables, but Thompson comes much closer to Quinn. This may be one of those cases where intensity of voter feelings matters more than raw positive/negative scores.
Whatever the case may be, you could certainly argue that Quinn is in an enviable position. After all, she leads the pack, right? But given her drooping primary numbers (something also seen by Quinnipiac), I could readily believe that she has further to fall, and that could extend to the runoff as well—assuming, of course, that she makes it there.
Senate:
• GA-Sen: For those of you who'd like to know a little bit more about nonprofit founder Michelle Nunn, who seems like the consensus Democratic choice for Senate in Georgia, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution offers the first good, in-depth profile I've seen on her so far. Nunn still isn't commenting publicly about her interest in the race, though her famous father, ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, has a few quotes in the piece. And perhaps just as interesting as her notable Democratic pedigree are Michelle Nunn's connections to the Bush family. Nunn was the first executive director of a charity called Hands on Atlanta, which in 2007 merged with the Points of Light Foundation, a group inspired by the first President Bush and currently chaired by his son Neil. Neil Bush told the AJC that Nunn is a "fabulous leader," but "added with a chuckle, 'That's not an endorsement.' "
• KY-Sen: A new PPP poll (PDF) of the Kentucky Senate race, conducted on behalf of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, shows Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, the woman whom Democrats are most eager to see take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, moving into a tie with the incumbent. April trendlines are in parentheses:
Grimes (D): 45 (41)
McConnell (R): 45 (45)
Undecided: 10 (14)
But the difficulty for Democrats, as ever, remains getting over that hump to 50 percent. In an interesting twist, though, the demographics of the undecideds here
appear to lean bluer than usual, something not found in your typical poll of a red state. But another question in this poll, asked right after the McConnell-Grimes matchup, gives me pause:
In general, who would you rather support for the United States Senate: Mitch McConnell, a Republican who's been in Washington for 30 years, or a Kentucky Democrat who has not worked in Washington, DC?
Even in this dream scenario, which frames the race exactly as the Senate Majority PAC might wish it to be framed, this Platonic ideal of a Democrat only prevails by a 47-44 margin. But as I say, this is best-of-all-worlds framing. McConnell is already extremely well funded, and he'll be able to outspend his opponent and attack her every which way until two Novembers from now. By that point, the contest won't look like "crusty beltway Republican versus untainted Kentucky Democrat."
It's also worth noting that McConnell's job approval rating has rebounded sharply. In April, he was mired at an abysmal 36-54. Now he stands at 44-47—still mediocre, certainly, but much improved. It certainly would not be impossible to beat him, but it would require raising a ton of money, running a hell of a campaign, and probably catching a few lucky breaks.
Grimes is young (just 34) and has had the "rising star" label attached to her name for some time already. Senate Majority PAC is probably trying to convince her to get in, but does she want to potentially risk future advancement for a bruising, uphill race, and potential loss, now? I honestly can't say how I'd act if I were in her shoes. As I said the last time PPP polled this race, it's a high-risk, high-reward gamble. Beating the GOP Senate leader would turn Grimes into a giant-killer and a national sensation. We'll find out soon enough how tempting that prospect is for her.
(For what it's worth, Dem Rep. John Yarmuth says that Grimes hasn't been returning phone calls from prominent Democrats who have reached out to her about a possible bid. If Grimes really is making herself hard to talk to, it could be that Senate Majority felt it had no choice but to communicate with her publicly via this polling memo.)
• MA-Sen: Rep. Ed Markey's up with a new ad touting his support for "closing corporate tax loopholes" and the Buffett rule, and attacking Republican Gabriel Gomez for "refus[ing] to ask millionaires like himself to pay their fair share."
• NE-Sen: Given his avowed distaste for Washington, DC, it's no surprise that term-limited Gov. Dave Heineman finally announced that he would not seek Nebraska's open Senate seat, left vacant by Sen. Mike Johanns' unexpected retirement announcement. A Heineman entry would have cleared the GOP primary field, since almost every notable Republican said they'd defer to him. But with Heineman out of the picture, we can expect a very crowded nomination contest, as the list of potential candidates is quite long.
It's also possible that the prospect of a bloody Republican primary that could cough up a rough-hewn tea partier might lure some higher-profile Democrats into the race as well. The governor's race is open as well, though, so politicians in both parties will have to make up their minds about which seat, if any, they wish to pursue. (If you want to take a deeper dive, Sean Sullivan runs through just about all the potential names and then some, for both races.)
Gubernatorial:
• GA-Gov: I guess Dalton (pop. 33K) Mayor David Pennington is considering a challenge to Gov. Nathan Deal in the GOP primary, but he says he won't decide until mid-June. For a statewide race against a sitting governor, though, that's barely a cut above Some Dude.
• MI-Gov: It's finally official: Former Rep. Mark Schauer has entered the race for governor, in an effort to unseat deeply unpopular Gov. Rick Snyder. Schauer was the consensus Democratic choice and likely the strongest candidate Team Blue could field, so he'll almost certainly have a clear path to the nomination.
• VA-Gov: Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli has a new ad that's entirely non-political. The 60-second spot features the wife and children of a slain Fairfax County police officer who died in 2006, nine days after being shot in an attack. According to the family, Cuccinelli, then a state senator, was a constant presence in the hospital; he later spoke at the officer's funeral, a clip of which is included in the ad.
House:
• CA-10: While we opined that farmer Michael Eggman had a "Some Dude-ish profile" a little while back, here's a sign that he may be a bit better connected than your typical beekeeper. Eggman, who is hoping to take on GOP Rep. Jeff Denham, was just endorsed by Rep. Jerry McNerney, who represents the neighboring 9th District. Eggman's sister is Assemblywoman Susan Eggman, so the fact that he knows some local pols is not terribly surprising. But local Democrats are also waiting on the possibility of 2012 nominee Jose Hernandez running again, so Eggman is showing he can earn support even with a much more prominent potential rival looming.
• CA-31: I was definitely surprised when ex-Rep. Joe Baca rolled out a list of 30 members of Congress who were endorsing his comeback bid last week. After all, where does a jerk like that find that many friends? Well, apparently, he just makes them up—something that's absolutely pathetic for a congressional campaign, but very much not surprising from Baca.
So what's the story? Well, the most prominent name on roster of endorsees was Rep. Jim Clyburn, the third highest-ranking Democrat in the House, but now Clyburn insists that he isn't endorsing anyone in the primary. (Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, the DCCC's choice, and attorney Eloise Reyes, an EMILY's List pick, are both also running.) In response, Baca says he has an endorsement sheet with Clyburn's signature on it, though he hasn't made a copy public yet.
Believe it or not, getting endorsements wrong is something that happens from time to time—last year, Rep. Loretta Sanchez actually gave a signed endorsement card to Rep. Brad Sherman, then later claimed she had endorsed Rep. Howard Berman—but it's a seriously clown college move. Now I only wonder how many other representatives on Baca's list will also say they shouldn't have been included.
• GA-12: Navy vet Wright McLeod, who finished third in a fairly tight GOP primary for the right to take on Dem Rep. John Barrow last year, says he won't try again. Second-place finisher Rick Allen reportedly may be interested in another go, though.
• IA-01: State House Speaker Kraig Paulsen says he's giving "serious consideration" to the possibility of running for Rep. Bruce Braley's open House seat. He'd be the third Republican to enter the race (along with businessmen Steve Rathje and Rod Blum), but very likely the strongest candidate. It would take a huge effort for a Republican to win this race, though, seeing as this district went for Barack Obama by a 56-42 margin last year, but Paulsen presumably has the connections and fundraising network to make a serious run.
It's also worth noting that, after several weeks of overtime, the Iowa legislature finally wrapped up its session last Thursday. That means that legislators, including Paulsen and Democrats like state Sen. Jeff Danielson and state Rep. Tyler Olson, are now free to spend their time thinking about congressional bids—and launching them.
Other Races:
• CA-St. Sen: Wow. California really needs to get its house in order when it comes to tallying ballots in a timely fashion. Last week, Republican businessman Andy Vidak appeared to pull off an upset in a special election for the state Senate's 16th District, winning an outright majority of 52 percent and thus avoiding a runoff. Indeed, his chief Democratic rival, Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez, conceded the next morning. But after most of the outstanding absentee and provisional ballots were counted, Vidak slipped just below that 50 percent threshold to 49.8, while Perez climbed from 41.7 on election night to 43.8. Admittedly, it was an unlikely occurrence, as the non-Vidak candidates (Perez included) had to win about two thirds of those remaining votes, but that's precisely what came to pass.
There are still a tiny number of ballots that have yet to be counted, and the Fresno Bee says Vidak would have to win "almost all" of them in order to avoid a runoff. Everyone already learned the hard way never to say never in this race, but assuming things hold, a runoff will now take place on July 23, and indeed, Perez restarted her campaign on Friday. In a two-person race, anything is possible, seeing as all the other minor candidates in the first round were Democrats (with one "Peace & Freedom Party" candidate bringing up the rear with less than 1 percent of the vote). That makes this contest very close to 50-50. And it's a good lesson in why you should never concede a close race when there are still votes left to count.
• LA Mayor: Here's a really excellent post-mortem from the L.A. Times on City Controller Wendy Greuel's failed bid to become the first woman mayor of Los Angeles. (City Councilor Eric Garcetti, a fellow Democrat, won by 8 points.) In a nutshell, it sounds like Greuel, who started the race as the frontrunner, was a victim of her own sloppy campaigning, as well as a failure to expect and parry attacks from her opponents. She also planned on major support from public sector unions to push her over the top, but those very same labor ties wound up hurting her in the end. This thumbnail sketch doesn't do the piece justice, though, so I encourage you to read it in full.
• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso, on Tuesday's action:
Massachusetts Senate, 1st Suffolk: This is an open Democratic seat in Boston, stretching from Southie down to Hyde Park. The nominees are Democratic State Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry and Republican Joseph Ureneck, who ran for Governor's Council in 2010 and lost the primary by a 76-24 margin. (He does get points for his prodigious beard, though.)
Though there's no action in the general—Dorcena Forry is expected to win handily—this was actually a big election in the primary, representing
a major passage of power from white South Boston Dems to minority Democrats in Dorchester. First Suffolk had been a perennially Southie seat: It used to be Rep. Steve Lynch's, and former state Senate President Billy Bulger's before him—until now.
In the primary, Dorcena Forry, who is Haitian American, narrowly beat state Rep. Nick Collins (a young Southie kid considered a "rising star"), 47-45. Dorcena Forry's win was a big blow to Southie's influence in MA Dem politics, and it helps cement the influence of minority-dominated Boston in the political arena as well.
Grab Bag:
• TX Redistricting: The long-running (and far from concluded) saga over Texas redistricting took a new turn this week, with Gov. Rick Perry convening lawmakers for a special session devoted solely to the subject, immediately after the legislature's regular session concluded. Perry wants the legislature to pass interim maps crafted by a San Antonio federal court as the state's permanent maps for the rest of the decade, apparently under the belief that doing so "would help the state's case in court and forestall any delays of next year's primaries." I'm not exactly sure how that would help, but Gromer Jeffers at the Dallas Morning News adds some background explanation:
The districts, while not what Republicans had hoped for when the once-a-decade process started in 2011, are more palatable than what minorities and Democrats might score in the legal arena. Courts found "intentional discrimination" against minority voters in the Legislature's original maps, and minority groups and Democrats say the interim maps, which have never been pre-cleared by the Justice Department, contain similar problems.
It could be that Perry expects Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act to get struck down soon by the Supreme Court, in which case these interim maps—which were invalidated under Section 5 by a DC court but have the San Antonio judges' seal of approval on other grounds—could potentially be ready-made, hard-to-legally-assail maps that meet most Republican objectives. It's not a foolproof plan, though, as litigants in San Antonio are still hashing out many other issues unrelated to Section 5, and Kath Haenschen
at Burnt Orange Report thinks that if the Supreme Court declares that portion of the VRA unconstitutional, it could lead to even
more redistricting.
So perhaps Republicans are merely hoping that passing the interim maps into law will encourage the San Antonio court to give them added deference, since they would now have the legislature's imprimatur. It's hard to say, since Texas redistricting has been so fraught with countless twists and turns—and unpredictable moves by elected officials. But stay tuned.
• WATN?: Ex-Reps. Mary Bono Mack and Connie Mack are getting divorced. The two Republicans lost their respective campaigns last year (she for re-election in California, he for Senate in Florida), leading folks to wonder what state the couple might wind up in. It's a moot point now, of course, though they both found K Street lobbying jobs this spring.