The GOP's wall of intransigence is collapsing. Confusion abounds. They don't know what to do. For the last several days, we've all been afraid that the rudderless House GOP with a weak Speaker and two equally crazy factions (tea party wing and Ryan wing) would drive our ship of state into an iceberg taking down our government and our creditworthiness, raising all of our interest rates and driving our economy into a ditch.
Tonight, based on an article in Huffington Post, there may finally be a ray of hope that Obama and the Democrats are turning a corner in this dispute. Public opinion has soured on the GOP in every poll, the most damning being the recent results from Gallup and NBC/WSJ. The tea party and the Ryan factions have turned on one another. Tea partiers are bitterly disappointed that Ryan and his ilk were unwilling to support the shutdown/default to defund Obamacare. Ryan's attempt to extort Obama by demanding massive entitlement cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling has been rejected by the tea party.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Due to the internal divisions within the GOP, Paul Ryan's grip on the GOP has weakened and that has given John Boehner the opening to push his caucus to look at reality and think about giving up the hostages. Boehner offered a 6 week debt limit increase, and there were conflicting reports as to whether or not there were conditions. The House GOP foolishly believed that the American people wouldn't notice if the debt limit were lifted but the shutdown remained in effect. Regardless, President Obama rejected the GOP offer outright and demanded that it include a plan to re-open the government. The President, it seems, had the support of Senate Republicans led by John McCain who is stepping into the void to put together a proposal to end the shutdown and lift the debt ceiling. That would fulfill President Obama's objective of re-opening the government and lifting the debt ceiling without paying a ransom.
Once that happens, the parties will move into budget negotiations and the deal will be negotiated by a group of sane Senate Republicans and Senate Democrats with White House input. That deal will be forced upon the House of Representatives. Any deal negotiated by Senate Democrats will be tilted towards Obama's priorities. The nut jobs in the House will get nothing. Of course, there will be some concessions made to the GOP and perhaps even an attempt at a mini-grand bargain, but I think the expectations are considerably lower after this skirmish. The GOP has expended all of its political capital in this dispute and I don't believe there is a tremendous appetite for major entitlement cuts. I expect some tax reform and some nominal changes to the ACA.
Of course, the wildcard in all of this is Paul Ryan one the one hand and the tea party on the other hand. Paul Ryan looks to have been thwarted in his grand plan for now, but he will lay low and strike to scuttle any budget deal cut between Senate Republicans and Democrats. The tea party caucus will also refuse to vote for any compromise bill. That's why Boehner is going to need Nancy Pelosi and Democratic votes.
It has been a crazy two weeks but today's developments indicate that some saner Republicans are intervening to end the shutdown and lift the debt ceiling.