To date, the polls are showing growing national disgust with the Republican Party, or at least that part of it in the House holding the government hostage. This by itself is good news. IF this trend continues and IF the Democrats can capitalize on it and IF nothing else comes up to distract the country, the Congressional elections in 2014 could see Democrats continuing to hold the Senate and gaining ground in the House, possibly retaking it. IF....
The question we should we be thinking about now is, are we focusing on one battle where we seem to be winning, but are still losing the larger war? More below the Orange Omnilepticon.
It was actually pleasant (in a way) to listen to Rush Limbaugh on his Friday radio show. He was foaming at the mouth over the latest NBC WSJ poll showing House GOP members taking damage over the government shutdown. He was frantically trying to spin it into good news on one hand while screaming about the Obama-loving liberal media on the other, and apologizing to listeners because he kept breaking into shouting. So far, so good.
BUT (and you knew there was going to be one), let's not forget what else is going on. The Democrats are fighting to get the government back to work under a budget that enshrines Republican levels of funding, thanks to the sequester. And while demands to defund, delay, or otherwise damage Obamacare are being put by the wayside, "responsible" people are trying to shift the debate to entitlement "reform" and "getting government spending under control" - the Old Grand Bargain zombie again.
In other words, although the Tea Party faction is getting hammered, and doing damage to the GOP brand, the GOP's larger agenda is alive and well - and Democrats risk forwarding it by continuing to accept its precepts as the baseline to work from.
The Great Recession still has a grip on America - recovery has NOT trickled down from the top. Economists who aren't shills for conservative think tanks have said repeatedly that we need MORE government spending, NOT LESS to really get the economy moving again. We need to worry about jobs first - and then the deficit. Putting America back to work will do more to fix the deficit long term than mindless cutting. Our national infrastructure is crumbling and outmoded - with interest rates still essentially near flat, now is exactly the best time to make the huge investments we need to put people back to work today and keep the country running in the future.
So what do we hear? Republicans continue to insist government spending is out of control, and we must deal with the deficit for the sake of our children. When the President and other Democrats only respond by saying that's not true, spending is down, government is smaller, and the deficit is shrinking, they're sending the wrong message.
Be Careful What You Work For
Number One, Democrats when they talk this way are reinforcing Republican framing on issues: Government must always shrink; spending must always go down. (Except when Republicans are in charge, of course.) Number Two, they're making it impossible to give the country what it really needs - more government spending and more government until the country is on an even keel again. Only then will it be time for the government to ease off, when the private sector is ready and willing to do its part - AND the government has the tools and resources to keep the private sector from going off the rails again.
Now is the time when Democrats should do more than scoring easy points; they should be thinking - and talking - about the larger picture as well. This is a perfect opportunity to show America the worst case scenario - how the absence of government is hurting the economy - and is actually dangerous. They should also remind the public where they'd be if George W. Bush had succeeded in turning Social Security over to Wall Street back in 2005. Some things ARE best left to government.
They should be making the case that the shutdown is what Republicans have wanted all along, ever since Reagan declared government was the enemy. The only difference is that they're doing it by one huge cut instead of the thousand cuts they push for every day. And if Republicans continue to scream about government spending, remind the American people that the last president to balance the budget and run a surplus was Bill Clinton - and his reward for doing what Republicans have never been able to do was an impeachment trial. It won't hurt to mention (as often as possible) that the party claiming government spending is out of control just happens to be expert in the matter - and not in a good way.
Meanwhile, Back in the Laboratories of Democracy...
Democrats really have to step up their game at the state level. As is being proven every day, where Republicans have taken power in the states, they've used that power both locally and nationally to advance their interests and sabotage the Democrats. It's not enough to take and hold the White House or the Senate if, as we're seeing, Republicans can gerrymander congressional districts to keep the House of Representatives. Further, as we're also seeing, districts drawn to include True Believers are ones that reward extremism, demand it even!
Republican state governments have fought Obamacare, taking it to court, refusing to set up insurance exchanges, rejecting Medicaid expansion, and leaving even more people without coverage. The war on Planned Parenthood is proving to be a disaster for the least powerful in those states - women, children, the poor. Their no-tax, no-regulation mania is turning parts of the U.S. into our very own third world countries, with declining life spans, rising infant mortality, and failing education. (Nifty tool for comparing states and the overall picture here.)
Charles P. Pierce (from whom the caption for this section was borrowed) does a regular job keeping an eye on what's happening 'out there' beyond the Beltway. Examples: here, and here. It can not be too highly remarked that what happens at the state level matters at the national level - which is why the organized money behind so much of what the Republican Party has created the American Legislative Exchange Council, happily engaged in writing laws to their benefit one state at a time. As so go the states, so goes the nation. It should be remembered also that states are the farm clubs where future national 'stars' are groomed for moving up to the majors.
The states are where Republicans are systematically destroying the Democratic base. It's not just about gerrymandering after all. The GOP knows they lose when Democrats turn out - which is why they're working so hard to make voting as difficult as they can get away with. Their 'reforms' killing state employee unions, privatizing schools and killing teacher unions - it's not about making life better for anyone except Republicans. They know that what little remains of organized labor in this country is still a power center for Democratic organizing and getting out the vote. (Destruction of organized labor is also a primary objective of the corporations and filthy rich megalomaniacs behind the Republicans.) Their policies on taxes and regulation at the state level are a big part of what's destroying the middle class.
Hearts and Minds
One of the most discouraging things about the fiasco in Washington is to hear people blaming everyone without distinction. Granted, the media has a lot to do with this with false equivalence 'reporting' and the fixation on "bipartisanship" which is a code phrase urging Democrats to give the Republicans what they want so we can all go back to obliviousness.
But, it's also reinforcing Republican memes when people are disgusted with government. While Republicans may be taking heat at the moment for their too outrageous to overlook behavior, they're still doing several things that advance their agenda.
For one thing, they are reinforcing the idea that people should have low expectations about government, regardless of who is running it. Second, as the Democrats are identified as "the party of Big Government" at every opportunity by Republicans, this trashes the Democratic brand. (And Democrats who try to run away from advocacy for government do just as much damage).
Third, by making politics messy, ugly, and just plain nasty, they cause too many people to be turned off by the idea of becoming involved in government - creating a vacuum which the extremists on the right are all too happy to fill. Too many people regard politics as something too vulgar to care about or pay attention to. And that's how Republicans get away with so much. They have their own media to push their framing of the issues, with no equivalent on the other side to counter it.
Dare to be Democratic
Democrats have a huge opportunity here, if only they dare reach for it. The actions of the Republicans in the House should be used to call into question the entire Republican agenda and the party's track record. For too long the triangulators and the Third Way apologists for the GOP have attempted to broaden the appeal of the Democratic Party by trying to blur the differences between the parties.
Some have referred to this as the 'Republican Lite' strategy. It involves 'hippie punching' - rejecting the more passionate part of the base (the part with unashamedly liberal ideas), chasing independents (who are notoriously fickle and don't turn out when really needed), and trying to co-opt Republican ideas and language to attract Republican moderates. It also involves sucking up to Big Money and Corporations, the better to appear Business-Friendly.
There are more than a few problems with this approach. It turns off the base. It makes the party appear wishy-washy on principles. It aids and abets Republican goals by meeting them sometimes more than half way. It cripples the ability of the party to present itself as an alternative - because so much of what it calls for fits right in with the GOP agenda. This makes it hard to attack the GOP record when so many on the left have their fingerprints all over it. And, frankly it concedes too much to the Right.
Democrats have to start standing up for the idea of government as a good thing. (It's not that hard to do. Lots of resources here.) They have to stand up for the idea that government is not inherently evil; it's a tool only as good as those who wield it - the hand on the controls and the attitude of the wielder makes a critical difference. Electing people who say government doesn't work it the surest way to keep it from working. Democrats have to dare to say that the private sector/free market/capitalism is not infallible, nor the only way to go. They have to insist that we need a better balance between the private and the public for both to thrive. There are enough horrible recent examples that this should not be a hard case to make.
They have to stop being polite and point out that none of the promises the Republicans have made since the days of Reagan have been met. They have to do it at press conferences, in speeches, and on the Sunday morning talking head shows. Being polite to Republicans is not the same thing as being a doormat - although Republicans appear to believe it is.
And let's face it. All the reaching out across the aisle to Republicans has had only three real results. It has legitimized Republican talking points. It's made it easier for Republicans to get what they want without giving in return. It's driven the Republicans even further to the right as they strive to keep daylight between themselves and anything with the least taint of 'surrender' to Democrats.
The current rift between the Tea-publicans, the Evangelicals, and the Old Guard/Neo-Cons should not be taken as a total break down of the party. They're not arguing about objectives so much as they're arguing tactics. They remain united in opposition to Democratic ideals - and real small "D" democracy. As radical as the Tea-publicans are, the rest of the party would have no problem with them if they succeeded in getting what they want. The party has put itself in a trap however.
Thanks to their safe districts and the volumes of money Citizens United has turned loose, House Republicans have a dilemma. They have to cater to the crazies they've been cultivating or risk being primaried by someone even more extreme. But, as the shutdown continues, more and more Americans are becoming disgusted with them. If Democrats push them hard on this, they either distance themselves from the Tea Party and risk a primary, or embrace the Tea Party and risk losing the general election.
It's an opportunity at the state level as well. With the flow of Federal Money and services disrupted, voters are starting to see direct consequences of supporting Republicans. It's not all about sending their money out to help brown people at their expense - it's actually causing them pain in their wallets. This is enough to raise questions about the Republican brand in the minds of people who might not normally think about it - and possibly to pay more attention to what's happening at state level. Again, this is an opportunity Democrats need to seize.
Winning the Battle AND the War
David Harris-Gershon (The Troubadour) points to a piece by Robert Reich explaining why it's not enough to "give Republican Bullies a Bloody Nose."
It appears that negotiations over the federal budget deficit are about to begin once again, and presumably Senate Republicans will insist that Obama and the Democrats give way on taxes and spending in exchange for reopening the government and raising the debt ceiling for at least another year.
But keeping the government running and paying the nation’s bills should never have been bargaining chits in the first place, and the President and Democrats shouldn’t begin to negotiate over future budgets until they’re taken off the table.
emphasis added
It should not be forgotten that "reasonable Republicans" are no less toxic to the body politic over time. Kill us quick or kill us slow - either way the Republican agenda is fatal sooner or later.
khyber900 has a summary of where things stand at the moment. By his reckoning, Harry Reid is taking the lead at the moment, playing 'Bad Cop' to the President's 'Good Cop' - and keeping the White House from reflexively making concessions. He's dealing with a Mitch McConnell who is increasingly nervous about his own re-election chances.
- Harry Reid has pushed the Senate GOP very aggressively. He wants a longer debt ceiling extension and a shorter CR in order to replace the sequester. It also appears that he is looking to replace much of the sequester in this proposed legislation, meaning that much of the sequester could theoretically be repealed effective this month.
If so, that would be good news. The sequester has dampened the recovery - there's no real justification for it in any case as it was always a sop to Republican faux hsyteria about government spending and the deficit - concerns that always vanish when Republicans are in the Driver's Seat.
Indeed, one wonders how it would play if the Senate Democrats had responded to House extortion demands with a few of their own on the budget resolution and the spending limit. How about a provision canceling the sequester immediately? How about requiring states that rejected the expansion of Medicaid take it up instead? How about a provision mandating a rise in the minimum wage to something approaching a living wage? There are sound economic arguments to make for each of those proposals, and ways to frame them that should "play in Peoria".
If nothing else, it would change the negotiating dynamic where Republicans make all the demands and Democrats....don't.
Republicans clearly do not regard Democrats as a legitimate choice for governing this country. Democrats need to stop apologizing for being Democrats and they need to stop averting their gaze from the GOP record. If the voting public seems to have a problem with long-term memory, it's up to Democrats to remind them and offer a real alternative.
Otherwise, Republicans will continue to lose battles but still gain in the larger war. It's that simple - and potentially fatal.
It's About Survival
In other circumstances, the war between two competing ideologies would be serious enough all by itself, but a potentially survivable irritation. However the increasing radicalization of the Republican Party may prove fatal as they keep our government from dealing with the real world and the impending threat of Climate Change. Their attack on education through privatization, their rejection of science, their obstruction of the functioning of government, their embrace of inequality, their doctrinal rigidity - all of this is not merely crippling efforts to deal with Climate Change - it's exacerbating the problem.
And Climate Change is not something we can ignore.
“Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes scarce, and large populations move in search of resources,” states the report. “Weakened and failing governments with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.”
The report notes that this global political instability could foster extremism, terrorism, or transnational crime which could threaten US security and interests in numerous ways. Instability may stretch domestic humanitarian and aid resources, as well as the US military in struggles to maintain social, political, and economic stability in affected regions. The US may also be pressured to take in migrants seeking to escape environmental degradation, or refugees escaping conflict or whose livelihood has been destroyed by ecological devastation. Such possibilities put an onus on the US to assess how capably it could address food security, internal migration, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and water scarcity at home, while also addressing them abroad.
The Republican world view is incapable of acknowledging this threat, let alone dealing with it. It's hard to see how market-based solutions, home-schooling, tax cuts, deregulation, more guns and traditional family values combine to deal with something like this - yet that's about all the GOP offers these days. The Republican approach to the Future has always been to reject it, deny it, and otherwise fail to deal with it at all until forced to - and sometimes not even then.
We do not have the luxury of allowing them to prevail. Their obsession with getting government down to where "it can be drowned in a bathtub" is suicide for us as a society and a nation. There's one answer to the question of just how big government should be that sidesteps ideology. It needs to be big enough to deal effectively with the challenges it faces - and it's hard to think of anything bigger than Climate Change. We have to win not just this battle but the longer war, because it's past time to start gearing up for the bigger fight ahead, the fight to keep this planet livable. We can't do that if we go into the fight with our biggest tool for the job deliberately crippled by the paranoid and short-sighted minds that currently run the Republican party.