While David Nir pointed out in the DKE section that though things don't look good for Democrats in the Montana U.S. Senate race:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Things are not looking good for incumbent Senator Thad Cochran (R. MS):
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's new Mississippi Senate poll finds Thad Cochran in serious danger of losing the Republican primary if he seeks another term next year. 55% of GOP primary voters say they would prefer a 'more conservative' alternative to Cochran, compared to just 35% who say they support the long time Senator. And although Cochran still leads primary challenger Chris McDaniel 44/38, much of that lead is attributable to his higher name recognition. Among the 50% of primary voters who have heard of McDaniel, whether they like him or not, Cochran trails his challenger 60/29.
Cochran's approval numbers with Republican voters have dropped precipitously over the last two years. In November of 2011 we found him with a 74/14 approval spread with them, but that's declined now to 45/42. Unsurprisingly Cochran's problems are coming with the furthest right segment of his party. Among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' he has just a 34/55 approval spread, trails McDaniel 51/32 head to head, and loses out to a generic 'more conservative' alternative 74/22.
If Cochran is the Republican nominee for the Senate next year the seat likely won't be competitive. He actually has a positive approval rating with Democrats at 44/40 and that crossover support would make him close to unbeatable in a general election. He leads Travis Childers, who has actually floated the possibility of running, 50/33 in a head to head. He's also up 50/37 on Ronnie Musgrove and 45/43 on Jim Hood in hypothetical contests.
If McDaniel is the Republican nominee though it looks like there's at least some chance at a competitive race forming. He leads both Childers (41/38) and Musgrove (44/41) by just 3 points in head to heads and actually trails Hood by a couple points at 43/41. McDaniel just doesn't have the same kind of support across party lines that Cochran does. - PPP, 11/19/13
PPP surveyed 502 Mississippi voters, including an oversample of 422 Republican primary voters, from November 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +
- 4.4% and for the Republican primary part it’s +-4.8%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
So if we actually have a shot at winning the Senate seat in Mississippi, a few things need to happen. Cochran needs to retire or lose his primary to McDaniel which right now looks very possible. But even is Cochran retires, he isn't a sure thing to win his party's nominee. Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R. MS) is a tight second in the primary with McDaniel leading 25% to Hosemann's 23%. Congressman Gregg Harper (R. MS-03) gets 15%, Congressman Steve Palazzo (R. MS-04) gets 13%, Congressman Alan Nunnelee (R. MS-01) gets 8%, State Auditor Stacey Pickering gets 5% and Lt. Governor Tate Reeves only gets 3%.
We need McDaniel to beat Hosemann because Hosemann is the stronger candidate. He leads Childers 46/36, Musgrove 46/38 and only leads Hood 42/41. Now word on if Musgrove or Hood are taking a look at the race but Childers is looking into it:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Former congressman Travis Childers (D-Miss.) says he is considering entering the Mississippi Senate race next year — particularly if longtime Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) opts not to seek another term.
Conservative and tea party groups have lined up behind GOP candidate and state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who got into the race in advance of Cochran's announcement. The prospect of a hard-fought GOP primary has Democrats hoping to capitalize in a tough state.
Childers said he is "looking at it."
" 'Looking at it' is probably about what I would want to say right now," Childers told Post Politics. "I think a lot of folks are watching Senator Cochran to see what his moves are."
Cochran has said he will make a decision by the end of the month.
Childers said he would be "less apt" to run if Cochran does, though he declined to rule it out. He sounds as though he would attempt to appeal to Cochran supporters, calling it "kind of odd" that McDaniel got into the race before Cochran's announcement. - Washington Post, 11/15/13
It's looking the South of all places is where the Tea Party is peeking. We have competitive races in Georgia and Kentucky and I would never have thought Mississipi would be in that category. This race is worth keeping your eye on. Stay tuned.