Americans love polls. They get plenty of them. But when it comes to rating a president, they are essentially meaningless and actually irrelevant.
Take a quick look at say Fox News, and they are breathlessly eager to trot out the latest decline in President Obama’s popularity, credibility, confidence, leadership or whatever. With a mixture of seriousness (mixed with a bit of silent pleasure, they want to inform you the president now has something like a 60 percent disapproval/40 percent approval rating. Sounds serious – but in reality it is irrelevant, mostly inconsequential, and historically not uncommon.
Most important reason this matters little, or not at all: Obama is electively running for nothing! Indeed, he will likely never be on any ballot for any office, so his ratings now are meaningless from that perspective. Moreover, his current “low” ratings are extremely common among presidents ever since professional polling began (about the 1930s when George Gallup ran some opinion polls on then President Franklin Roosevelt). And any rating that has been a “snapshot in time” has no relevance to the ultimate rating for a president in historical terms. Additionally, much also depends when in the administration the poll is taken, what are the questions asked, and who is doing the polling.
The latest polls show Obama with something like a 39 percent approval (he has had a bit lower ratings as well). The beloved Ronald Reagan had a low rating of 33 percent. The now idolized JFK, once had a rating as low as 27 percent. And FDR, now rated as one of our best presidents, had a low rating of 36 percent. And speaking of low ratings, although there was no polling in Lincoln’s time, he would have now doubt been the most reviled president in history with a hatred so deep it led to his death; and he is now regarded as probably one of the two best presidents we have ever had. The point being polling is mostly irrelevant to a president’s proficiency and ultimate legacy.
In addition, Obama carries a huge weight of baggage when it comes to polling, and it is surprising he scores as well as he has done (in January of 2009, right after election, he had a 69 percent positive rating). His average rating thus far over the term of his presidency is about 49 percent – virtually the same as all other presidents.
To begin with, no matter how we wish to ignore it, his race has some factor in polling. Then there is the media. The contention of a liberal media is mostly a myth, especially when it comes to talk radio. The preponderance of these commentators is distinctly conservative. The fact is there are aggressive and consistent media forces that criticize Obama ceaselessly. That has to shape opinion to some extent.
Beyond that, Obama is working with a recalcitrant Congress that has stated goal to see his presidency fail (consider Mitch McConnell’s comment on this subject). That has a media component too, with House leaders regularly on television excoriating Obamacare, leadership, lack of compromise, or whatever. No doubt there is an element of the public that buys into those comments, and it has to be reflected in Obama’s ratings. On the other side of the aisle, progressives have been far less effective in protecting the administration. Especially ineffective is the Democratic National Committee which could be a response to the attacks on Obama, but is not only mostly silent, but apparently inept at creating effective answers to the attacks.
As to whether the criticism is warranted, some likely is. For example, the gaff on no loss of insurance with the ACA was a legitimate error. And it is fair to concede he might have performed more effectively at other times. As a progressive, I have sometimes felt frustration. But, taking a macro view of his administration to date, he has significant assets to bring to his legacy. Considering his achievements to date:
• He said he would get us out of Iraq during his administration…and he did
• He said he would get us out of Afghanistan…and he will
• He said he would present America is a signature healthcare plan to insure all…and he has
• He accomplished the difficult task of removing dangerous chemical weapons from a dictator
• He has the possibility of bringing some accommodation (and aborting nuclear weapons) from Iran; while yet to be achieved, a first step has been taken
• Most important, he took an economy that was in shambles and in serious decline, and has turned it around to the point where it is now ticking up and is in many ways quite robust
There are other accomplishments, but the point is these polls showing a weak, somewhat unpopular president are not really meaningful. They probably do not matter to Obama as he goes about his task of running the country; and they should matter very little to the American people. The one advantage they could have provided to the administration (as it sometimes has), would have been greater leverage with Congress (particularly the House): but they are committed to a course of obstruction, so greater influence with that body isn’t going to happen anyway. The bottom line: forget the polls, they are essentially… irrelevant.