Election Day 2014 is slated to fall on Tuesday, November 4. In this midterm election, Californians will go to the polls to determine control of their state. All 8 state executive offices are up for election, as well as all 53 congressional seats, the 20 even-numbered state senate seats, all 80 state assembly seats, and all 4 Board of Equalization seats, making 165 elections in total.
It's always incredibly hard to predict how elections will go when they are so far into the future. However, this is not to say that there aren't broad themes that we can draw:
- This election will be a referendum on the total Democratic control of state government. 2014 will have to show everyone that the 2012 results were not a fluke but a harbinger of things to come.
- High (relatively high, at least) approval ratings for current government performance boost Democratic chances. Jerry Brown, the wizened face of California resurgence and leadership, most likely gains more from this than anyone else. Democrats have mostly been responsible in governance, cognizant of the fact that they have to defy undeserved stereotypes and doomsday predictions. They have hewed to a moderately progressive line and refused to raise taxes despite having the votes to do so. To most people, that's good enough.
- The Democratic state party machine has to show that it is more robust than ever before. In the red tidal wave of 2010 that washed over everywhere else, we managed to hold the line and keep all our seats, even gaining one in the state assembly. That is a high bar that we have set for ourselves.
- The California Republican Party is still weak and rudderless. The party establishment is still very much in charge, as Tea Party activists and Paulists have yet to gain sufficient traction in the state GOP to take over the apparatus. However, they haven't quite learned how to compete in a state that is much more liberal than what they are used to. They also have a very weak bench, decimated by demographics and desertion.
This election should be viewed as a chance for Democrats to consolidate their control. The Republicans are down, but they're not completely out. They have yet to hit on the Next Big ThingTM, but their current chair, former GOP state legislative leader Jim Brulte, is one of the best political minds in the state. Brulte, the last leader to win a GOP majority in the state legislature, is one of the very few people who can give the state GOP a semi-decent chance of turning around. The Democrats should never get complacent and simply rely on demographics and natural trends to do the grunt work. Political winds are fleeting, and the Dems should work hard to keep it on their backs for generations to come.
But let's talk about now and next year. Follow me below the flip.
For reference:
California
08/12 PVI: D+10
2012 PVI: D+11
2012 Pres results: 60.2% Obama, 37.1% Romney
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Statewide offices
Governor
Incumbent: Jerry Brown (D)
2010 results: 53.8% Jerry Brown (D), 40.9% Meg Whitman (R)
Major candidates: Jerry Brown (D), Tim Donnelly (R), Abel Maldonado (R), George Radanovich (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Realistically, the only major candidate is Brown. Former lieutenant governor Abel Maldonado is the establishment favorite, but he's as inspiring as used tissue. State assemblyman and former Minuteman militia founder Tim Donnelly is a Tea Party favorite, but that's a political death sentence in California. No one knows who George Radanovich is. At this rate, Brown may win Orange County again.
Lieutenant Governor
Incumbent: Gavin Newsom (D)
2010 results: 50.2% Gavin Newsom (D), 39.0% Abel Maldonado (R)
Major candidates: Gavin Newsom (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Many people dislike Newsom for many reasons, but he has yet to draw a top-notch challenger for this inconsequential office. The GOP might just put up a sacrificial lamb during the filing deadline.
Attorney General
Incumbent: Kamala Harris (D)
2010 results: 46.1% Kamala Harris (D), 45.3% Steve Cooley (R)
Major candidates: Kamala Harris (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Kamala Harris was widely considered the most vulnerable candidate on the 2010 Democratic statewide ticket, and her election results showed. That doesn't stop her from staying relatively low-key, racking up goodwill, defying her detractors, and becoming near-invincible in her reelection prospects.
Controller
Incumbent: John Chiang (D)
2010 results: 55.2% John Chiang (D), 36.1% Tony Strickland (R)
Major candidates: John Perez (D), Betty Yee (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Chiang is termed out of this office and is running for Treasurer (see below). Current Board of Equalization member Betty Yee was long considered a lock on this office after Treasurer Bill Lockyer bowed out of the race, but termed-out state assembly speaker John Perez jumped in, setting up this situation. Perez, being a prominent Latino gay politician from Los Angeles with a larger warchest and a wider political network, renders Yee, an Asian American from Northern California, the decided underdog.
Treasurer
Incumbent: Bill Lockyer (D)
2010 results: 56.5% Bill Lockyer (D), 36.2% Mimi Walters (R)
Major candidates: John Chiang (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Bill Lockyer, a longtime Democratic stalwart with a elected political career stretching back four decades, is termed out and has hung up his spurs under a cloud started by his wife Nadia. Chiang has jumped here for his next eight years of employment.
Secretary of State
Incumbent: Debra Bowen (D)
2010 results: 53.2% Debra Bowen (D), 38.2% Damon Dunn (R)
Major candidates: Derek Cressman (D), Alex Padilla (D), Pete Peterson (R), Leland Yee (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Bowen, the progressive hero best known for her work in voting machine security, is termed out. This throws the field wide open, with the top four candidates drawn equally from elected office and policy think tanks. Cressman is a vice president of Common Cause, while Peterson is the executive director of Pepperdine University's Davenport Institute. Alex Padilla and Leland Yee are termed-out state senators.
Insurance Commissioner
Incumbent: Dave Jones (D)
2010 results: 50.6% Dave Jones (D), 37.6% Mike Villines (R)
Major candidates: Dave Jones (D), Ted Gaines (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This obscure but important office regulates insurance in the state, in some cases having the ability to deny insurance rate hikes. Especially with the Affordable Care Act being implemented, it is important to maintain Democratic control of this office, which is projected to happen. State senator Ted Gaines has declared but is pretty much a sacrificial lamb.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Incumbent: Tom Torlakson (D)
2010 results: 54.6% Tom Torlakson (D), 44.9% Larry Aceves (I)
Major candidates: Tom Torlakson (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Technically, this is a nonpartisan office. Also, unlike other offices, if a candidate gets a majority in June, that candidate wins outright and there is no November election. Torlakson has mostly stayed below the radar, so he should clinch another four-year term in June.
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Congress
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates a major intraparty race.
Safe Dem |
Likely Dem |
Lean Dem |
Tossup |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
2, 3, 5,
6, 9, 11,
12, 13, 14,
15, 16, 17†,
18, 19, 20,
24, 27, 28,
29, 30, 32,
33, 34, 35,
37, 38, 40,
41, 43, 44,
46, 47, 51,
53
|
26, 31
|
7, 52
|
36
|
10, 21
|
25
|
1, 4, 8,
22, 23, 39,
42, 45, 48,
49, 50
|
34 CDs |
2 CDs |
2 CDs |
1 CD |
2 CDs |
1 CD |
11 CDs |
CD-07 - Sacramento suburbs: Folsom, Rancho Cordova, Elk Grove
Incumbent: Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove)
08/12 PVI: EVEN
2012 PVI: D+1
2012 Pres results: 50.7% Obama, 46.7% Romney
2012 Cong results: 51.7% Ami Bera (D), 48.3% Dan Lungren (R)
Candidates: Ami Bera (D), Igor Birman (R), Elizabeth Emken (R), Doug Ose (R)
Rating:
Lean Democratic
If recent elections are of any indication, once a swingy Sacramento suburban district turns blue, it doesn't look back. That doesn't mean it's safe, and Bera knows that. He has made the necessary "vote-the-district" moves and is generally uncontroversial. He'll face stiff competition, especially from Birman, who is congressman Tom McClintock's former chief of staff, and former congressman Doug Ose, but he has history on his side.
CD-10 - Stanislaus: Modesto, Turlock, Tracy
Incumbent: Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
08/12 PVI: R+1
2012 PVI: D+1
2012 pres results: 50.5% Obama, 46.9% Romney
2012 cong results: 52.7% Jeff Denham (R), 47.3% Jose Hernandez (D)
Candidates: Jeff Denham (R), Michael Eggman (D)
Rating: Lean Republican
Denham's voting to continue the shutdown isn't going to help him, but Eggman's fundraising has been lackluster. His connection to his sister, assemblywoman Susan Eggman, doesn't make this look any better. Without any further developments in Eggman's favor and no other competitive races in the area, I'm keeping this at lean GOP.
CD-21 - Southwestern Central Valley: Hanford, Wasco, Bakersfield
Incumbent: David Valadao (R-Hanford)
08/12 PVI: D+2
2012 PVI: D+5
2012 pres results: 54.6% Obama, 43.5% Romney
2012 cong results: 57.8% David Valadao (R), 42.2% John Hernandez (D)
Candidates: David Valadao (R), John Hernandez (D), Amanda Renteria (D)
Rating: Lean Republican
This district is riddled with anonymous Democratic candidates and volatile Democratic turnout. The DCCC is backing Renteria, former chief of staff to U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow who was raised in the Central Valley. Hernandez is the failed 2012 candidate. Without knowing how Renteria will do in fundraising and endorsements and given the DCCC's poor track record in this district in 2012, I'm leaving this stuck in the GOP column.
CD-25 - Northern LA County: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley
Incumbent: Buck McKeon (R-Santa Clarita)
08/12 PVI: R+3
2012 PVI: R+2
2012 pres results: 47.8% Obama, 49.7% Romney
2012 cong results: 54.8% Buck McKeon (R), 45.2% Lee Rogers (D)
Candidates: Buck McKeon (R)?, Steve Knight (R)?, Lee Rogers (D), Cameron Smyth (R)?, Tony Strickland (R)?, Scott Wilk (R)?
Rating: Likely Republican
McKeon's 2012 performance and the surprise flip of the mostly overlapping AD-36 to the Democrats has struck the fear of God into Republicans here, and McKeon might decide to simply retire rather than constantly fight for reelection. Rumor is that he wants Tony Strickland to succeed him, but the GOP establishment in the district hates his guts and want one of their own. State senator Steve Knight, former assemblyman Cameron Smyth, and current assemblyman Scott Wilk are supposedly trying to decide amongst themselves who to defer to if McKeon does retire. Meanwhile, podiatrist Lee Rogers is fundraising at a rapid clip with little competition on his side. His only problem is that the district voted for Romney and it may take one more cycle to finally flip.
CD-26 - Ventura County: Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks
Incumbent: Julia Brownley (D-Oak Park)
08/12 PVI: D+4
2012 PVI: D+4
2012 pres results: 54.0% Obama, 43.7% Romney
2012 cong results: 52.7% Julia Brownley (D), 47.3% Tony Strickland (R)
Candidates: Julia Brownley (D), Jeff Gorell (R)?, Tony Strickland (R)?
Rating: Likely Democratic
The only reason why this district isn't safe is because of state assemblyman Jeff Gorell. Gorell, a Navy reservist who represents an assembly district wholly contained in CD-26, is the only person who would make this seat competitive. Even then, Brownley has the advantage.
CD-31 - Northeastern Inland Empire: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
Incumbent: Gary Miller (R-Rancho Cucamonga)
08/12 PVI: D+6
2012 PVI: D+7
2012 pres results: 57.2% Obama, 40.6% Romney
2012 cong results: 55.2% Gary Miller (R), 44.8% Bob Dutton (R)
Candidates: Gary Miller (R), Pete Aguilar (D), Joe Baca (D), Eloise Gomez Reyes (D), Danny Tillman (D)
Rating: Likely Democratic
Of course, this rating is contingent on a Democrat actually making it to the general election. Miller seems to have given up any pretense of moderation, hoping that being a stalwart conservative will drag him across the finish line in this light blue district. Without a second major GOP candidate, however, lightning will probably not strike twice and Miller is most likely screwed no matter what he does.
CD-36 - Coachella Valley: Palm Springs, Coachella, Hemet
Incumbent: Raul Ruiz (D-Palm Desert)
08/12 PVI: R+1
2012 PVI: D+1
2012 pres results: 50.7% Obama, 47.5% Romney
2012 cong results: 52.9% Raul Ruiz (D), 47.1% Mary Bono Mack (R)
Candidates: Raul Ruiz (D), Brian Nestande (R)
Rating: Tossup
Ruiz has mostly walked a fine line in his first term, but assemblyman Brian Nestande will be his strongest opponent. Nestande has a bit of a moderate streak, bucking the party line several times and even resigning his caucus chairmanship for voting to close a tax loophole (since it was considered a "tax increase" in their world). Ruiz's chances hinge on volatile Latino turnout, and maybe someone can harvest the heat emanating from this race to use as renewable energy.
CD-52 - San Diego, Poway, Coronado
Incumbent: Scott Peters (D-San Diego)
08/12 PVI: D+2
2012 PVI: D+2
2012 pres results: 52.1% Obama, 45.7% Romney
2012 cong results: 51.2% Scott Peters (D), 48.8% Brian Bilbray (R)
Candidates: Scott Peters (D), Carl DeMaio (R), Kirk Jorgensen (R)
Rating: Lean Democratic
This district actually got a bit redder in 2012 compared to 2008, but Peters should still be on top given his strong fundraising, personal wealth, and inoffensiveness. DeMaio, who lost to the now-disgraced Bob Filner in the 2012 San Diego mayoral race, has the GOP establishment at his side of the room. Jorgensen has been touring the usual Tea Party circles, even earning the endorsement of neighboring congressman Duncan Hunter. Who knows, DeMaio may be teabagged before he makes it to the city hall restroom general election.
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State senate
Due to the quirks of redistricting, these even-numbered districts are being used for the first time and are often radically different from their predecessors, if there is even a corresponding predecessor.
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates a race with no incumbent. There are nine open seats.
Safe Dem |
Likely Dem |
Lean Dem |
Tossup |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
2*, 6*, 10*,
18*, 20*, 22,
24, 26, 30,
32*, 40
|
|
14, 34*
|
|
12
|
|
4, 8, 16,
28*, 36*, 38
|
11 SDs |
0 SDs |
2 SDs |
0 SDs |
1 SD |
0 SDs |
6 SDs |
15 incumbent Dem
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 incumbent GOP
|
26 SDs |
0 SDs |
2 SDs |
0 SDs |
1 SD |
0 SDs |
11 SDs |
SD-12 - Central Valley: Ceres, Merced, Salinas
Incumbent: Anthony Cannella (R-Ceres)
08/12 PVI: D+6
2012 PVI: D+8
2012 pres results: 57.6% Obama, 40.3% Romney
Candidates: Anthony Cannella (R), Tom Hallinan (D)
Rating:
Lean Republican
Despite the Democratic margin, this district has been held by the GOP since 1994. Cannella has mostly stuck to a moderate record and made few splashes. Hallinan is the city attorney of tiny Patterson, but is pretty much unknown. Giving this a lean GOP might actually be too generous.
SD-14 - Central Valley: Fresno, Hanford, Bakersfield
Incumbent: Andy Vidak (R-Hanford)
08/12 PVI: D+6
2012 PVI: D+8
2012 pres results: 58.3% Obama, 39.8% Romney
Candidates: Andy Vidak (R), Leticia Perez (D)
Rating: Lean Democratic
It's easy to run around with your hair on fire after the special election loss, but it's important to remember that Vidak's performance in that election is his ceiling. Midterm elections have lower Latino turnout than presidential elections but higher ones than special elections. Yes, the district got slightly redder after redistricting, but is swapping Coalinga for Woodlake really a substantial difference? Perez will have a hard fight on her hands, but this race should mirror the identical situation in 1994, when Democrat Jim Costa lost to GOPer Phil Wyman in a 1993 special for this same seat but won in the 1994 general, making Wyman the only Republican west of the Mississippi to lose that year.
SD-34 - Northwestern Orange County: Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Santa Ana
Incumbent: Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana)
08/12 PVI: D+1
2012 PVI: D+4
2012 pres results: 53.3% Obama, 44.4% Romney
Candidates: Janet Nguyen (R), Jim Silva (R), Jose Solorio (D)
Rating: Lean Democratic
Burgeoning Latino growth has the district zooming leftward rapidly, the reddening effects of Huntington Beach notwithstanding. While it is certainly marginal, the PVI shifted leftward five points between 2008 and 2012, and its continuing effects have boosted Democratic chances. With Correa termed out, Solorio has taken up the banner and has mostly consolidated all Democratic support behind him. On the other side Orange County supervisor Janet Nguyen has sucked all the energy out of the GOP room, leaving former assemblyman Jim Silva marooned far from shore. With the state senate supermajority at stake, this district will bear the brunt of the massive spending that dominates California elections.
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State assembly
As it is still extremely early, the candidate field is quite bare. Candidates may not emerge until after November or the filing deadline in March.
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates a race with no incumbent. There are 20 open seats, exactly one-fourth of the chamber.
Safe Dem |
Likely Dem |
Lean Dem |
Tossup |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
2*, 4*, 7*,
9*, 10, 11,
13, 14, 15*,
16*, 17*, 18,
19, 20, 22,
24, 25*, 27,
28*, 29, 30,
31, 37, 39,
41, 43, 45,
46, 47, 48,
49, 50, 51,
52, 53*, 54,
56*, 57, 58,
59, 61, 62*,
63, 64*, 69,
70*, 78, 79,
80
|
8, 21, 66
|
32, 65
|
36, 40
|
60
|
44
|
1, 3*, 5,
6, 12, 23,
26*, 33*, 34,
35, 38, 42*,
55*, 67, 68,
71, 72, 73*,
74, 75, 76,
77
|
49 ADs |
3 ADs |
2 ADs |
2 ADs |
1 AD |
1 AD |
22 ADs |
AD-08 - Eastern Sacramento suburbs: Arden-Arcade, Carmichael, Rancho Cordova
Incumbent: Ken Cooley (D-Rancho Cordova)
08/12 PVI: D+1
2012 PVI: D+2
2012 pres results: 51.6% Obama, 45.5% Romney
2012 assm results: 54.3% Ken Cooley (D), 45.7% Peter Tateishi (R)
Candidates: Ken Cooley (D)
Rating:
Likely Democratic
As previously mentioned under CD-07, once a Sacramento suburban seat turns blue, it stays blue. Since this seat is bluer than CD-07, its chances of staying in the blue column are much higher.
AD-21 - Demosaur Country: Modesto, Ceres, Merced
Incumbent: Adam Gray (D-Merced)
08/12 PVI: D+4
2012 PVI: D+6
2012 pres results: 55.6% Obama, 42.0% Romney
2012 assm results: 58.2% Adam Gray (D), 41.8% Jack Mobley (R)
Candidates: Adam Gray (D)
Rating: Likely Democratic
The CD-10 and SD-12 races may put this on the map, but otherwise Gray should have a decent chance of reelection. Unlike CD-10 in 2012 and SD-12 in 2010, no big money was spent last year, and Republican Jack Mobley was abandoned by the state GOP to fend for himself.
AD-32 - Southwestern Central Valley: Hanford, Delano, Bakersfield
Incumbent: Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)
08/12 PVI: D+3
2012 PVI: D+6
2012 pres results: 56.2% Obama, 41.8% Romney
2012 assm results: 52.9% Rudy Salas (D), 47.1% Pedro Rios (R)
Candidates: Rudy Salas (D)
Rating: Lean Democratic
This seat has been competitive for the past twelve years, and that's not going to change anytime soon. However, Democrats do have the advantage despite lower Latino turnout. The overlapping CD-21 and SD-14 may also boost turnout here. Salas has also showed an extremely moderate streak, breaking party ranks quite frequently (presumably with the blessing of leadership).
AD-36 - Antelope Valley: Lancaster, Palmdale, California City
Incumbent: Steve Fox (D-Palmdale)
08/12 PVI: R+3
2012 PVI: R+1
2012 pres results: 48.8% Obama, 48.5% Romney
2012 assm results: 50.1% Steve Fox (D), 49.9% Ron Smith (R)
Candidates: Steve Fox (D), Lou Gonzales (R)
Rating: Tossup
The race that, with a margin of 145 votes, stunned election junkies of all sides is now on everyone's radar. In 2012, Fox pulled ahead of Republican Ron Smith on the day before the legislative session opened. Smith had already attended orientation, been assigned an office, and was hiring staff and drafting bills before getting unceremoniously vaporized from the assembly rolls. This time around, GOP car dealer Lou Gonzales is the torchbearer, but the Democrats aren't leaving Fox stranded in the desert. Fox has mostly avoided controversial votes, voting against gun control bills and abstaining on the minimum wage increase. Knowing the base that helped elect him, he toed the party line on many immigration bills, including AB 60, the bill granting driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants. Watch for this dustup in November.
AD-40 - Northeastern Inland Empire: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
Incumbent: Mike Morrell (R-Rancho Cucamonga)
08/12 PVI: D+2
2012 PVI: D+3
2012 pres results: 53.1% Obama, 44.7% Romney
2012 assm results: 50.4% Mike Morrell (R), 49.6% Russ Warner (D)
Candidates: Mike Morrell (R), Art Bustamonte (D), Elvira Harris (D)
Rating: Tossup
In 2012, Democrat Russ Warner lost by 1,018 votes against the incumbent Morrell, and this was with an uncompetitive (partisan-wise) CD-31, which overlaps almost perfectly. Now, hopefully with a Dem-on-GOP race in CD-31 this cycle, the downballot effects should turn Morrell into toast. He has also shown no signs of moderation despite having a much more liberal district than before.
AD-44 - Coastal Ventura: Oxnard, Camarillo, Thousand Oaks
Incumbent: Jeff Gorell (R-Camarillo)
08/12 PVI: D+2
2012 PVI: D+2
2012 pres results: 52.4% Obama, 45.5% Romney
2012 assm results: 52.9% Jeff Gorell (R), 47.1% Eileen MacEnery (D)
Candidates: Jeff Gorell (R)
Rating: Likely Republican with Gorell, Tossup without Gorell
Unlike many of this fellow caucus members, Gorell is a moderate with an appealing background (see under CD-26). However, even then he held on with only 52.9% of the vote in 2012 against an underfunded and near-anonymous Democrat. He should still be able to win one more term here, but when he's gone the GOP will be finished here.
AD-60 - Northwestern Riverside: Corona, Jurupa Valley, Riverside
Incumbent: Eric Linder (R-Corona)
08/12 PVI: EVEN
2012 PVI: D+2
2012 pres results: 51.9% Obama, 45.8% Romney
2012 assm results: 51.8% Eric Linder (R), 48.2% Jose Luis Perez (D)
Candidates: Eric Linder (R), Jacob Daruvala (D)
Rating: Lean Republican
While much of the money was directed to CD-41 (Takano), SD-31 (Roth), and AD-61 (Medina) and saw all three winning blowout victories (Medina in particular with 61%), woefully ignored Democrat Jose Luis Perez nearly pulled a surprise with 48.2% against Linder, vice chair of the Riverside County GOP. This time around, with Takano, Roth, and Medina safe in their seats, Democrats have set their sights on Linder. However, the only Democrat in the race is 17(!)-year-old Jacob Daruvala, so I'm going to wait and see.
AD-65 - Northern Orange County: Fullerton, Buena Park, Anaheim
Incumbent: Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton)
08/12 PVI: EVEN
2012 PVI: D+2
2012 pres results: 51.9% Obama, 45.7% Romney
2012 assm results: 52.0% Sharon Quirk-Silva (D), 48.0% Chris Norby (R)
Candidates: Sharon Quirk-Silva (D), Young Kim (R)
Rating: Lean Democratic
Quirk-Silva's 2012 campaign deserves an award considering who ran it and how well it was run. Democratic party organizations also poured $292,000 in the final weeks of the campaign. Life should be a bit easier this time around with her incumbency and the full firepower of the Democratic state apparatus behind her. Her opponent is Young Kim, a Korean American staffer for Congressman Ed Royce, which means serious competition. Still, Quirk-Silva has the edge in this race.
AD-66 - South Bay: Redondo Beach, Torrance, Palos Verdes
Incumbent: Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance)
08/12 PVI: D+4
2012 PVI: D+5
2012 pres results: 54.2% Obama, 43.2% Romney
2012 assm results: 54.8% Al Muratsuchi (D), 45.2% Craig Huey (R)
Candidates: Al Muratsuchi (D), Ned Vaughn (R)
Rating: Likely Democratic
Muratsuchi's 10-point win in 2012 against Republican millionaire and former congressional candidate Craig Huey was quite large for a swingy seat. However, it might be a sign of the times: no Republican will win this seat except in special elections and GOP waves, even if you're a Hollywood actor like Ned Vaughn.
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As you can see, while the "Overton window" of swing seats only shifts slightly from the 2012 elections, many of the Democratic gains seemed to be locked in for good while Republican seats drift a bit more towards the blue line. Since same-day voter registration will not be in effect until at least 2015, there will be no "surge" of Democratic performance of the type that we saw with online voter registration in 2012. How well Democrats do will depend entirely on campaign machinations.
Of course, the ratings may change dramatically over the next year depending on various factors such as retirement, candidate quality, and who makes it to the general election. If your favorite candidate was written off here, it's not the end of the world and there is time to redeem him- or herself.
With that, let the 2014 electoral prognostications begin!