Just as the Conservatives had to unskew the polls to be convinced that they were going to win the 2012 elections, they are now just as convinced that Obamacare (ACA) is about to go into a death spiral because not enough young people will sign up. Once again, they have to jump in the, Global Warming is a hoax, Jesus rode a dinosaur, Romney is going to win by a landside, Fox News conservative reality bubble to deny the facts.
From Sarah Kliff at the W.P., here's why the spiral won't happen.
experts at the Kaiser Family Foundation who have put together a new brief analyzing what would happen if young adults snubbed the Affordable Care Act. Even if young people sign up at half the rate the administration hopes for, it would nudge premiums up only by a few percentage points, their report says.
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If young adults (those under 35) were 25 percent less likely than the rest of the population to sign up for Obamacare, they would represent 33 percent of exchange enrollees -- rather than 40 percent. This means there would be fewer young people to subsidize older insurance subscribers. To make up that difference, the experts estimated, insurers would need to increase premiums by a terrifying ... 1 percent. Yes, exactly 1 percent.
Levitt, Claxton and Damico also tested a scenario where young adults are half as likely as older shoppers to enroll. In that case, the younger enrollees would make up only a quarter of the exchange market. Premiums would fall 2.5 percent short of covering subscribers.
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"I think it shows age is important, but not super important," Levitt says. "And that also depends a lot on your perspective. An increase of 2.5 percent isn't going to precipitate a death spiral.
We also need to Remember that people who don't buy insurance have to pay a fine. It's not a big fine, but it will certainly help keep those premiums from rising too fast. My guess is that a good portion of the people who don't purchase insurance may be of the Tea Bagger variety. So in an ironic way, they are going to be making a small contribution to the success of the ACA whether they like it or not.
So keep those delusional pipe dreams a coming conservative bubble blowers. There's nothing like escaping reality to get your fear mongering adrenaline boiling.