It's funny how the major narrative surround a current event can turn on a dime. In the past few days there have been 2 suicide bombings in the Russian city of Volgograd, killing some 34 innocent civilians. That toll may rise, as many are still hospitalized. Not too long ago the major buzz surrounding the Winter Olympics in Sochi was whether or not Russia would allow openly gay athletes and their partners to participate in the Games. At least for me, that narrative is now overshadowed by security concerns and the threat of terrorist attacks.
In addition to the most recent suicide bombings, Volgograd was also rocked last October by a suicide bombing on another public bus, which killed seven people. In all three cases, the attacks were carried out by Chechen rebels. (One bomber reportedly was from Dagestan, the country of birth of the Boston Marathon bombers)
Dokku Umarov, the leader of the Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus, issued a statement six months ago promising a strike on the Olympics in Sochi, urging his followers to use all means to derail the Games:
they are planning to hold the games on the bones of many, many Muslims buried on our land by the Black Sea. It is incumbent on us as Muslims not to permit that, resorting to any methods Allah allows us.
In his first public comments since the latest terror attack in Volgograd, Putin had this to say:
I am certain that we will fiercely and consistently continue the fight against terrorists until their complete annihilation
The opening ceremony for the Sochi Games is less than six weeks away and security measures, which have been a primary concern ever since the Munich Games of 1972, are now at the forefront.
As I read through the news articles concerning these attacks, and the measures that Putin is planning to put into place, I can already anticipate some grumbling, perhaps, by those who see the Russian response as too heavy handed. It has caused me to wonder what our own response would be if this was happening on American soil, and to American civilians. What would WE do? What would YOU do?
I don't pretend to know the entire history surrounding the seemingly constant conflict between Russia and the predominantly Muslim tribal regions of the Caucasus. It dates back to the 1500's. However valid their grievances and political aspirations may be, however, I can't justify the means by which they have pursued them over the past 15 years or so. A brief summary of the terror attacks in Russia by the hands of Chechen terrorists might be warranted, for those who have forgotten or never paid much attention in the first place.
In 1995 a group of 80-200 armed Chechan separatist seized a hospital in Southern Russia, holding as many as 2000 civilians hostage. After a 3 day seige, during which several hostages were summarily executed, the hospital was stormed by Russian forces. Some 140 people were killed, and another 400 plus injured.
In 1999 Chechen militants were responsible for 5 apartment bombings in Russia, which claimed the lives of some 300 civilians, wounding several hundred more.
In 2002, 40 to 50 Chechen militants seized the crowded Dubrovka Theater in Moscow, holding 850 theater goers hostage for 2 1/2 days. Russian forces used an undisclosed gas that was pumped into the ventilation system of the theater to subdue the militants, resulting in the death of all of the militants and 130 of the hostages.
After a relative lull in violence in the mid '00's, terror incidents again ratcheted up in 2008. According to the Council on Foreign Relations:
Incidents of violence rose from 795 in 2008 to 1,100 in 2009, and suicide bombings quadrupled in 2009, the majority of which occurred in Chechnya.
An attack on the Nevsky Express train, used by members of the business and political elite, in November 2009 killed twenty-seven people.
In March 2010, two female suicide bombers detonated bombs in a Moscow metro station located near the headquarters of the security services, killing thirty-nine people. Two days later, two bombs exploded in the town of Kizlyar, in Russia's North Caucasus, killing at least twelve people.
In 2011, Chechen militant leader Doku Umarov claimed responsibility for a bombing at Russia's Domodedovo airport, which killed 37 travelers, injuring 180 others.
So...this is the backdrop, at least in terms of violence and terrorist attacks in Russia related to Chechen separatists. Again, according to the Council on Foreign relations, experts contend that their are numerous links between the Muslim Chechen separatists and the al Qaeda network.
With less than six weeks to go before the Winter Olympics begin, what will Russia, or more to the point, what will Vladimir Putin do to secure the Games and all who attend them? He has, in no small degree, staked his personal and political reputation on the success of these Games...and invested $50 billion dollars in them. For 2 1/2 weeks, Russia will be on the global stage, and these Games will be televised around the world. Quite literally, the whole world will be watching. While some measures are no doubt secret, this has what, at least, has been reported in the press:
Anyone wanting to attend the games will have to buy a ticket online from the organizers and obtain a ''spectator pass'' for access. Doing so will require providing passport details that allow authorities to screen all visitors.
The security zone created around Sochi stretches approximately 100 kilometers (60 miles) along the Black Sea coast and up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) inland. Russian forces including special troops will patrol the forested mountains flanking the resort and use drones to keep a constant watch over Olympic facilities.
Speedboats will patrol the coast and sophisticated sonar will be used to detect submarines. Cars from outside the Olympic zone will be banned beginning a month before the Winter Games, and Sochi residents are already facing widespread identity checks.
Russian police/military personnel dedicated to securing the Games will number between 30 to as many as 70 thousand, compared to the 18,000 deployed in London in 2012. The security level at the London Games, by the way, was unprecedented at that time.
Six Pantsir-S short-range air defense systems designed to take on various targets flying at low level, including cruise missiles and aircraft, have been deployed in the region to protect the Russian airspace along its southern borders.
In order to protect the Games from potential terrorists already living in the region, police in Sochi have conducted house-to-house document checks to screen residents and reportedly deported thousands of migrant workers who were recruited to build Olympic facilities.
The last measure listed above is already drawing criticism from Human Rights groups. (None of whose members, one might presume, will be attending the Games)
And so my thoughts turn to this country. We have been relatively fortunate with regards to terror incidents on our own soil. 9/11 was certainly both dramatic and traumatic. But since then, we've had...what? There have been a few incidents mostly targeting Jewish synagogues or military recruiting facilities at the hands of disgruntled Muslim Americans who disagreed with our Middle East policy. Then there was the Boston Marathon, which injured some 180, but killed only 3. Most of the violence we experience is at the hands of lone wolf perpetrators. It is not movement based or directed by a known group of militants. The majority of it is simply the result of guns in the hands of mental cases who snap.
What if we in this country had a 15 year history of repeated suicide bombings, hostage taking and terror incidents that were conducted by a known adversary every year or two? One that made no secret of its intentions or tactics? One that even released public communiques stating its intention to use any and all means to disrupt an Olympics Game here, six months in advance.
What would the public expectation be in terms of securing everyone's safety...indeed, their lives? Would we insist that no security measures include profiling, even though 15 years of mayhem had been carried out by people fitting a similar profile? Would we chafe at the rings that one has to jump through in order to attend the Games? I chafe at having to take my shoes and belt off upon boarding a plane or entering certain public buildings. And I count myself among the diarists here who are the most vocal critics of the NSA's domestic surveillance apparatus.
So I don't know. Perhaps the net that our own NSA casts is so wide because the targets here are so diverse. I'm not searching for excuses, mind you. If the terrorist threats here were much more easy to discern and identify, I suspect there would be just as much criticism of the security measures taken...on other grounds.
So I ask you... If the shoe were on the other foot, and what has and continues to take place in Russia were happening here, what would YOU do in response? What would our government do? What would various demographic groups or advocacy groups such as the ACLU abide? What would the public discourse sound like? What measures to secure an event such as an Olympic Games would be deemed prudent or excessive?
I suspect Putin will do his utmost to insure these Games go off without a hitch and that they aren't marred by violence or tragedy. And I wish him success in that endeavor. I also suspect that he will be criticized one way or the other. It goes with the territory.
Nobody likes a cop until you are being mugged and desperately wish that one was at hand.