Although the traditional media attention in this country right now regarding Iran is centered solely on the Islamic nation's possible nuclear weapons production capabilities; there's another rather important issue completely missing from the current media narrative. And it's an issue that could drastically effect many of the aspects of current U.S. foreign policy in Asia.
The proposed Iran to India Natural Gas Pipeline deal soon could:
• empower Iran despite the current, U.S. led sanctions squeezing their economy
• threaten any recent security gains in Afghanistan
• heighten the already strained U.S. relations with Pakistan -- a country considered an essential ally in the ongoing war on terror -- over the CIA's highly-controversial drone program
• put a damper on future U.S.-India business and security interests if India decides to become a full-fledged partner in the pipeline project
• have a narrowing effect on U.S. efforts to broaden worldwide market possibilities for distribution and sale of our own ever-growing natural gas reserves
All told, this one international pipeline could end up posing new significant problems to overall future U.S. military access, foreign policy issues, (including nuclear proliferation) and American business expansion opportunities all across the Asian continent.
I think I feel a migraine coming on.
From the link above:
Since the discovery of natural gas reserves in Iran's South Pars fields in 1988, the Iranian government began increasing efforts to promote higher gas exports abroad. The prospects for profit are especially high in South Asian countries like India and Pakistan, where natural gas reserves are low and energy demand exceeds energy supply. In 1995, Pakistan and Iran signed a preliminary agreement for construction of a natural gas pipeline linking the Iranian South Pars natural gas field in the Persian Gulf with Karachi, Pakistan's main industrial port located at the Arabian Sea. Iran later proposed an extension of the pipeline from Pakistan into India. Not only would Pakistan benefit from Iranian natural gas exports, but Pakistani territory would be used as a transit route to export natural gas to India. Initially, the Indian government was reluctant to enter into any agreement with Pakistan due to the historically tense relationship between the two neighbors.
India's past resistance to entering the multinational deal as a full partner has been compounded by their cooperation with the U.S. in both business and security matters. So, instead of entering the deal, India proposed an alternative to the overland project, suggesting the construction of a deep sea pipeline that would go far in eliminating security and terrorist threats to the transportation of resources. This proposal remains a part of deal negotiations between the three countries, although other aspects, i.e., modes of transport and regional geopolitics in general continue to dominate the talks.
So far, deal negotiations have indicated a huge shift in intra-regional politics, offering a chance for both Pakistan and India to lower tensions, reassess their conflict over Kashmir, and could soon draw into the mix other regional neighbors like Russia and China, But as it stands now, the three original parties remain concentrated on the potential economic boom the collaboration could produce for everyone involved. Good economies in all three countries could lead to better relationships in general, and offer India and Pakistan a new avenue to mediation and eventual resolution of not only disagreements over Afghanistan, but also the conflict over Kashmir.
But, therein lies the problem for the U.S., whose influence (hegemonic and otherwise) could soon become marginalized in a region we desperately wanted to expand our presence. As far as Iran goes, as the potential for Iranian economic development afforded by this pipeline increases, the level of U.S. influence in the region wanes. And it's got Washington worried.
From the Asian Times:
NEW YORK - Although the United Nations has never imposed sanctions on Iran's energy sector, the US government has opposed a decision by Pakistan to proceed with a much-delayed pipeline from Iran on the grounds that this would put Islamabad in "violation of United Nations sanctions over its nuclear program". It seems the US has once again mistaken its own laws for that of the international community.
I suppose that's how we [continue to] roll in America. When other countries that we have significant interests in (and influence over) decide they want to start cooperating with other countries not named the United States of America in order to enrich their own economies, Washington throws a tantrum and starts threatening retribution. But it looks like those countries are so far ignoring those threats.
Here's more from the article:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Zardari, on Monday inaugurated the construction of the 781-kilometer Pakistani side of the 1,600-kilometer pipeline. Dubbed the "peace pipeline", the project was first mooted in 1994 as a tripartite Iran-Pakistan-India project. (In 2009, despite its pressing energy needs, India opted out of the deal under US pressure.)
As is to be expected, the mainstream Western media has taken a negative view of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. It has referred to the project as a "pipe dream", citing the unlikelihood that Pakistan would be able to come up with the US$1.5 billion financing to complete a link that, once completed, would pump 750 million cubic feet of natural gas into the energy-starved Pakistani economy each day.
But according to Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani, the U.S.'s skepticism is unjustified. Despite setbacks, the Pakistani economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate than they'd like. The pipeline is...
"in Pakistan's national interests."
Apparently, despite Washington's objections, Iran and Pakistan have signed an accord for a 400,000 barrel capacity oil refinery in Gwadar, in Pakistan's southwestern Baluchistan province. The accord won the praise of various foreign experts like Dan Millison from the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) Millison recently defended an assessment done by the ADB grounded in a study of economic effects of the pipeline on the rising energy demands on the subcontinent in general.
Still, questions remain about the future of India's full participation in the intended three-party deal once the section of the pipeline between Iran and Pakistan is completed. At least part of India's reluctance is no doubt due to pressure from Washington. And so far it's been working to some extent. Back in 2005, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh commented that:
"We are terribly short of energy supply, and we desperately need new sources of energy."
It's no great mystery as to why the U.S. is exerting such pressure on Singh. The three-party deal would essentially represent the first significant act of defiance of unilateral sanctions on Tehran. In addition, the success of the partnership could serve as an example that other Asian countries could follow, which would substantially weaken overall U.S. influence on the continent.
A statement from State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland:
''We have serious concerns, if this project actually goes forward, that the Iran Sanctions Act would be triggered. We've been straight up with the Pakistanis about these concerns. We've heard this pipeline announced about 10 or 15 times before in the past. So we have to see what actually happens."
Then again, this is the first time an accord has in fact been signed and production started on the first leg of the project.
I don't think Pakistan is listening. Now we have to see if India puts their hands over their ears as well.
Two things are certain though:
• Washington's unilateral sanctions on Iran have effectively been exposed as punitive measures -- for crimes we don't even know for sure they've committed yet -- without a follow-up plan, which is basically allowing Iran to become creative in coming up with ways to get around or mitigate those sanctions
• any U.S. led invasion of Iran or even targeted air strikes carried out by Israel will surely sour our relations with the entire [ascendant] continent of Asia
I just can't see any upside to that happening. Obama really needs to stop listening to the neocons, both in Israel... and here at home.