California is the most populous state in the nation, yet it has the 15th smallest state legislature and some of the largest districts in the nation. The 40 state senate districts comprise around 931,349 people each, the second most populous single-seat electoral districts in the world after the parliament of India. The 80 state assemblymembers represent around 465,674 people each, the most of any American lower-house state legislator. With such large constituencies in such a diverse state, the distance between the politician and communities is necessarily more distant even in the most compact and monolithic districts.
With the advent of equal-population districts after Reynolds v. Sims and equal-length term limits after 2012's Proposition 28, there is little reason to maintain a bicameral legislature. The "braking mechanism" reason doesn't work; bills can be and have been rammed through both chambers in less than a day, committees and all (for an example, see 2011's SB 202, which forces all state ballot measures onto the November ballot). Scrutiny is usually limited to the various special interests jockeying between themselves for favorable legislation, and major legislation is usually drawn up by Democratic party leadership and the governor before ramming through the legislature in the last days of session. Vacancies due to politicians jumping between chambers also create monetary drains and lost representation due to vacancies and special elections.
Instead of spending millions of dollars on shuffling paperwork and staffers between opposite ends of the state capitol, combining the two chambers into a single 120-member unicameral legislature. The districts are smaller (though still quite big compared to other states), and constituencies that are drowned out by their surroundings can be better represented. More diverse voices can come to a larger table and the legislators can concentrate more on their constituencies and represent them better. But enough advocacy. You came here for the map, so let's go below the fold and get straight to it.
I used the following criteria to draw the map:
- Adhering to the federal Voting Rights Act, specifically section 2. As section 4 got struck down in Shelby County v. Holder, section 5 does not apply and retrogression is not a problem.
- African American districts average around 20-25% black, which is sufficient to elect a black legislator despite the high Latino population. Certain districts, especially in southeastern Los Angeles County, form tendrils due to the need to the unpack densely Latino areas.
- Districts deviate no more than two percent from each other. In other words, they do not deviate more than one percent above or below the ideal population, which in this case is 310,450 people. This is a criterion set forth in Legislature v. Reinecke, a 1973 California Supreme Court case that did the 1970s round of redistricting in California and has been adhered to ever since.
- County and municipal lines are adhered to as much as possible. Districts consist of whole counties to the extent practicable, and counties are aggregated together to form whole numbers of districts to the best possible extent. For example, the population of Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Inyo counties put together consist of five whole districts and are drawn as such. San Diego County consists of ten whole districts.
- The sixth standard parallel south of Mount Diablo forms the border between Monterey, Kings, Tulare, and Inyo to the north and San Luis Obispo, Kern, and San Bernardino to the south. This line was a traditional divider between northern and southern California and forms a hard boundary between the districts. The population numbers actually come out quite clean: 47 districts to the north, 73 districts to the south.
- Communities of interest are respected to the greatest extent possible. Of course, some may have been broken up simply due to population concerns.
- The districts are drawn as fair as I deemed possible. Of course, my strong pro-Democratic biases may impact some of the lines.
- Districts are numbered based on region rather than the strange "northernmost point" definition used now. The scheme used here makes more sense.
There are certain aspects of the map that were hard to change: Orange County needed nine whole districts (and then some), but these districts are all underpopulated. This forced all the Inland Empire districts to be systematically overpopulated to compensate. I could not find a way around this without violating the integrity of municipal lines, especially in the San Gabriel Valley.
The percentages below are all two-party percentages given in DRA. For calculating PVI, I used 53.7% Obama 2008. I didn't provide a 2010 PVI because the figure (based on 56.8% Brown) will look misleading. Yes, Meg Whitman did that badly.
And without further ado,
The map
The far north, Sacramento, and the Delta
LD-01 (blue) – North Coast: Crescent City, Eureka, Ukiah
Deviation: −2,046
Population: 73.9% white, 1.0% black, 15.0% Latino, 2.1% Asian, 4.3% Native, 3.7% other
VAP: 78.0% white, 1.1% black, 12.3% Latino, 1.9% Asian, 3.8% Native, 2.9% other
2008 election: 67.8% Obama, 32.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 64.2% Brown, 35.8% Whitman
Incumbent: Wesley Chesbro (D–Arcata)
Rating:
Safe Democratic
This district looks a lot like AD-01 and will vote the same way. A progressive rural Democrat will be elected here.
LD-02 (green) – Inland north: Mount Shasta, Redding, Susanville
Deviation: +380
Population: 80.2% white, 1.7% black, 10.1% Latino, 2.0% Asian, 2.5% Native, 3.5% other
VAP: 82.7% white, 1.8% black, 8.5% Latino, 1.9% Asian, 2.4% Native, 2.7% other
2008 election: 38.0% Obama, 62.0% McCain
2008 PVI: R+16
2010 election: 36.9% Brown, 63.1% Whitman
Incumbent: Brian Dahle (R–Bieber)
Rating: Safe Republican
The closest thing California has to the rugged wild west of old. Predominantly rural, extremely conservative, and very bright red.
LD-03 (purple) – Northern Sacramento Valley: Red Bluff, Chico, Williams
Deviation: −1,565
Population: 69.8% white, 1.2% black, 20.9% Latino, 3.5% Asian, 1.6% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 74.6% white, 1.2% black, 17.1% Latino, 3.1% Asian, 1.5% Native, 2.4% other
2008 election: 48.3% Obama, 51.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+5
2010 election: 44.0% Brown, 56.0% Whitman
Incumbent: Jim Nielsen (R–Gerber)
Rating: Safe Republican
One can conceivably put this under likely Republican instead, but Democratic performance is dependent on the college town of Chico. Butte County voted narrowly for Obama in 2008 but narrowly for Romney in 2012, so the fruit isn't quite ripe yet.
LD-04 (red) – Southern Sacramento Valley: Yuba City, Lincoln, Rocklin
Deviation: +276
Population: 63.8% white, 1.9% black, 20.5% Latino, 9.2% Asian, 1.2% Native, 3.7% other
VAP: 68.0% white, 1.9% black, 17.2% Latino, 9.2% Asian, 1.0% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 41.8% Obama, 58.2% McCain
2008 PVI: R+12
2010 election: 39.3% Brown, 60.7% Whitman
Incumbents: Ted Gaines (R–Rocklin), Beth Gaines (R–Rocklin), Dan Logue (R–Marysville)
Rating: Safe Republican
An aspect of a unicameral legislature: no more husband and wife serving in the legislature at the same time.
LD-05 (gold) – Tahoe Country: Auburn, South Lake Tahoe, Mammoth Lakes
Deviation: −2,481
Population: 82.5% white, 0.4% black, 12.0% Latino, 1.6% Asian, 1.0% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 85.2% white, 0.2% black, 9.7% Latino, 1.7% Asian, 1.0% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 49.9% Obama, 50.1% McCain
2008 PVI: R+4
2010 election: 45.5% Brown, 54.5% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
This area is usually smothered by its conservative surroundings, but since I'm sort of treating ski resorts as a community of interest, this potential Democratic target emerges from deep in the mountains. Again, this district trended red in 2012, so it might still be a bit out of reach.
LD-06 (teal) – Sacramento exurbs: Roseville, Folsom, El Dorado Hills
Deviation: +2,242
Population: 73.8% white, 2.5% black, 11.6% Latino, 8.1% Asian, 0.5% Native, 3.5% other
VAP: 76.1% white, 2.8% black, 10.1% Latino, 8.0% Asian, 0.5% Native, 2.5% other
2008 election: 43.6% Obama, 56.4% McCain
2008 PVI: R+4
2010 election: 39.6% Brown, 60.4% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
Unfortunately, pro-Prop 8 lawyer Andy Pugno might win here (he's from Folsom). In any case, this district will send a Republican to the state capitol.
LD-07 (dark gray) – North Bay: San Rafael, Novato, Rohnert Park
Deviation: +2,071
Population: 72.3% white, 2.4% black, 16.3% Latino, 5.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.4% other
VAP: 74.9% white, 2.5% black, 14.3% Latino, 5.6% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.4% other
2008 election: 78.7% Obama, 21.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+25
2010 election: 71.6% Brown, 28.4% Whitman
Incumbent: Marc Levine (D–Santa Rosa)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Marin County now has even more clout over its legislative district, so Rohnert Park and Cotati have to hope they don't get left as an afterthought. Either way, this district will elect a progressive Democrat.
LD-08 (blue) – Sonoma Valley: Santa Rosa, Windsor, Sonoma
Deviation: −925
Population: 62.7% white, 1.6% black, 28.0% Latino, 4.2% Asian, 0.8% Native, 2.8% other
VAP: 68.3% white, 1.5% black, 23.0% Latino, 4.3% Asian, 0.8% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 75.1% Obama, 24.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+21
2010 election: 67.5% Brown, 32.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Noreen Evans (D–Santa Rosa)
Rating: Safe Democratic
A bit of Wine Country, anchored by Santa Rosa. It's better than being split between two far-flung districts.
LD-09 (cyan) – Wine Country: Napa, Petaluma, Clearlake
Deviation: −1,536
Population: 63.0% white, 2.4% black, 24.6% Latino, 6.3% Asian, 0.8% Native, 3.0% other
VAP: 67.6% white, 2.4% black, 20.7% Latino, 6.3% Asian, 0.8% Native, 2.2% other
2008 election: 65.9% Obama, 34.1% McCain
2008 PVI: D+12
2010 election: 60.0% Brown, 40.0% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Mostly rural, dotted by wineries and filled with Democrats.
LD-10 (deep pink) – YOLO: West Sacramento, Davis, Vacaville
Deviation: +1,830
Population: 51.3% white, 4.6% black, 29.0% Latino, 10.5% Asian, 0.6% Native, 4.1% other
VAP: 54.7% white, 4.9% black, 25.0% Latino, 11.6% Asian, 0.6% Native, 3.2% other
2008 election: 63.0% Obama, 37.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+9
2010 election: 61.4% Brown, 38.6% Whitman
Incumbents: Lois Wolk (D–Davis), Mariko Yamada (D–Davis)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The district's Democratic center of gravity is in the college town of Davis, while Vacaville is still relatively red compared to the rest of the Bay Area.
LD-11 (chatreuse) – Solano: Fairfield, Vallejo, Martinez
Deviation: −1,448
Population: 51.3% white, 4.6% black, 29.0% Latino, 10.5% Asian, 0.6% Native, 4.1% other
VAP: 54.7% white, 4.9% black, 25.0% Latino, 11.6% Asian, 0.6% Native, 3.2% other
2008 election: 63.0% Obama, 37.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+9
2010 election: 61.4% Brown, 38.6% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Solano finally gets its own resident legislator, something that hasn't happened since 1996 when assemblyman Tom Hannigan was termed out. Of course, it has to nominate a Democrat first.
LD-12 (cornflower blue) – Northern Sacramento County: Sacramento, North Highlands, Citrus Heights
Deviation: −1,312
Population: 54.8% white, 8.4% black, 20.5% Latino, 10.9% Asian, 0.6% Native, 4.8% other
VAP: 59.0% white, 8.1% black, 17.4% Latino, 11.3% Asian, 0.6% Native, 3.5% other
2008 election: 55.9% Obama, 44.1% McCain
2008 PVI: D+2
2010 election: 56.5% Brown, 43.5% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Paging Richard Pan, paging Richard Pan. You can now have your district back. Yes, the district you have been living in this entire time.
LD-13 (dark salmon) – Eastern Sacramento suburbs: Arden Arcade, Carmichael, Rancho Cordova
Deviation: +39
Population: 63.2% white, 7.6% black, 16.4% Latino, 7.6% Asian, 0.6% Native, 4.5% other
VAP: 67.5% white, 7.1% black, 13.7% Latino, 7.9% Asian, 0.6% Native, 3.3% other
2008 election: 55.6% Obama, 44.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+2
2010 election: 54.8% Brown, 45.2% Whitman
Incumbent: Ken Cooley (D–Rancho Cordova)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This is the definition of 1990s suburbia and the recent shift of said suburbia into the Democratic column.
LD-14 (olive) – Central Sacramento
Deviation: −1,676
Population: 37.7% white, 12.7% black, 27.3% Latino, 17.2% Asian, 0.6% Native, 4.5% other
VAP: 42.8% white, 12.2% black, 23.5% Latino, 17.2% Asian, 0.7% Native, 3.5% other
2008 election: 74.6% Obama, 25.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+21
2010 election: 75.0% Brown, 25.0% Whitman
Incumbents: Darrell Steinberg (D–Sacramento), Roger Dickinson (D–Sacramento), Richard Pan (D–Sacramento)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Home of the state capitol and all things state politics.
LD-15 (dark orange) – Southern Sacramento suburbs: Sacramento, Florin, Elk Grove
Deviation: −1,455
Population: 28.5% white, 14.2% black, 24.6% Latino, 26.9% Asian, 0.4% Native, 5.4% other
VAP: 32.3% white, 13.7% black, 21.7% Latino, 27.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 4.1% other
2008 election: 64.2% Obama, 35.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+11
2010 election: 65.3% Brown, 34.7% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
More suburbia. More Democrats. One more Democratic legislator.
LD-16 (lime) – Northern Delta: Galt, Lodi, Stockton
Deviation: −2,999
Population: 39.6% white, 7.0% black, 31.8% Latino, 17.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 3.4% other
VAP: 45.3% white, 6.8% black, 27.0% Latino, 17.8% Asian, 0.6% Native, 2.6% other
2008 election: 51.3% Obama, 48.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+2
2010 election: 49.7% Brown, 50.3% Whitman
Incumbent: Cathleen Galgiani (D–Stockton)
Rating: Lean Democratic
This is a swing district that has shifted leftward dramatically over the past few years. With the continued Democratic shift in 2012, this district should stay blue, albeit with some effort.
LD-17 (dark slate blue) – Southern Delta: Stockton, Tracy, Discovery Bay
Deviation: −154
Population: 29.7% white, 8.2% black, 45.0% Latino, 13.0% Asian, 0.5% Native, 3.6% other
VAP: 34.0% white, 8.2% black, 40.8% Latino, 13.7% Asian, 0.5% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 64.0% Obama, 36.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+10
2010 election: 59.4% Brown, 40.6% Whitman
Incumbent: Susan Eggman (D–Stockton)
Rating: Safe Democratic
I just realized something. San Joaquin County, which voted 65.5%-34.5% for Prop 8 in 2008, is represented in the state legislature by two lesbians right now.
The Bay Area
LD-18 (yellow) – East Bay: Richmond, Pleasant Hill, Concord
Deviation: +1,127
Population: 32.8% white, 15.3% black, 29.9% Latino, 17.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 4.0% other
VAP: 36.7% white, 15.3% black, 25.8% Latino, 18.8% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.1% other
2008 election: 80.8% Obama, 19.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+27
2010 election: 77.9% Brown, 32.1% Whitman
Incumbent:
none
Rating:
Safe Democratic
The district is dominated by Richmond, and its partisan bent drowns out all competition. It splits Concord into three districts (bad, I know), but the alternative was to go south to Lamorinda, which makes little sense in terms of communities of interest.
LD-19 (yellow green) – Inland East Bay: Lamorinda, Walnut Creek, Danville
Deviation: +1,987
Population: 64.6% white, 1.9% black, 13.4% Latino, 15.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.9% other
VAP: 67.9% white, 1.9% black, 11.8% Latino, 15.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.5% other
2008 election: 63.7% Obama, 36.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+10
2010 election: 54.5% Brown, 45.5% Whitman
Incumbents: Mark DeSaulnier (D–Concord), Joan Buchanan (D–Alamo)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This area was solidly Republican into the 1990s. Alas, no more.
LD-20 (pink) – Western Delta: Concord, Pittsburg, Antioch
Deviation: +266
Population: 40.3% white, 11.6% black, 32.7% Latino, 10.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 4.2% other
VAP: 44.8% white, 11.1% black, 28.9% Latino, 11.6% Asian, 0.4% Native, 3.1% other
2008 election: 67.2% Obama, 32.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 63.3% Brown, 36.7% Whitman
Incumbents: Susan Bonilla (D–Concord), Jim Frazier (D–Oakley)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Much of the district consists of suburban communities that suffered immensely in the housing bust.
LD-21 (maroon) – San Francisco: Richmond, Pacific Heights, Twin Peaks
Deviation: −1,313
Population: 56.9% white, 3.5% black, 8.7% Latino, 26.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 4.0% other
VAP: 58.4% white, 3.6% black, 8.3% Latino, 26.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.0% other
2008 election: 86.2% Obama, 13.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+33
2010 election: 80.8% Brown, 19.2% Whitman
Incumbent: Mark Leno (D–San Francisco)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The district comprises the wealthier and whiter parts of the city, along with some other neighborhoods. Home of the Golden Gate Bridge, Twin Peaks, and the Castro.
LD-22 (sienna) – San Francisco: Nob Hill, Mission, Bayview-Hunters Point
Deviation: −1,938
Population: 38.8% white, 9.5% black, 19.8% Latino, 28.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.5% other
VAP: 41.6% white, 8.9% black, 18.0% Latino, 28.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.0% other
2008 election: 89.2% Obama, 10.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+36
2010 election: 85.7% Brown, 14.3% Whitman
Incumbent: Tom Ammiano (D–San Francisco)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This district takes in the eastern third of the city, a combination of longstanding communities such as Chinatown and Bayview-Hunters Point along with the newly gentrified Mission Bay and the Mission.
LD-23 (aquamarine) – Daly City, San Francisco: Sunset, Visitacion Valley
Deviation: +2,276
Population: 20.3% white, 3.3% black, 20.4% Latino, 52.8% Asian, 0.1% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 22.2% white, 3.3% black, 18.9% Latino, 53.1% Asian, 0.1% Native, 2.4% other
2008 election: 78.2% Obama, 21.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+25
2010 election: 76.0% Brown, 24.0% Whitman
Incumbent: Phil Ting (D–San Francisco)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Our first Asian-majority district is found here, mostly likely electing a Chinese American Democrat of some sort to Sacramento.
LD-24 (indigo) – East Bay: Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont
Deviation: −2,489
Population: 48.6% white, 16.9% black, 10.2% Latino, 18.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 5.2% other
VAP: 50.2% white, 16.4% black, 9.3% Latino, 19.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 4.0% other
2008 election: 93.0% Obama, 7.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+39
2010 election: 91.2% Brown, 8.8% Whitman
Incumbents: Loni Hancock (D–Berkeley), Nancy Skinner (D–Berkeley)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The bluest district in Northern California. But not the bluest in the state. That comes later.
LD-25 (pale violet red) – East Bay: Oakland, Alameda
Deviation: −2,000
Population: 21.9% white, 23.5% black, 29.5% Latino, 20.9% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.8% other
VAP: 24.8% white, 24.0% black, 25.9% Latino, 22.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.9% other
2008 election: 88.6% Obama, 11.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+35
2010 election: 86.8% Brown, 13.2% Whitman
Incumbent: Rob Bonta (D–Alameda)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The most diverse district in California will remain Democratic come hell or high water...okay, not really.
LD-26 (gray) – San Francisco Peninsula: San Bruno, Millbrae, San Mateo
Deviation: +1,394
Population: 45.1% white, 1.9% black, 23.9% Latino, 25.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 4.0% other
VAP: 47.9% white, 2.0% black, 21.5% Latino, 25.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 73.6% Obama, 26.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+20
2010 election: 67.8% Brown, 32.2% Whitman
Incumbents: Jerry Hill (D–San Mateo), Kevin Mullin (D–South San Francisco)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Suburbia and a major airport. Nothing really interesting.
LD-27 (spring green) – San Francisco Peninsula: Foster City, Menlo Park, Los Altos
Deviation: −785
Population: 51.0% white, 3.2% black, 25.8% Latino, 16.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.7% other
VAP: 54.3% white, 3.5% black, 22.8% Latino, 16.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.5% other
2008 election: 73.8% Obama, 26.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+20
2010 election: 65.5% Brown, 34.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Rich Gordon (D–Menlo Park)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Mostly bedroom communities, but Silicon Valley is slowly seeping into the district.
LD-28 (plum) – East Bay: San Leandro, Hayward
Deviation: +2,385
Population: 22.1% white, 11.4% black, 38.1% Latino, 24.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.8% other
VAP: 26.0% white, 11.2% black, 33.7% Latino, 25.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 3.1% other
2008 election: 78.4% Obama, 21.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+25
2010 election: 76.2% Brown, 23.8% Whitman
Incumbents: Ellen Corbett (D–Hayward), Bill Quirk (D–Hayward)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Your standard Bay Area legislative district.
LD-29 (dark sea green) – East Bay: Union City, Fremont, Newark
Deviation: +1,873
Population: 24.5% white, 3.9% black, 17.7% Latino, 49.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 4.7% other
VAP: 27.6% white, 3.7% black, 16.1% Latino, 48.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.6% other
2008 election: 73.3% Obama, 26.7% McCain
2008 PVI: D+20
2010 election: 66.3% Brown, 33.7% Whitman
Incumbent: Bob Wieckowski (D–Fremont)
Rating: Safe Democratic
In 2010, it was almost Asian-majority. Given the trends here, it should have crossed that threshold by now.
LD-30 (light coral) – Inland East Bay: Castro Valley, San Ramon, Livermore
Deviation: +2,230
Population: 57.0% white, 4.1% black, 15.1% Latino, 19.5% Asian, 0.3% Native, 4.1% other
VAP: 60.2% white, 4.2% black, 13.5% Latino, 19.0% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.7% other
2008 election: 62.7% Obama, 37.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+9
2010 election: 55.4% Brown, 44.6% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
The most Republican district in the Bay Area, but is still solidly blue.
LD-31 (khaki) – Silicon Valley: Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale
Deviation: −475
Population: 45.5% white, 1.8% black, 15.8% Latino, 33.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.8% other
VAP: 48.4% white, 1.8% black, 14.1% Latino, 33.2% Asian, 0.1% Native, 2.3% other
2008 election: 75.9% Obama, 24.1% McCain
2008 PVI: D+22
2010 election: 68.5% Brown, 31.5% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Home to Google, Yahoo, among others.
LD-32 (orange red) – Santa Clara, Cupertino, San Jose: Blackford
Deviation: +1,631
Population: 35.4% white, 2.5% black, 17.2% Latino, 41.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.6% other
VAP: 39.3% white, 2.5% black, 15.4% Latino, 40.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.6% other
2008 election: 72.4% Obama, 27.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+19
2010 election: 64.6% Brown, 35.4% Whitman
Incumbent: Paul Fong (D–Cupertino)
Rating: Safe Democratic
An L-shaped district that fell into place after the surrounding districts were drawn.
LD-33 (royal blue) – Milpitas, San Jose: Berryessa, Evergreen, East Foothills
Deviation: −1,178
Population: 15.9% white, 2.6% black, 22.2% Latino, 56.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.7% other
VAP: 18.3% white, 2.7% black, 20.0% Latino, 56.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 67.4% Obama, 32.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 62.5% Brown, 37.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Nora Campos (D–San Jose)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The Asian population here is too large not to have its own district.
LD-34 (lime green) – San Jose: Downtown, Alum Rock, Seven Trees
Deviation: +2,151
Population: 14.6% white, 3.0% black, 57.0% Latino, 23.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.0% other
VAP: 17.8% white, 3.3% black, 51.4% Latino, 25.3% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 77.2% Obama, 22.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+24
2010 election: 74.8% Brown, 25.2% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Our first Latino-majority district, encompassing the heart of San Jose and Silicon Valley.
LD-35 (dark orchid) – Campbell, San Jose: Willow Glen, Cambrian Park, Santa Teresa
Deviation: +1,012
Population: 50.9% white, 2.9% black, 22.7% Latino, 19.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 4.0% other
VAP: 54.7% white, 2.9% black, 19.8% Latino, 19.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 67.8% Obama, 32.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 60.3% Brown, 39.7% Whitman
Incumbent: Jim Beall (D–San Jose)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Though very much a part of Silicon Valley, the district is mostly suburban.
LD-36 (orange) – Santa Cruz Mountains: Santa Cruz, Saratoga, Morgan Hill
Deviation: +495
Population: 68.6% white, 1.0% black, 16.2% Latino, 10.3% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.6% other
VAP: 71.8% white, 1.0% black, 14.1% Latino, 10.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.6% other
2008 election: 73.4% Obama, 26.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+20
2010 election: 65.1% Brown, 34.9% Whitman
Incumbent: Mark Stone (D–Scotts Valley)
Rating: Safe Democratic
With that, we leave the San Francisco Bay Area and enter the Monterey Bay Area. Still very blue, still very cold, but a different culture nonetheless.
Central California
LD-37 (
Dodger blue) – Monterey Bay: Gilroy, Watsonville, Monterey
Deviation: −2,072
Population: 41.6% white, 2.2% black, 46.3% Latino, 6.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.9% other
VAP: 47.1% white, 2.4% black, 40.4% Latino, 7.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.3% other
2008 election: 70.3% Obama, 29.7% McCain
2008 PVI: D+17
2010 election: 62.9% Brown, 37.1% Whitman
Incumbents: Bill Monning (D–Carmel), Luis Alejo (D–Watsonville)
Rating:
Safe Democratic
This is a strange combination of communities, but was required to make the next district sufficiently Latino.
LD-38 (medium aquamarine) – Salinas Valley: Hollister, Salinas, Soledad
Deviation: +988
Population: 24.8% white, 1.9% black, 67.0% Latino, 4.3% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.6% other
VAP: 29.5% white, 2.4% black, 61.5% Latino, 4.9% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.4% other
2008 election: 67.3% Obama, 32.7% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 61.7% Brown, 38.3% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Our second Latino-majority district currently has no incumbent, but would probably be someone from Salinas.
LD-39 (moccasin) – Eastern Delta: Lathrop, Manteca, Turlock
Deviation: −1,082
Population: 53.3% white, 2.3% black, 35.3% Latino, 5.7% Asian, 0.6% Native, 2.8% other
VAP: 58.6% white, 2.4% black, 30.2% Latino, 5.9% Asian, 0.6% Native, 2.4% other
2008 election: 44.2% Obama, 55.8% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 40.6% Brown, 59.4% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
After a long string of Democratic districts, here's a red bone.
LD-40 (firebrick) – Gold Country: San Andreas, Sonora, Madera
Deviation: −2,300
Population: 60.5% white, 2.4% black, 31.8% Latino, 1.5% Asian, 1.3% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 65.5% white, 2.8% black, 26.6% Latino, 1.5% Asian, 1.4% Native, 2.2% other
2008 election: 43.5% Obama, 56.5% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 41.5% Brown, 58.5% Whitman
Incumbents: Tom Berryhill (R–Twain Harte), Frank Bigelow (R–O'Neals)
Rating: Safe Republican
This district consists neatly of five whole counties in the central Sierra Nevada.
LD-41 (light steel blue) – Modesto, Ceres
Deviation: −1,534
Population: 45.7% white, 3.1% black, 41.3% Latino, 6.2% Asian, 0.6% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 51.4% white, 3.1% black, 35.8% Latino, 6.5% Asian, 0.7% Native, 2.6% other
2008 election: 53.4% Obama, 46.6% McCain
2008 PVI: EVEN
2010 election: 49.5% Brown, 50.5% Whitman
Incumbents: Anthony Cannella (R–Ceres), Kristin Olsen (R–Modesto)
Rating: Tossup
Our first tossup has been ground zero for California partisan scuffling for the past several cycles. Given the low Latino VAP (and an even lower Latino CVAP), this district won't be a firm hold for any party for quite a while.
LD-42 (lawn green) – Central Valley: Patterson, Livingston, Merced
Deviation: −1,014
Population: 31.1% white, 3.4% black, 56.4% Latino, 6.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.0% other
VAP: 36.3% white, 3.7% black, 50.9% Latino, 6.9% Asian, 0.5% Native, 1.7% other
2008 election: 56.4% Obama, 43.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+3
2010 election: 49.7% Brown, 50.3% Whitman
Incumbent: Adam Gray (D–Merced)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This district zoomed leftward in 2012, giving the Democrats a firmer, though by no means secure, hold on this ancestrally valleycrat seat.
LD-43 (magenta) – Western Fresno County: Coalinga, Fresno, Reedley
Deviation: −2,389
Population: 18.5% white, 3.1% black, 70.3% Latino, 6.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.2% other
VAP: 22.4% white, 3.5% black, 65.8% Latino, 6.7% Asian, 0.5% Native, 1.1% other
2008 election: 55.7% Obama, 44.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+2
2010 election: 51.3% Brown, 48.7% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Likely Democratic
The district is mainly rural and agricultural, with several settlements along with the outskirts of Fresno. The area is heavily Latino, though many are undocumented. There is also a significant Hmong community, so Blong Xiong could probably win here.
LD-44 (medium violet red) – Central Fresno
Deviation: −1,962
Population: 21.8% white, 8.0% black, 56.0% Latino, 11.5% Asian, 0.7% Native, 2.0% other
VAP: 27.0% white, 7.9% black, 51.4% Latino, 11.2% Asian, 0.8% Native, 1.7% other
2008 election: 66.4% Obama, 33.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+13
2010 election: 61.9% Brown, 38.1% Whitman
Incumbent: Henry Perea (D–Fresno)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Not much to say, other than that it's as Democratic as one can expect.
LD-45 (turquoise) – Eastern Fresno County: Fresno, Clovis
Deviation: −2,853
Population: 57.1% white, 3.5% black, 25.2% Latino, 10.6% Asian, 0.8% Native, 2.9% other
VAP: 61.5% white, 3.3% black, 22.0% Latino, 10.3% Asian, 0.8% Native, 2.2% other
2008 election: 42.4% Obama, 57.6% McCain
2008 PVI: R+11
2010 election: 34.8% Brown, 65.2% Whitman
Incumbent: Jim Patterson (R–Fresno)
Rating: Safe Republican
The remainder of the city of Fresno is here, along with its eastern suburb of Clovis. The rest of the district consists of the Sierra Nevada.
LD-46 (tomato) – Central Valley: Hanford, Tulare, Porterville
Deviation: −468
Population: 31.6% white, 4.2% black, 58.1% Latino, 3.4% Asian, 0.7% Native, 2.0% other
VAP: 36.6% white, 4.9% black, 52.2% Latino, 3.7% Asian, 0.7% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 44.2% Obama, 55.8% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 44.3% Brown, 55.7% Whitman
Incumbents: Andy Vidak (R–Hanford), Connie Conway (R–Tulare)
Rating: Safe Republican
As section 5 of the VRA is now unenforceable, districts that include Kings County can now be drawn more sensibly. In case you're wondering, this district isn't full of Latino Republicans; it's just full of undocumented immigrants and prisons.
LD-47 (thistle) – Southern Sierra Nevada: Dinuba, Visalia, Bishop
Deviation: −421
Population: 37.7% white, 1.0% black, 55.0% Latino, 3.2% Asian, 1.4% Native, 1.6% other
VAP: 43.9% white, 1.0% black, 48.7% Latino, 3.5% Asian, 1.5% Native, 1.4% other
2008 election: 41.3% Obama, 58.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 38.2% Brown, 61.8% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
The district spans both sides of the Sierra Nevada and closely resembles the current AD-26.
LD-48 (sandy brown) – Southern Central Valley: Bakersfield, Delano, Shafter
Deviation: +1,844
Population: 12.5% white, 5.8% black, 76.6% Latino, 3.5% Asian, 0.5% Native, 1.1% other
VAP: 15.7% white, 6.7% black, 72.1% Latino, 4.0% Asian, 0.6% Native, 1.0% other
2008 election: 61.6% Obama, 38.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+8
2010 election: 61.8% Brown, 38.2% Whitman
Incumbent: Rudy Salas (D–Bakersfield)
Rating: Safe Democratic
No longer swingy, except maybe in special elections.
LD-49 (Indian red) – Bakersfield
Deviation: −837
Population: 47.2% white, 6.0% black, 37.8% Latino, 5.8% Asian, 0.7% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 52.4% white, 5.7% black, 32.9% Latino, 6.2% Asian, 0.7% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 37.8% Obama, 62.2% McCain
2008 PVI: R+16
2010 election: 35.8% Brown, 64.2% Whitman
Incumbents: Jean Fuller (R–Bakersfield), Shannon Grove (R–Bakersfield)
Rating: Safe Republican
Compared to the rest of the Central Valley, oil is the dominant industry here.
LD-50 (powder blue) – Mountains: Paso Robles, Oildale, Ridgecrest
Deviation: +917
Population: 65.9% white, 3.2% black, 25.1% Latino, 2.2% Asian, 0.9% Native, 2.7% other
VAP: 69.9% white, 3.1% black, 21.6% Latino, 2.3% Asian, 0.9% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 36.7% Obama, 63.3% McCain
2008 PVI: R+17
2010 election: 35.9% Brown, 64.1% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
This is the reddest district in all of California. There is no one coherent community of interest here: it's an eclectic mix of wine-growing valleys in the west, oil derricks in the middle, and solar power-generating desert in the east. The district sort of drew itself after the surrounding districts were drawn. The district does cap off the Central Valley though, and forms an intuitive cultural boundary between northern and southern California.
LD-51 (saddle brown) – Central Coast: San Luis Obispo, Arroyo Grande, Santa Maria
Deviation: −1,730
Population: 54.4% white, 1.8% black, 37.0% Latino, 4.1% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.3% other
VAP: 60.2% white, 2.0% black, 30.9% Latino, 4.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 53.6% Obama, 46.4% McCain
2008 PVI: EVEN
2010 election: 48.2% Brown, 51.8% Whitman
Incumbent: Katcho Achadjian (R–San Luis Obispo)
Rating: Tossup
Two things hold Democrats back here: they have no bench here and college turnout in San Luis Obispo is fickle. Otherwise, their presidential performance is sufficient to flip the district.
LD-52 (olive drab) – Central Coast: Lompoc, Santa Barbara, Ojai
Deviation: −1,730
Population: 56.5% white, 1.8% black, 34.0% Latino, 4.7% Asian, 0.5% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 60.8% white, 1.9% black, 29.5% Latino, 5.2% Asian, 0.5% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 66.1% Obama, 33.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+12
2010 election: 55.8% Brown, 44.2% Whitman
Incumbents: Hannah-Beth Jackson (D–Santa Barbara), Das Williams (D–Santa Barbara)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The district is highly dependent on turnout from UC Santa Barbara, leading to wild swings in Democratic performance. It should be safe for the Dems, even though they might occasionally see some close calls.
Los Angeles area
LD-53 (gainsboro) – Oxnard, Ventura
Deviation: +707
Population: 31.8% white, 2.0% black, 58.1% Latino, 5.8% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.0% other
VAP: 37.0% white, 2.2% black, 52.4% Latino, 6.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.7% other
2008 election: 65.4% Obama, 34.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+12
2010 election: 58.7% Brown, 41.3% Whitman
Incumbent:
none
Rating:
Safe Democratic
Oxnard and Ventura now get their own legislator instead of being subsumed under some other far-flung place. The last state legislator to come from the area, Republican Nao Takasugi, was termed out in 1998.
LD-54 (peach puff) – Ventura County: Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, Santa Paula
Deviation: −761
Population: 55.1% white, 1.5% black, 33.8% Latino, 6.9% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 59.4% white, 1.5% black, 29.8% Latino, 7.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 52.9% Obama, 47.1% McCain
2008 PVI: R+1
2010 election: 44.1% Brown, 55.9% Whitman
Incumbent: Jeff Gorell (R–Camarillo)
Rating: Tossup
A longtime bastion for the GOP is now at the tipping point and should turn blue sooner rather than later.
LD-55 (rosy brown) – Ventura/LA: Simi Valley, Moorpark, West Hills
Deviation: −47
Population: 61.3% white, 2.2% black, 20.2% Latino, 12.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.2% other
VAP: 64.0% white, 2.2% black, 18.0% Latino, 13.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.3% other
2008 election: 53.9% Obama, 46.1% McCain
2008 PVI: EVEN
2010 election: 44.7% Brown, 55.3% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Tossup
Another ancestral Republican area in the throes of Democratic revolt. Imagine the Reagan presidential library represented by a Democrat.
LD-56 (blue) – Santa Clarita Valley: Santa Clarita, Acton, Quartz Hill
Deviation: −2,999
Population: 54.7% white, 4.4% black, 28.1% Latino, 9.6% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.0% other
VAP: 57.9% white, 4.5% black, 25.5% Latino, 9.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 47.9% Obama, 52.1% McCain
2008 PVI: R+6
2010 election: 38.9% Brown, 61.1% Whitman
Incumbent: Scott Wilk (R–Santa Clarita)
Rating: Safe Republican
The district has Six Flags Magic Mountain, but Democrats aren't going to have much fun here for a while.
LD-57 (green) – Antelope Valley: Lancaster, Palmdale
Deviation: −1,110
Population: 29.9% white, 16.6% black, 46.1% Latino, 4.1% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.9% other
VAP: 35.0% white, 15.9% black, 41.7% Latino, 4.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.3% other
2008 election: 55.3% Obama, 44.7% McCain
2008 PVI: D+2
2010 election: 51.0% Brown, 49.0% Whitman
Incumbents: Steve Knight (R–Palmdale), Steve Fox (D–Palmdale)
Rating: Likely Democratic
This isn't your good old Antelope Valley anymore. The Democrats now have a more secure foothold in the High Desert.
LD-58 (purple) – San Fernando Valley: Sylmar, San Fernando, Granada Hills
Deviation: +1,335
Population: 21.9% white, 3.6% black, 62.4% Latino, 10.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.8% other
VAP: 25.6% white, 3.8% black, 57.6% Latino, 11.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.5% other
2008 election: 68.7% Obama, 31.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+15
2010 election: 63.1% Brown, 36.9% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Here we dive into Los Angeles city proper, starting with this safely Democratic Latino-majority district.
LD-59 (red) – San Fernando Valley: Arleta, Sun Valley, Sunland-Tujunga
Deviation: +709
Population: 21.4% white, 3.0% black, 66.5% Latino, 7.3% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.6% other
VAP: 24.9% white, 3.2% black, 61.8% Latino, 8.3% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.5% other
2008 election: 72.1% Obama, 27.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+18
2010 election: 69.2% Brown, 30.8% Whitman
Incumbents: Alex Padilla (D–Pacoima), Raul Bocanegra (D–Pacoima)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Yet another Latino-majority district in the valley.
LD-60 (gold) – San Fernando Valley: Winnetka, Reseda, Van Nuys
Deviation: −8
Population: 24.4% white, 4.2% black, 57.2% Latino, 11.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.3% other
VAP: 28.3% white, 4.4% black, 52.4% Latino, 11.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 71.5% Obama, 28.5% McCain
2008 PVI: D+18
2010 election: 66.4% Brown, 33.6% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
I managed to squeeze a third Latino-majority district out of the valley, but it can conceivably elect a non-Latino, maybe a Jewish legislator.
LD-61 (teal) – San Fernando Valley: Tarzana, Encino, Sherman Oaks
Deviation: +1,287
Population: 62.4% white, 4.1% black, 22.1% Latino, 7.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.6% other
VAP: 64.9% white, 4.1% black, 19.8% Latino, 7.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.1% other
2008 election: 71.8% Obama, 28.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+17
2010 election: 65.5% Brown, 34.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Adrin Nazarian (D–Sherman Oaks)
Rating: Safe Democratic
A heavily white district in the valley. Will elect Democrats only except in clusterfuck situations.
LD-62 (dark gray) – Northern LA beaches: Malibu, Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades
Deviation: −910
Population: 70.3% white, 2.9% black, 13.6% Latino, 9.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.6% other
VAP: 71.6% white, 3.0% black, 12.4% Latino, 10.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.7% other
2008 election: 74.4% Obama, 25.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+21
2010 election: 66.7% Brown, 33.3% Whitman
Incumbents: Fran Pavley (D–Agoura Hills), Richard Bloom (D–Santa Monica)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Very progressive and very white. Also very parochial.
LD-63 (slate blue) – West LA: Brentwood, Beverly Hills, Westside
Deviation: −426
Population: 65.1% white, 4.6% black, 12.4% Latino, 13.6% Asian, 0.1% Native, 4.2% other
VAP: 65.7% white, 4.6% black, 11.5% Latino, 14.3% Asian, 0.1% Native, 3.7% other
2008 election: 75.7% Obama, 24.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+22
2010 election: 70.2% Brown, 29.8% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Rich and glitzy and not very Republican.
LD-64 (cyan) – Hollywood
Deviation: −882
Population: 57.4% white, 4.4% black, 25.2% Latino, 9.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.0% other
VAP: 59.7% white, 4.6% black, 22.6% Latino, 10.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.7% other
2008 election: 80.7% Obama, 19.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+27
2010 election: 76.2% Brown, 23.8% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Hollywood gets its own district. Well, Hollywood and then some.
LD-65 (deep pink) – San Fernando Valley: Burbank, Glendale, La Crescenta-Montrose
Deviation: +3,097
Population: 60.3% white, 1.6% black, 19.4% Latino, 15.3% Asian, 0.1% Native, 3.3% other
VAP: 62.4% white, 1.6% black, 17.7% Latino, 15.3% Asian, 0.1% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 65.1% Obama, 34.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+11
2010 election: 58.4% Brown, 41.4% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Up until 2000, this area had a Republican congressman. Its ancestral GOP heritage pushes down the percentages a bit, but will still elect a moderate Democrat. This district is also home to one of the largest Armenian diaspora communities.
LD-66 (chatreuse) – Western foothills: La Cañada Flintridge, Pasadena, Arcadia
Deviation: +2,423
Population: 40.1% white, 8.2% black, 24.1% Latino, 24.3% Asian, 0.1% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 42.9% white, 8.4% black, 21.7% Latino, 24.5% Asian, 0.1% Native, 2.3% other
2008 election: 66.4% Obama, 33.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+13
2010 election: 59.8% Brown, 40.2% Whitman
Incumbents: Carol Liu (D–La Cañada Flintridge), Chris Holden (D–Pasadena)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Like LD-65, this district is ancestrally GOP-leaning, but it's now securely in the blue column.
Up until 2000, this area had a Republican congressman. Its ancestral GOP heritage pushes down the percentages a bit, but will still elect a moderate Democrat. This district is also home to one of the largest Armenian diaspora communities.
LD-67 (cornflower blue) – Downtown LA: Olympic Park, Mid-Wilshire, Downtown
Deviation: +1,023
Population: 12.7% white, 10.5% black, 44.9% Latino, 29.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.0% other
VAP: 14.4% white, 11.3% black, 40.2% Latino, 32.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.9% other
2008 election: 81.3% Obama, 18.7% McCain
2008 PVI: D+28
2010 election: 81.5% Brown, 18.5% Whitman
Incumbents: John Pérez (D–Los Angeles), Holly Mitchell (D–Los Angeles)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Drawn to be an Asian-influence district, though with a Latino plurality.
LD-68 (dark salmon) – Downtown LA: Silver Lake, Echo Park, Boyle Heights
Deviation: −1,301
Population: 12.5% white, 3.1% black, 71.1% Latino, 12.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.3% other
VAP: 14.9% white, 3.5% black, 66.2% Latino, 13.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.2% other
2008 election: 83.5% Obama, 16.5% McCain
2008 PVI: D+30
2010 election: 85.2% Brown, 14.8% Whitman
Incumbents: Mike Gatto (D–Los Angeles), Jimmy Gomez (D–Los Angeles)
Rating: Safe Democratic
A heavily Latino seat for a Latino progressive.
LD-69 (olive) – Eastside: Eagle Rock, Highland Park, East LA
Deviation: +100
Population: 9.1% white, 1.2% black, 78.2% Latino, 10.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.1% other
VAP: 11.0% white, 1.4% black, 74.6% Latino, 11.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 0.9% other
2008 election: 81.6% Obama, 18.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+28
2010 election: 81.9% Brown, 18.1% Whitman
Incumbent: Kevin de León (D–Los Angeles)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The eastern end of the city, heavily Latino, low-income, and Democratic.
LD-70 (dark orange) – San Gabriel Valley: Alhambra, Monterey Park, Temple City
Deviation: −2,420
Population: 10.4% white, 0.8% black, 29.9% Latino, 57.4% Asian, 0.1% Native, 1.4% other
VAP: 11.5% white, 0.8% black, 27.3% Latino, 59.2% Asian, 0.1% Native, 1.0% other
2008 election: 65.2% Obama, 34.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+12
2010 election: 63.3% Brown, 36.7% Whitman
Incumbent: Ed Chau (D–Monterey Park)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Our last Asian-majority seat is here in one of the most famous Chinese American ethnoburbs in the United States.
LD-71 (lime) – San Gabriel Valley: El Monte, Baldwin Park, Monrovia
Deviation: +2,756
Population: 11.8% white, 2.0% black, 67.1% Latino, 17.9% Asian, 0.1% Native, 1.1% other
VAP: 13.9% white, 2.2% black, 62.6% Latino, 20.3% Asian, 0.2% Native, 0.9% other
2008 election: 70.3% Obama, 29.7% McCain
2008 PVI: D+17
2010 election: 68.6% Brown, 31.4% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
The first of two Latino seats in the San Gabriel Valley.
LD-72 (dark slate blue) – San Gabriel Valley: West Covina, Covina, Azusa
Deviation: +2,824
Population: 17.4% white, 3.0% black, 62.9% Latino, 14.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.5% other
VAP: 20.6% white, 3.2% black, 58.1% Latino, 16.5% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.3% other
2008 election: 64.4% Obama, 35.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+11
2010 election: 62.5% Brown, 37.5% Whitman
Incumbents: Ed Hernandez (D–West Covina), Roger Hernandez (D–West Covina)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The second of the two.
LD-73 (yellow) – Westside: Westchester, Culver City, Crenshaw
Deviation: −745
Population: 22.8% white, 27.1% black, 38.1% Latino, 8.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.4% other
VAP: 25.5% white, 27.7% black, 34.1% Latino, 9.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.9% other
2008 election: 84.2% Obama, 15.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+31
2010 election: 80.7% Brown, 19.3% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
The first of several LA districts intended to elect African-American representatives.
LD-74 (yellow green) – South Los Angeles
Deviation: +892
Population: 2.7% white, 22.2% black, 71.8% Latino, 1.9% Asian, 0.1% Native, 1.3% other
VAP: 3.5% white, 24.3% black, 68.1% Latino, 2.6% Asian, 0.1% Native, 1.4% other
2008 election: 93.1% Obama, 6.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+39
2010 election: 92.9% Brown, 7.1% Whitman
Incumbent: Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D–Los Angeles)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Can it get any bluer?
LD-75 (pink) – South Los Angeles, Florence-Graham, Huntington Park
Deviation: +2,612
Population: 0.9% white, 21.9% black, 75.9% Latino, 0.3% Asian, 0.1% Native, 0.8% other
VAP: 1.0% white, 23.8% black, 73.8% Latino, 0.4% Asian, 0.1% Native, 0.7% other
2008 election: 94.0% Obama, 6.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+40
2010 election: 92.2% Brown, 7.8% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Yes, it can. Behold, the bluest district in all of California.
LD-76 (maroon) – Beach Cities: Manhattan Beach, Inglewood, Hawthorne
Deviation: −2,600
Population: 24.4% white, 20.7% black, 46.7% Latino, 5.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 27.0% white, 21.9% black, 42.8% Latino, 6.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 75.0% Obama, 25.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+21
2010 election: 68.2% Brown, 31.8% Whitman
Incumbent: Roderick Wright (D–Inglewood)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This district will elect some sort of Democrat.
LD-77 (sienna) – South Bay: Westmont, Gardena, Carson
Deviation: +2,426
Population: 8.0% white, 26.9% black, 43.6% Latino, 19.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.3% other
VAP: 9.5% white, 27.5% black, 39.4% Latino, 21.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 79.7% Obama, 20.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+21
2010 election: 79.4% Brown, 20.6% Whitman
Incumbent: Steven Bradford (D–Gardena)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Very diverse, very blue.
LD-78 (aquamarine) – Gateway Cities: Watts, Compton, South Gate
Deviation: −937
Population: 1.8% white, 18.7% black, 77.9% Latino, 0.7% Asian, 0.1% Native, 0.7% other
VAP: 2.2% white, 21.2% black, 75.0% Latino, 0.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 0.7% other
2008 election: 91.8% Obama, 8.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+38
2010 election: 90.5% Brown, 9.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Isadore Hall, III (D–Compton)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This is the last of the ultra-Democratic districts. The numbers will be more down-to-earth from now on.
LD-79 (indigo) – Beach Cities: Palos Verdes, Torrance, Redondo Beach
Deviation: −2,438
Population: 50.9% white, 2.8% black, 16.1% Latino, 25.9% Asian, 0.2% Native, 4.2% other
VAP: 54.0% white, 2.7% black, 14.3% Latino, 26.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 53.5% Obama, 46.5% McCain
2008 PVI: EVEN
2010 election: 46.1% Brown, 53.9% Whitman
Incumbents: Ted Lieu (D–Torrance), Al Muratsuchi (D–Torrance)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt Democratic
A reddish-hued island in a sea of deep blue, be it water or politics. Given Muratsuchi's resounding win in a similar district last year, the Democrats should have the edge.
LD-80 (indigo) – Harbor: Wilmington, San Pedro, Long Beach
Deviation: +2,669
Population: 17.7% white, 10.2% black, 58.4% Latino, 11.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.2% other
VAP: 21.8% white, 10.5% black, 53.0% Latino, 12.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 75.0% Obama, 25.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+21
2010 election: 72.1% Brown, 27.9% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
The Harbor gets its own advocate in the state legislature.
LD-81 (gray) – Long Beach, Signal Hill
Deviation: +1,797
Population: 39.2% white, 12.0% black, 32.9% Latino, 12.3% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.3% other
VAP: 44.3% white, 11.5% black, 28.6% Latino, 12.8% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.5% other
2008 election: 67.4% Obama, 32.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 61.4% Brown, 38.6% Whitman
Incumbent: Bonnie Lowenthal (D–Long Beach)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Long Beach almost gets its own compact district.
LD-82 (spring green) – Southeastern LA County: Bell, Paramount, Lakewood
Deviation: −1,591
Population: 18.3% white, 7.8% black, 63.0% Latino, 8.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.8% other
VAP: 21.8% white, 7.9% black, 58.6% Latino, 9.9% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.5% other
2008 election: 66.8% Obama, 33.2% McCain
2008 PVI: D+13
2010 election: 64.2% Brown, 35.8% Whitman
Incumbent: Anthony Rendon (D–Lakewood)
Rating: Safe Democratic
It looks gerrymandered, reminiscent of the current AD-63. However, this is to unpack the areas around the northern end of the district, which run upwards to 90% Latino. Think fajita strips.
LD-83 (plum) – Southeastern LA County: Bell Gardens, Downey, Cerritos
Deviation: −1,728
Population: 13.0% white, 3.2% black, 65.9% Latino, 16.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.3% other
VAP: 15.5% white, 3.4% black, 61.6% Latino, 18.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.1% other
2008 election: 66.2% Obama, 33.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+13
2010 election: 63.7% Brown, 36.3% Whitman
Incumbents: Ricardo Lara (D–Bell Gardens), Cristina Garcia (D–Bell Gardens)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The second fajita strip, this one splitting Norwalk in half.
LD-84 (dark sea green) – Southeastern LA County: Montebello, Norwalk, La Mirada
Deviation: +1,323
Population: 14.1% white, 1.5% black, 75.1% Latino, 8.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.0% other
VAP: 16.6% white, 1.6% black, 71.4% Latino, 9.3% Asian, 0.3% Native, 0.9% other
2008 election: 68.0% Obama, 32.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+14
2010 election: 67.3% Brown, 32.7% Whitman
Incumbent: Ron Calderon (D–Montebello)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The third fajita strip.
LD-85 (light coral) – Southeastern LA suburbs: Whittier, Rowland Heights, La Habra
Deviation: +1,760
Population: 21.3% white, 1.1% black, 56.5% Latino, 19.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.4% other
VAP: 24.4% white, 1.2% black, 51.5% Latino, 21.6% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.2% other
2008 election: 58.1% Obama, 41.9% McCain
2008 PVI: D+4
2010 election: 54.3% Brown, 45.7% Whitman
Incumbent: Ian Calderon (D–Whittier)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The first district to puncture the Orange Curtain. We have yet another Calderon, this time in a much swingier seat. But this seat is nowhere near competitive, nepotism charges notwithstanding.
LD-86 (khaki) – Eastern foothills: Glendora, Claremont, Upland
Deviation: +2,617
Population: 52.7% white, 4.9% black, 30.2% Latino, 9.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.8% other
VAP: 56.5% white, 4.8% black, 26.7% Latino, 9.6% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 48.9% Obama, 51.1% McCain
2008 PVI: D+4
2010 election: 44.0% Brown, 56.0% Whitman
Incumbent: Mike Morrell (R–Rancho Cucamonga)
Rating: Safe Republican
A Republican district comes out of the woodwork, breaking the long string of Democratic districts.
LD-87 (orange red) – Nixon Country: Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Yorba Linda
Deviation: −1,750
Population: 43.8% white, 2.7% black, 24.6% Latino, 26.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.7% other
VAP: 46.5% white, 2.7% black, 22.1% Latino, 26.5% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.9% other
2008 election: 44.6% Obama, 55.4% McCain
2008 PVI: R+9
2010 election: 36.4% Brown, 63.6% Whitman
Incumbents: Bob Huff (R–Diamond Bar), Curt Hagman (R–Chino Hills)
Rating: Safe Republican
Your classic Orange County district, with some remnants of LA and San Bernardino counties. And with that, we leave Los Angeles behind and enter...
The Inland Empire
LD-88 (royal blue) – Walnut, Pomona, Chino
Deviation: −707
Population: 17.1% white, 5.6% black, 61.3% Latino, 14.1% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.7% other
VAP: 20.2% white, 6.3% black, 56.1% Latino, 15.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.5% other
2008 election: 63.5% Obama, 36.5% McCain
2008 PVI: D+10
2010 election: 59.6% Brown, 40.4% Whitman
Incumbent: Norma Torres (D–Pomona)
Rating:
Safe Democratic
Our first district straddles the county line, with an arm in the San Gabriel Valley.
LD-89 (lime green) – Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, Fontana
Deviation: +674
Population: 21.0% white, 7.2% black, 63.2% Latino, 6.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.8% other
VAP: 24.7% white, 7.7% black, 58.7% Latino, 7.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.5% other
2008 election: 63.0% Obama, 37.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+9
2010 election: 59.3% Brown, 40.7% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Ontario doesn't need to share with (or get dominated by) Pomona anymore.
LD-90 (dark orchid) – Fontana, Rialto, San Bernardino
Deviation: +1,949
Population: 14.4% white, 11.4% black, 67.7% Latino, 4.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.6% other
VAP: 17.4% white, 12.2% black, 63.5% Latino, 5.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.3% other
2008 election: 70.7% Obama, 29.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+17
2010 election: 68.1% Brown, 31.9% Whitman
Incumbent: Cheryl Brown (D–Rialto)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Very similar to the current AD-47, with some parts shaved off.
LD-91 (orange) – San Bernardino, Highland, Colton
Deviation: +2,774
Population: 20.0% white, 12.2% black, 60.8% Latino, 4.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.1% other
VAP: 24.7% white, 12.4% black, 55.5% Latino, 5.0% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 64.4% Obama, 35.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+11
2010 election: 63.2% Brown, 36.8% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
San Bernardino is (mostly) reunified in its own district, great for the politician who wants to escape the powerlessness of bankruptcy protection.
LD-92 (Dodger blue) – Victor Valley: Victorville, Adelanto, Hesperia
Deviation: +2,849
Population: 35.8% white, 10.7% black, 47.5% Latino, 2.9% Asian, 0.5% Native, 2.6% other
VAP: 41.2% white, 10.3% black, 42.5% Latino, 3.3% Asian, 0.6% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 47.3% Obama, 52.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+6
2010 election: 44.0% Brown, 56.0% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
It may be getting close to swing seat status, but the Republicans here can get quite conservative.
LD-93 (medium aquamarine) – High Desert: Apple Valley, Barstow, Yucca Valley
Deviation: +2,605
Population: 61.7% white, 5.6% black, 25.2% Latino, 3.3% Asian, 0.9% Native, 3.2% other
VAP: 66.7% white, 5.3% black, 21.1% Latino, 3.5% Asian, 1.0% Native, 2.4% other
2008 election: 40.0% Obama, 60.0% McCain
2008 PVI: R+14
2010 election: 37.5% Brown, 62.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Tim Donnelly (R–Twin Peaks)
Rating: Safe Republican
California's Tea Party central, where you can fire your gun and not really hit anyone. Just remember to not try to bring it through airport security.
LD-94 (moccasin) – Redlands, Yucaipa, San Jacinto
Deviation: +1,584
Population: 50.2% white, 4.8% black, 35.0% Latino, 6.5% Asian, 0.9% Native, 2.6% other
VAP: 55.9% white, 4.6% black, 29.8% Latino, 6.8% Asian, 0.9% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 46.0% Obama, 54.0% McCain
2008 PVI: R+8
2010 election: 42.8% Brown, 57.2% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
One of the far exurban districts, covered with sand and sprawl.
LD-95 (medium aquamarine) – Corona, Norco, Riverside
Deviation: +2,244
Population: 38.9% white, 6.0% black, 40.8% Latino, 11.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 42.6% white, 6.3% black, 36.7% Latino, 12.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.9% other
2008 election: 49.7% Obama, 50.3% McCain
2008 PVI: R+4
2010 election: 43.4% Brown, 56.6% Whitman
Incumbents: Richard Roth (D–Riverside), Eric Linder (R–Corona), Jose Medina (D–Riverside)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt Republican
This district has an arm sticking into eastern Riverside in order to push the adjacent LD-96 to Latino-majority status. 2012 saw a massive shift leftward in Riverside County, and this district could conceivably have fallen in Democrats' hands last year. Even if a Republican wins this seat, they will be on borrowed time.
LD-96 (medium aquamarine) – Riverside, Jurupa Valley
Deviation: +2,747
Population: 27.2% white, 5.5% black, 59.5% Latino, 5.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.9% other
VAP: 32.2% white, 6.0% black, 53.0% Latino, 6.6% Asian, 0.5% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 61.0% Obama, 39.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+7
2010 election: 57.9% Brown, 42.1% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Given the thin Democratic bench here, this would probably elect some moderate Democrat. There aren't that many Mark Takanos out there.
LD-97 (lawn green) – Moreno Valley, Mead Valley, Perris
Deviation: +2,787
Population: 18.6% white, 14.2 black, 58.9% Latino, 5.5% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 22.7% white, 14.6% black, 53.9% Latino, 6.4% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 66.0% Obama, 34.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+12
2010 election: 61.9% Brown, 38.1% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
More fertile ground for the ambitious Inland Empire Democrat.
LD-98 (magenta) – Lake Elsinore, Wildomar, Menifee
Deviation: +3,063
Population: 50.6% white, 4.7% black, 35.3% Latino, 6.1% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.9% other
VAP: 55.6% white, 4.8% black, 30.7% Latino, 6.4% Asian, 0.4% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 44.1% Obama, 55.9% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 38.1% Brown, 61.9% Whitman
Incumbents: Melissa Melendez (R–Lake Elsinore)
Rating: Safe Republican
No salvation for Democrats here.
LD-99 (medium violet red) – Temecula Valley: Murrieta, Temecula, Hemet
Deviation: +2,570
Population: 56.5% white, 4.5% black, 27.1% Latino, 7.8% Asian, 0.7% Native, 3.4% other
VAP: 60.8% white, 4.4% black, 23.6% Latino, 8.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.3% other
2008 election: 41.7% Obama, 58.3% McCain
2008 PVI: R+12
2010 election: 34.5% Brown, 65.5% Whitman
Incumbent: Bill Emmerson (R–Hemet)
Rating: Safe Republican
Rock-ribbed conservatism, now flavored with desert sand and housing sprawl.
LD-100 (turquoise) – Coachella Valley: Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Indio
Deviation: +2,456
Population: 48.1% white, 2.6% black, 44.3% Latino, 3.1% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.5% other
VAP: 56.1% white, 2.5% black, 36.6% Latino, 3.3% Asian, 0.4% Native, 1.1% other
2008 election: 56.4% Obama, 43.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+3
2010 election: 49.4% Brown, 50.6% Whitman
Incumbent: Brian Nestande (R–Palm Desert)
Rating: Likely Democratic
This district is full of old people. And rich people. And Latinos. It's like Arizona with fewer nutjobs.
Sick of the desert? There's more sand coming up.
Orange County
LD-101 (tomato) – Fullerton, Buena Park, Cypress
Deviation: −1,569
Population: 33.8% white, 2.9% black, 32.8% Latino, 27.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.6% other
VAP: 37.8% white, 2.9% black, 28.6% Latino, 28.5% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 50.4% Obama, 49.6% McCain
2008 PVI: R+2
2010 election: 43.8% Brown, 56.2% Whitman
Incumbent: Sharon Quirk-Silva (D–Fullerton)
Rating:
Likely Democratic
Similar to the current AD-65, the Democrats should hold onto this seat after their surprise gain last year.
LD-102 (thistle) – Fullerton, Anaheim, Garden Grove
Deviation: −2,660
Population: 19.3% white, 2.0% black, 60.1% Latino, 16.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.6% other
VAP: 23.4% white, 2.2% black, 54.2% Latino, 18.5% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.4% other
2008 election: 57.7% Obama, 42.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+4
2010 election: 53.4% Brown, 46.6% Whitman
Incumbent: Tom Daly (D–Anaheim)
Rating: Safe Democratic
It took a while to squeeze a Latino-majority district without using Santa Ana, but here it is. Despite the relatively low percentage, a moderate Democrat should win here even in the worst of cycles.
LD-103 (sandy brown) – Anaheim, Orange, North Tustin
Deviation: −1,848
Population: 47.9% white, 1.5% black, 35.5% Latino, 12.5% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.4% other
VAP: 51.9% white, 1.6% black, 31.3% Latino, 13.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 44.7% Obama, 55.3% McCain
2008 PVI: R+9
2010 election: 35.1% Brown, 64.9% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
Takes in quite a bit of the heavily-Latino parts of Anaheim, but the ultra-Republican foothills keep it anchored in the red column.
LD-104 (Indian red) – Los Alamitos, Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa
Deviation: −2,216
Population: 63.9% white, 1.0% black, 22.4% Latino, 9.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 67.5% white, 1.0% black, 19.1% Latino, 9.9% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.2% other
2008 election: 48.3% Obama, 51.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+5
2010 election: 38.4% Brown, 61.6% Whitman
Incumbents: Travis Allen (R–Huntington Beach), Allan Mansoor (R–Costa Mesa)
Rating: Safe Republican
This district had a huge blue spike in 2008 but reverted to its extremely red form in 2012, so it will be out of reach for Democrats.
LD-105 (powder blue) – Little Saigon: Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley
Deviation: −2,144
Population: 33.8% white, 1.0% black, 23.2% Latino, 39.4% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.4% other
VAP: 36.9% white, 1.0% black, 20.1% Latino, 40.0% Asian, 0.2% Native, 1.8% other
2008 election: 44.6% Obama, 55.4% McCain
2008 PVI: R+9
2010 election: 40.5% Brown, 59.5% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
This district will most likely elect a Vietnamese American Republican.
LD-106 (saddle brown) – Santa Ana
Deviation: −2,824
Population: 7.9% white, 0.9% black, 80.0% Latino, 10.3% Asian, 0.2% Native, 0.7% other
VAP: 10.2% white, 1.1% black, 75.6% Latino, 12.2% Asian, 0.2% Native, 0.7% other
2008 election: 68.6% Obama, 31.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+15
2010 election: 65.9% Brown, 34.1% Whitman
Incumbents: Lou Correa (D–Santa Ana)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Nicely contained within the city limits. I hope this doesn't constitute packing.
LD-107 (olive drab) – Tustin, Irvine, Lake Forest
Deviation: −1,444
Population: 44.0% white, 1.8% black, 18.9% Latino, 31.1% Asian, 0.1% Native, 4.1% other
VAP: 47.0% white, 1.8% black, 16.5% Latino, 31.4% Asian, 0.1% Native, 3.2% other
2008 election: 55.5% Obama, 44.5% McCain
2008 PVI: D+2
2010 election: 43.6% Brown, 56.4% Whitman
Incumbents: Mimi Walters (R–Irvine), Don Wagner (R–Irvine)
Rating: Tossup
I'm not sure what to make of this. Obama's performance is high enough in both 2008 and 2012 to flip the district to the Democrats, but downballot seems to be a completely different story. Maybe only Sukhee Kang can win here.
LD-108 (gainsboro) – Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano
Deviation: −575
Population: 71.3% white, 1.0% black, 14.9% Latino, 9.5% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 74.0% white, 1.0% black, 12.8% Latino, 9.7% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.2% other
2008 election: 47.7% Obama, 52.3% McCain
2008 PVI: R+6
2010 election: 35.8% Brown, 64.2% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
This is probably what most people think of when they hear "Orange County."
LD-109 (peach puff) – Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente
Deviation: −1,547
Population: 71.1% white, 1.1% black, 16.4% Latino, 7.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 3.3% other
VAP: 73.6% white, 1.2% black, 14.6% Latino, 8.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.2% other
2008 election: 43.7% Obama, 56.3% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 31.7% Brown, 68.3% Whitman
Incumbent: Diane Harkey (R–Dana Point)
Rating: Safe Republican
Capping the southern end of Orange County with blood-red turf.
San Diego/Imperial
LD-110 (rosy brown) – Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Vista
Deviation: −837
Population: 49.5% white, 4.0% black, 37.0% Latino, 5.8% Asian, 0.5% Native, 3.3% other
VAP: 55.0% white, 4.1% black, 31.7% Latino, 6.4% Asian, 0.5% Native, 2.4% other
2008 election: 48.3% Obama, 51.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+5
2010 election: 40.7% Brown, 59.3% Whitman
Incumbent: Rocky Chavez (R–Oceanside)
Rating:
Safe Republican
This area, like many parts of coastal southern California, spiked blueward in 2008 and reverted back to form in 2012. This military-dominated district is no different.
LD-111 (blue) – Carlsbad, Encinitas, San Marcos
Deviation: −281
Population: 67.4% white, 1.4% black, 21.2% Latino, 6.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.1% other
VAP: 71.0% white, 1.4% black, 18.3% Latino, 7.0% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.1% other
2008 election: 52.5% Obama, 47.5% McCain
2008 PVI: R+10
2010 election: 41.4% Brown, 58.6% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Republican
The Democratic numbers simply crashed here in 2010 and 2012. While the district is slowly trending blue, there is a long way to go.
LD-112 (green) – Fallbrook, Escondido, Poway
Deviation: −1,020
Population: 53.0% white, 1.6% black, 36.6% Latino, 5.2% Asian, 1.4% Native, 2.3% other
VAP: 58.5% white, 1.6% black, 31.3% Latino, 5.7% Asian, 1.3% Native, 1.7% other
2008 election: 40.3% Obama, 59.7% McCain
2008 PVI: R+13
2010 election: 33.4% Brown, 66.6% Whitman
Incumbents: Mark Wyland (R–Escondido), Marie Waldron (R–Escondido)
Rating: Safe Republican
Democrats aren't going to thrive here.
LD-113 (dark magenta) – San Diego: Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, Mira Mesa
Deviation: −2,309
Population: 54.0% white, 2.3% black, 9.7% Latino, 29.3% Asian, 0.2% Native, 4.4% other
VAP: 56.2% white, 2.3% black, 8.6% Latino, 29.8% Asian, 0.2% Native, 2.9% other
2008 election: 52.1% Obama, 47.9% McCain
2008 PVI: R+1
2010 election: 40.9% Brown, 59.1% Whitman
Incumbent: Brian Maeinschein (R–San Diego)
Rating: Safe Republican
Downballot Democrats will have to struggle here for a while, though not for long.
LD-114 (red) – Coronado, San Diego: La Jolla, Point Loma, Balboa Park
Deviation: −204
Population: 69.4% white, 3.1% black, 13.6% Latino, 10.2% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.4% other
VAP: 70.7% white, 3.1% black, 12.5% Latino, 10.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 66.6% Obama, 33.4% McCain
2008 PVI: D+13
2010 election: 56.4% Brown, 43.6% Whitman
Incumbent: Toni Atkins (D–San Diego)
Rating: Safe Democratic
We now enter the San Diego core and its Democratic turf.
LD-115 (gold) – San Diego: Miramar, Kearny Mesa, Kensington
Deviation: −1,208
Population: 58.1% white, 5.5% black, 21.5% Latino, 10.3% Asian, 0.4% Native, 4.2% other
VAP: 61.9% white, 5.2% black, 18.6% Latino, 10.7% Asian, 0.4% Native, 3.1% other
2008 election: 61.9% Obama, 38.1% McCain
2008 PVI: D+8
2010 election: 54.7% Brown, 45.3% Whitman
Incumbent: Marty Block (D–San Diego)
Rating: Safe Democratic
More of the same.
LD-116 (teal) – Santee, El Cajon, Lakeside
Deviation: −1,081
Population: 66.5% white, 3.5% black, 22.2% Latino, 3.4% Asian, 0.8% Native, 3.7% other
VAP: 70.4% white, 3.4% black, 19.0% Latino, 3.6% Asian, 0.8% Native, 2.8% other
2008 election: 39.8% Obama, 60.2% McCain
2008 PVI: R+14
2010 election: 34.8% Brown, 65.2% Whitman
Incumbents: Joel Anderson (R–Alpine), Brian Jones (R–Santee)
Rating: Safe Republican
A Tea Party-infused place.
LD-117 (dark gray) – La Mesa, Lemon Grove, San Diego: Rolando, Encanto, Bay Terraces
Deviation: −495
Population: 33.2% white, 13.7% black, 33.5% Latino, 15.6% Asian, 0.3% Native, 3.8% other
VAP: 38.0% white, 13.1% black, 29.1% Latino, 16.5% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.9% other
2008 election: 61.7% Obama, 38.3% McCain
2008 PVI: D+8
2010 election: 56.6% Brown, 43.4% Whitman
Incumbent: Shirley Weber (D–San Diego)
Rating: Safe Democratic
We get to the inner eastern San Diego suburbs. The partisan margins are still close, but are growing ever wider.
LD-118 (dark slate blue) – Chula Vista, National City, San Diego: Logan Heights, City Heights
Deviation: +1,219
Population: 16.5% white, 8.1% black, 60.1% Latino, 12.7% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.3% other
VAP: 20.3% white, 8.7% black, 54.7% Latino, 14.0% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.0% other
2008 election: 67.0% Obama, 33.0% McCain
2008 PVI: D+13
2010 election: 62.2% Brown, 37.8% Whitman
Incumbents: Ben Hueso (D–San Diego), Lorena Gonzalez (D–San Diego)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The first of two Latino-majority districts in the area. The CVAP might be a bit low, south San Diego Latino machine should be able to push its candidates through.
LD-119 (cyan) – Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Diego: San Ysidro, Otay Mesa
Deviation: −2,971
Population: 17.1% white, 4.0% black, 65.1% Latino, 11.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 2.5% other
VAP: 20.2% white, 4.4% black, 61.2% Latino, 12.1% Asian, 0.3% Native, 1.9% other
2008 election: 63.4% Obama, 36.6% McCain
2008 PVI: D+10
2010 election: 59.1% Brown, 40.9% Whitman
Incumbent: none
Rating: Safe Democratic
Running up against the border is this dark blue district.
And last but not least...
LD-120 (deep pink) – Imperial Valley: Coachella, El Centro, Calexico
Deviation: +2,821
Population: 19.8% white, 2.9% black, 74.4% Latino, 1.3% Asian, 0.7% Native, 0.8% other
VAP: 24.1% white, 3.7% black, 69.3% Latino, 1.5% Asian, 0.7% Native, 0.8% other
2008 election: 59.2% Obama, 40.8% McCain
2008 PVI: D+6
2010 election: 56.8% Brown, 43.2% Whitman
Incumbent: V. Manuel Perez (D–Coachella)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Another border district with a high Latino population. Mostly irrigated desert.
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The racial breakdown:
- 73 minority-minority districts
- 34 Latino-majority districts by VAP
- 3 Asian-majority districts
- 6 districts that will conceivably elect African American representatives
The partisan breakdown:
- 78 safe Democratic
- 4 likely Democratic
- 1 lean Democratic
- 7 tossup (including tilts)
- 30 safe Republican
Districts by partisan rating. Blue for Democrats, red for Republicans, and yellow for tossups.
Right off the bat, the supermajority is the Democrats' to lose. With eighty seats being the two-thirds supermajority, the Dems only have to exert some basic level of effort to relegate the Republicans to irrelevance. Of course, one shouldn't confuse a Democratic agenda with a progressive agenda, even though the California Democratic Party is one of the most progressive in the nation. There is a substantial pro-business moderate wing in the party, and they are sometimes large enough to deny even a simple majority on bills.
Thoughts and comments welcome.