The current CDS rate on US default appears to be about 200 to 1. You can bet a million to get back 200 of them. Google is not making it easy for me to find out how much money is on the line this time. Many of the articles refer back to 2011 when there was about 4.5 billion being wagered against America. That would have been a payout of about a trillion bucks similar to what was wagered against Lehman Bros. in 2008. Interestingly payout is in Euros for Credit default swaps against the US.
It is likely there is at least a trillion dollars on the line this time as well. It is all good until somebody has to pay off the big hit. Maybe that trillion is spread thin and nobody will get hurt much but I'd hate to see a US default followed by the collapse of some big CDS player like AIG. The domino theory was a stupid way to justify Viet Nam but if a US default starts the financial dominoes falling like the domino scene in V for Vendetta then look out.
The thing is there are people out there looking to collect on their 200 to 1 bet. I don't like the fact that the NSA is spying on everybody but I would hope they know who has placed those bets and who they have been talking to. Which kind of brings me to another thing that bothers me. Why is any politician permitted to vote on any bill in which he has a financial conflict of interest? If he has taken money from a political donor and then votes to benefit that donor then it seems to me that meets the definition of a bribe. It would completely nullify the Citizens United verdict if any politician had to recuse himself from a vote which would benefit big contributors.