http://fivethirtyeight.com/...
Remember, we are talking about Nate Silver and I (you should) take him seriously. This is the man/outlet that predicted an Obama Victory when all other polling groups were calling it for Romney.
From the article:
Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races.
Nate then goes into mathematical algorithms that are best explained by reading the article. After reading the piece several times (and it is well written as are all his works), I have some questions that should be addressed:
1: President Obama's approval rating is 42-43%. At what level and at what time must
he improve (say 45% by May) to become a positive in the Senate Campaign?
2: The ACA approval rating is 39% At what number (45% for example) does it become a
positive influence?
3: The "Moral Monday" demonstrations are not addressed. Either Nate Silver does not
consider them significant or they have been occurring at the pace or number where
they become significant. What wold change that?
We need to take this to heart. We ignore it at our own peril