No matter what decriers of "identity politics" say, diversity of opinion, and therefore diversity of biology matters. Women have been asserting their right to be heard more and more in recent years, and there are now a record 20 women in the Senate, but that's still pretty sad in a country where the population is 51% female, and the electorate 53%.
Anyway, this is a just an excuse to take a look at what the gender balance of Congress might look like on January 3, 2015. This diary will look at the Senate races, and a forthcoming one will look at the House.
Now, the map above has a key, which is:
- Pink represents states that have elected women to both the House and the Senate
- Salmon represents the one state (South Dakota) that has elected women to both House of Congress, but only to the Senate via special election
- Raspberry states have been represented by women in the Senate and House, but only in the Senate via appointment
- Green states have elected women to the House, but not the Senate
- and finally Blue states have not elected women to either House of Congress!
2014 Elections
36 Senate races will be decided on November 4. Four of these seats are currently held by women. All four are running for reelection, so the base change is
0.
Incumbents
Louisiana
Democrat Mary Landrieu is running for her 4th term, first elected in 1996. Landrieu is the first woman to be elected outright to the Senate, two other women were appointed in the 30s and 70s, respectively. Louisiana has no primaries, and decides the race with an all-party jungle primary on Election Day, with a runoff between the top two in December, if necessary. Out of Landrieu's three previous senate races, two of them were decided by runoff, so it's safe to say it's an established part of her electoral strategy. Her main opponent in November is Congressman Bill Cassidy. Polling has been tight, but absent a wave, I'm betting on Mary.
Lean female hold (0)
Maine
Republican Susan Collins is running for her 4th term. Collins is the 3rd woman to represent Maine, all elected outright. With the exception of her first election, she has never gotten less than 58% of the vote, and that's unlikely to change this year. Her opponent is former Executive Director of the Maine ACLU Shenna Bellows, also a woman, so this race is:
Female lock (0)
New Hampshire
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is running for her 2nd term. She became the state's first female Senator, elected or otherwise, in 2009, and has since been joined by Republican Kelly Ayotte, and New Hampshire is the first state to be represented simultaneously by two women from different parties. Shaheen is challenged this year by former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown and former Senator Bob Smith, who represented New Hampshire from 1990 to 2003, but in 2004 and 2010 attempted to run in Florida. The primary is September 9. Smith is a bit hapless and Brown even more so ("you know, whatever"), so Shaheen is favored at this point.
Likely female hold (0)
North Carolina
Democrat Kay Hagan is running for her 2nd term. Hagan won in 2008 by defeating the state's first female Senator, Republican Elizabeth Dole. Hagan's opponent is State House Speaker Thom Tillis, and the race will not be easy, not least because of the mountain of outside money coming in, but Tillis isn't a great candidate and Hagan has barely begun to unload on him. So far, calling this
Lean female hold (0)
Primaries
Hawai'i
Appointed Democratic Senator Brian Schatz is running for his first full term. Hawaii has elected one female Senator, the currently-serving Mazie Hirono. Schatz is challenged in the August 9 primary by Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa. Schatz is raising more money and supported by none other than the President, but politics in Hawaii can be weird and good polling is quite difficult, so who knows what could happen. I think Schatz has the edge since Hawai'i is dependent on federal dollars, and seniority is important to Islanders. Whoever wins the primary is well favored in the general over former State Rep. Campbell Cavasso, a rerun from 2004 and 2010.
Lean male primary (0)
Open seats
Georgia
Republican Saxby Chambliss is retiring after 2 terms. Georgia has never elected an woman to the Senate, only having one female Senator who was appointed and served a single day in the 20s. The candidates to replace Chambliss are Democrat Michelle Nunn, a non-profit executive and daughter of former Democratic Senator Sam Nunn and Republicans Congressman Jack Kingston and Businessman David Perdue, also the cousin of the current Governor. Kingston and Perdue will face off next Tuesday in a primary runoff, and it's unclear who will win. Polling currently shows Nunn ahead of both of them, but unless she wins a majority of the vote on November 4, there will be a runoff on January 6, where turnout dropoff and electoral history do not favor her. So while she's a great candidate and might even get more votes than the Republican in November, the contest is still
Lean male (0)
Iowa
Democrat Tom Harkin is retiring after 5 terms. Iowa has never elected a woman to either House of Congress. The candidates to replace Harkin are Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley and Republican state Senator Joni Ernst. Polling continues to show a competitive race, but Ernst just seemed to advocate impeachment of President Obama, so though while the outcome might be close regardless, I think the outlook is still:
Likely male (0)
Michigan
Democrat Carl Levin is retiring after 6 terms. Michigan has elected one other woman to the Senate, currently-serving Democrat Debbie Stabenow. The candidates to replace Levin are Democratic Congressman Gary Peters and Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Polling has shown a close race, but Michigan is riddled with bad Republican-leaning pollsters, so I am confident this will end up:
Likely male (0)
West Virginia
Democrat Jay Rockefeller is retiring after 5 terms. West Virginia has never elected a female Senator. The candidates to replace Rockefeller are Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant and Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, both vying to become the Mountain State's first female Senator. Capito is favored right now, and likely to win, but since the candidates are both women, it doesn't matter, the contest is:
Female lock (+1)
Challengers
Kentucky
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is running for his 6th term. Kentucky has never elected a woman to the Senate. McConnell's opponent is Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. I do not think it is hyperbole to say Grimes is the best Democratic candidate of the cycle, for any office. The fundamentals of the state favor McConnell, which hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide federal office since 1992. But 5/6 state offices are held by Democrats, and Kentucky is still majority Democratic by party registration. Grimes is a fundraising powerhouse and seems to have dynamite political instincts. I may be a bit bullish, it will be a hard-fought race, but I am currently calling it:
Tossup, tilt female pickup (+1)
Oregon
Democrat Jeff Merkeley is running for a 2nd term. Oregon has been served by one female Senator, who served one term in the 60s. Merkeley's opponent is physician Monica Wehby. I debated even putting this race in here because I don't consider the race to be competitive, especially since it's been revealed Wehby's a bit of a stalker. Anyway, I call it
Safe male
So with my current ratings, I have the Senate gaining two women (+2) in 2015. All of these are my opinion of course. Comments are welcome, though questioning the benefit of electing more women will most likely be met with stiff opposition.