Since my hard drive crashed and I'm still in the early stages of rebuilding my data, I decided it was time to take a look at some demographics and other data and to see if we can understand the changes going on in the state better, and in doing so be able to predict with at least a little confidence what will happen in the future.
I think a lot of people know a bit about Oregon's demographics, like that its overwhelmingly white, but we're still somewhat a misunderstood state. There's a lot more going on under the hood for those willing to take a peek.
I have beaten this particular horse to death, but if you went looking for a state that is white and working class, Oregon wouldn’t be a bad place to end up. Just 1.6 percent of Oregonians are African-American (though it does have its share of Hispanic and Asian voters). It ranks below the national average in income levels while having one of the nation’s higher unemployment rates.
And yet, there may be something about Oregon’s political DNA that’s a little different. As I mentioned previously, Oregon has the most left-leaning Democratic electorate in the country.
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Nate Silver
The Democrats in Oregon aren’t especially wealthy and they aren’t especially well-educated — but they are pretty darn liberal.
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Nate Silver (again)
There are a lot of stereotypes about Oregon that need to go out the window. Oregon isn't polarized between Portland (and maybe Eugene and Ashland) versus the rest of the state. In fact, if you take out Portland's votes in 2012, President Obama still won the rest of the state.
Oregon isn't a suburb of Seattle, where everyone has a college education, a "creative class" or tech job, and a Prius.
Oregon isn't full of hipsters and hippies, either. In fact, not even Eugene is full of hippies. But that's a story for another day.
Oregon is a top manufacturing state. Oregon ranks 5th in the nation in manufacturing jobs, ahead of every other state in the West, and every state in the Northeast. It ranks 2nd in manufacturing as a share of gross state product, 2nd only to Indiana.
In 2013 Oregon ranked 12th in union density, ahead of Ohio and Wisconsin.
In terms of education, Oregonians are like the rest of the country. 29.2% of Oregonians over 25 have a bachelor's degree, compared to 28.5% nationwide. But the people who do have them are pretty clustered:
People 25+ with a bachelor's degree
In the lightest colored counties the percent of people 25 and older with a bachelor's degree is in the teens, in the next lightest in the 20s, then the 30s, and in the darkest, Benton County, 48.6% of the population has a bachelor's degree. Even in the Portland metro area, where there's a largely disproportionate share, most adults are working class. Even in Lane County, home of the University of Oregon, only 25.5% of adults 25 and older have a bachelors. In Crook, Sherman, Wheeler, Umatilla, Malheur, and Morrow counties that number is under 15%. And while in most counties that number increased from 2000 to 2012, in Sherman and Union counties it actually dropped, in Sherman by over 4%.
Oregon is poorer than the country as a whole, with a poverty rate at 15.5%, whereas the national is 14.9%. Clackamas County, which had the 4th highest percentage of people with bachelor's degrees (31.8%), has the lowest poverty rate at 9.7%, and the state's only county under 10%. The map below shows each county by poverty rate. The darkest is Clackamas, the next darkest are those counties with rates between 10 and 15%, like Washington County at 10.9%, the second lightest green are between 15 and 20%, like Multnomah at 17.1%, then the tan counties have rates exceeding 20%. Malheur County has the highest at 25%, while Benton's at 21.6% is likely skewed by the fact that Oregon State University students make up such a large share of the population.
Counties by poverty rate
Related, Oregon's median household income is also below the national average, at about $50k a yearcompared to about $53k. That income, like poverty and education, is also somewhat segregated. Not in the same way, though. High in college degrees and low in poverty, Washington and Clackamas counties are the only two with MHIs above $60k a year. Columbia County, though, has fewer college educated people that average, and yet a lower poverty rate and among the highest MHIs, at more than $55k.
Counties by MHI
Deschutes County, the economic powerhouse of Central Oregon, is between the state and national averages at close to $51.5k a year, while Benton County, with a skewed number of people with degrees and in poverty because of OSU, has a more average MHI at almost $49k a year. Lane County, with UO, is significantly lower at less than $43k. Curry County, probably because as we'll see it has so many senior citizens, has one of the lower poverty rates, yet among the lowest MHIs, at less than $39k a year.
I just mentioned Curry County has a lot of senior citizens. Oregon has fewer children and more seniors than the country as a whole, at 1.5% less people under 18, and 15.5% 65 or older, compared to 14.1% nationwide. But that isn't the case in every county, or even broadly. Oregon's counties have significant differences in age breakdowns. In Curry County, for example, nearly 56% of residents are over 50 years old. Much of the coast and Eastern Oregon are significantly older than the rest of the state, while the Willamette Valley is significantly younger than the rest.
Population over 50 years old
In Marion, Multnomah, and Washington counties, the over 50 population is only about 28-29%. Malheur and Morrow are only about 1/3 over 50. Neighboring counties in the northwest corner, Columbia County is about 37% above 50, Clatsop about 41%, and Tillamook about 47% over 50.
Hood River (at 28% of residents), Multnomah (at 31.1%) and Washington (at 30.45%) have the largest shares of people between 30 and 49 years old. The top 5 counties with people in their 20s are Benton (23% of residents, and home of OSU) Multnomah (16.7% and home of PSU), Lane (15.7%, and it has UO), Polk (13.9% and home of WOU) and Union County (13.75% and home of EOU). The top 5 counties in terms of people under 20 are Morrow (31.4% of residents), Umatilla (29.5%), Marion (29.45%), Malheur (28.7%), and Yamhill (28.5%). In 4 out of 5 of those counties, the non-adult population is heavily Hispanic.
Oregon is whiter than the nation as a whole, that's true. But the white and non-white populations are not uniformly spread. The African American population is concentrated in the Portland metro area, and in specific parts of it. The Asian American population is likewise concentrated in urban areas, and in certain parts of the Portland area. While the Hispanic/Latino population also has a concentration in the Portland metro area (and especially in Washington County), there are also sizable concentrations in Hood River, Marion, Morrow, Malheur, and Umatilla counties. And while most of the rest of the state is heavily white, that isn't true of the under 18 population everywhere.
The adult population is still overwhelmingly white. Statewide in 2013 the non-Hispanic/Latino, white alone population is estimated at 62.6% for the country, but 77.5% for Oregon. The below map shows the 2010 white only population's percentage in each county. Wallowa County is the only one above 95%, and so it is the darkest. The next darkest includes Columbia and Deschutes counties, among many others, where the adult population is between 90 and 90% white.
Clackamas, Lane, and Benton counties are included in the group that is 85-90% white among adults. Yamhill, Wasco, and Klamath are in the group that is 80-85%, and Multnomah is the only county between 75 and 80%. Marion and Washington counties are the biggest in the under 75% group, and Malheur and Jefferson are the only counties where the white population among adults is below 70%.
The under 18 population is much less white only. Using the same color scale as above, I have to add more colors.
But wait,
I've discussed this before!
In Washington County the non-white share of the under 18 population is 42%. In Multnomah and Umatilla counties, its 44%. In Marion County it is nearly 48%, in Hood River it is just a hair below 50%, and in Morrow and Malheur it's over 50%. Malheur County's white population actually shrank between 2000 and 2010, while its Hispanic population grew significantly. In Jefferson County over 61% of the under 18 population is non-white. Even on the Coast, which tends to be whiter than the state, every county's under 18 population is at least 20% non-white, and in Lincoln County it is 30%.
This is not only in Hispanic populations, as generally across most communities the Asian American, African American, Hispanic, and Native American populations as well show higher portions among under 18 populations than among adult populations.
Comparing the white alone share of the population among adults and minors
I mentioned that Malheur County's white population actually shrank during the decade 2000-2010, but that appears to be the case for many counties. In the following map white counties saw an increase in the white population greater than that of the nonwhite population in raw numbers (nonwhite population increased more everywhere by proportion), while gray counties had an increase in both nonwhite and white, but more among the nonwhite populations than white. Red saw an outright decline in the white population. Two of the red counties had a decline in both white and nonwhite, but the white population fell more, in the rest the nonwhite population increased.
Speaking of growth, what about job growth? Or at least, restoration. The next map depicts
the extent to which counties have seen their job losses from the last recession restored. The darkest counties like Multnomah and Washington have seen all of their losses restored, the next darkest like Deschutes and Marion have seen most of them restored. Counties like Clackamas and Lane have only seen somewhere around half restored, the pale blue counties have only had about 1/3 come back, and the lightest counties like Curry and Gilliam have seen fewer than 10% of job losses from the recession restored. And some of them hadn't recovered from the
previous recession.
Speaking of jobs, how about commuting? The
state Office of Economic Analysis produced this map, showing which counties have a lot of jobs relative to their populations and bring in more commuters (boardroom), which have large flows of commuters in and out (melting pot), autonomous counties where there are few commuters and most work within the county, and bedroom communities which have low numbers of jobs relative to their population, and so have large outward flows of commuters.
Well, so what does all this tell us?
In my last post about voter registration trends I mentioned that there's evidence that Oregon's metro areas are gaining population at the expense of the rural areas, and in terms of interstate migration:
In terms of the California flows, they disproportionately choose to move to Southern Oregon, the South Coast and Central Oregon. Portland gets their fair share but overall the bigger trends are to those other regions. In terms of where they come from, they’re predominantly Southern Californian (LA and San Diego).
When it comes to migration from all other states, the majority of them do go to the Portland Metro however the coastal regions and other west-of-the-cascade regions do see some influx. The net outmigration from SE Oregon is entirely to Idaho. If you exclude Idaho from that group then there is a small net in-migration.
Then I have to recall another piece I did about a year ago:
Acres Don't Vote, which covered the share of the statewide vote that counties and regions cast. In putting together that post I found that the Portland metro area and Eastern Oregon were the only regions that had a growing share of the statewide vote, while other regions were relatively stable or declining. And in Eastern Oregon it was really just Central Oregon (Deschutes, Jefferson, and Crook counties) that were growing, the rest of the region was stable or shrinking.
Putting all of this together a few things seem to stand out.
The Portland metro area, and to a lesser extent the other major metropolitan areas (and the Linn-Benton CSA) are the economic engines of the state, where the educated, the jobs, and the wealth area. That's where people are moving to from rural areas and other states to get educations and jobs. The major metro areas are generally more diverse and younger than the surrounding areas, attracting young people who are looking for jobs from other counties, and people from other states and countries as well.
These metro areas are attracting both Democrats and Republicans, but the Democrats and Republicans seem to be going to different places. In Central Oregon both Jefferson nor Crook counties seem to be getting more Republican recently, but Deschutes has at worst been stable, attracting comparable numbers of new Democrats and Republicans. And even though its a bedroom county that seems to be trending Republican for now, how long can that keep up in Jefferson County, given it is the least white county in the state, and that the under 18 population was barely 40% white in 2010?
If you split eastern OR into Deschutes county and everything else, the part that's trending red isn't growing and the part that's growing isn't trending red.
-sacman701
Out of the entire Upper Valley Linn County (Albany, Lebanon) is the only part that has seen significant Republican growth, the rest has had declining numbers of Republicans. And is it surprising given that Linn is a bedroom county, with significant white population growth? What's really interesting is that in the last few elections Albany and Lebanon seem to be trending Democratic, its the rest of the county thats getting more Republican. Benton County (Corvallis) is really booming, and becoming increasingly Democratic. Lane County (the Eugene-Springfield metro area) has struggled economically, and has been relatively stable politically compared to the other two counties.
Voter registration trends among counties
The Mid Valley counties include the Salem metro area, in Polk and Marion counties, and then Yamhill which is on the fringe of both the Portland and Salem areas. All three counties lean Republican, but not strongly. Polk is the only county where the white population grew by more than the nonwhite, and Marion saw an outright decline in the white population and has a booming Hispanic/Latino population. The region does seem to have Republican growth, as both Polk and Yamhill have seen rising numbers, but the region is not voting any more Republican, with Republican growth being balanced by Democratic, similar to Central Oregon. With reasonable job recoveries and colleges and universities in each of the counties, they are retaining many young people and continuing to grow.
In Southern Oregon the Medford-Ashland area has both Democrats and Republicans growing, with most Democrats generally settling in Medford, Ashland, or in between, and Republicans in different parts of Medford, or in other cities like Central Point, Eagle Point, or the Grants Pass area.
In the Portland area, Democrats are growing into all three of the big counties, but Democrats are declining in Columbia County, which is on the northern fringe of the metro area. Republicans are growing a bit in Clackamas County and Columbia County, but have continued to decline in Multnomah and Washington counties.
The almost all of the rest of the state is shrinking in population and votes.
Green counties are growing in registered voters, red are losing them
And the places that aren't, Umatilla, Hood River, Lincoln, and Clatsop counties, don't look that bad for Democrats as we go into the future. Lincoln County is one of the most Democratic counties in the state, and that does not seem to be changing much at all. It is also the most diverse of the coastal counties, with growing Hispanic/Latino and Native American populations. Clatsop County is likewise a Democratic county on the coast that has shown little sign of shifting the other way. Hood River is also now one of the most Democratic counties in the state, but was not traditionally, because it has dramatically shifted towards us over the last few years. And with a relatively large Hispanic population (and nearly half of minors being nonwhite) that trend should solidify. Only Umatilla of those is a Republican county, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. However most of the larger cities in the county (none are particularly big) have significant Hispanic populations, and there's a reservation there as well. Given the under 18 population is 44% nonwhite, I think in the coming years it will be possible for Democrats to cut into Republican margins. Particularly because as I pointed out above, the county actually lost whites in the last decade.
Most of the rest of the state has one of three stories. Curry County is alone because of its particular status. It's home to a higher portion of people from out of state than anywhere else, and the vast majority are from Southern California, and retirees. That's where the population growth comes from, and that's why it continues to grow despite not having a great economy, and why it has such a low poverty rate despite low median income.
There are two broad categories that most of the other counties fall into. Both groups are mostly stagnant economically, with little hope for young people, many of whom are fleeing to the more urban areas for educations and jobs. One group of counties is older and whiter, like Baker County. There the largely white flight among the younger population is leaving a population behind that is still heavily white both among adults and minors, and so the demographic make-up of the population is still changing slowly. The other group of counties includes Malheur and Morrow, where white flight is leaving behind a population that is very young and nonwhite. Both counties had among the highest populations under 18 in 2010 of all counties in the state, both had a majority of those under 18 also being nonwhite. Now almost all of these counties are seeing a decrease in the white population, and all are becoming less white, and will be even more so in the next generation, but white flight in some of these counties, like Morrow, Malheur, and even more urban counties like Umatilla and Marion, will dramatically change these communities quickly, as others around them change much more slowly.
State House District 57
In fact, the state house district stretching from Umatilla westward through Morrow, Sherman, and Gilliam counties had an under 18 population about half nonwhite, with the vast majority of that being Hispanic/Latino. Today that district is safely Republican (President Obama was defeated there by Romney nearly 2-1), but someday a district there may be majority Hispanic/Latino, and a majority of voters someday might be too. Unlike the white population, the Hispanic/Latino population seems to be growing, with the population going from 16% to 25% from 2000 to 2010.
The main story, though, is the metro areas. My series has examined them more closely. As you can see in the map below, for the most part the Portland and Bend metro areas are becoming more important politically in the state, with green counties growing in their shares of the statewide vote from 1996 to 2012. Salmon colored counties are declining in their shares of the statewide vote, declining in importance, while white counties were steady.