Illinois Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn
On behalf of the Democratic Governor's Association, Global Strategy Group surveyed the Illinois' gubernatorial race and they found something no one's found in a very long time:
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is in the lead. GSG gives Quinn a small 43-40 edge over Republican businessman Bruce Rauner, with Libertarian Chad Grimm taking 5. No cross-tabs were provided here. The
only other time Quinn led Rauner in a publicly released poll was in November of 2013. Since then Quinn has trailed by as much as double digits: Even Democratic pollsters Garin-Hart-Yang and the Mellman Group have shown Quinn trailing by a small amount.
Quinn's campaign has relentlessly been portraying Rauner as heartless plutocrat, and Rauner has provided the Democrats with plenty of ammunition. In August, news broke that Rauner had his company stash funds in the Cayman Islands to avoid American taxes. In the last week we've also learned that not long ago, Rauner wanted to eliminate the state minimum wage. The fact that Rauner once paid $100,000 to join a wine club did not exactly help his image either.
We took a look at GSG's track record. Here are their 2010 polls: We've included the last poll they released for any race from October on.
• HI-01: Global Strategy Group: Hanabusa (D) 48-44; actual: Hanabusa (D) 50-44; error +2 R
• IA-Gov: Global Strategy Group: Branstad (R) 46-40; actual: Branstad (R) 53-43; error +4 D
• WV-Sen: Global Strategy Group: Manchin (D) 48-43; actual: Manchin (D); 53-43; error +5 R
And here is 2012:
• CA-09: Global Strategy Group: McNerney (D) 47-38; actual: McNerney (D) 56-44; +3 R
• FL-10: Global Strategy Group: Webster (R) 43-41; actual: Webster (R) 52-48; +2 D
• IN-Sen: Global Strategy Group: Donnelly (D) 43-36; actual: Donnelly (D) 50-44; +1 D
• MN-08: Global Strategy Group: Cravaack (R) 42-42; actual: Nolan (D) 54-46; +8 R
• NH-01: Global Strategy Group: Shea-Porter (D) 46-43; actual: Shea-Porter (D) 50-46; +1 R
• NY-18: Global Strategy Group: Hayworth (R) 44-42; actual: Maloney (D) 52-48; +6 R
• NY-21: Global Strategy Group: Owens (D) 47-40; actual: Owens (D) 50-48; +5 D
• UT-04: Global Strategy Group: Matheson (D) 48-41; actual: Matheson (D) 49-49; +7 D
Between the two cycles, GSG's average error was 0.5 percent in the Republican's direction. They underestimated the winner's margin by an average of 4 points. Overall, an incredibly good record.
This is just one poll, and we'll need to see more before we can start to conclude that the tide is turning. Internal polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, and it's always good to be cautious when one poll shows an unusual result. Quinn is still unpopular and Republicans can very well win here. Still, Quinn's team can't be complaining about this survey.