If you have been following the midterm elections closely, you will know that YouGov has, three times now, dumped a bunch of surveys on every single Senate and gubernatorial election taking place this year. These surveys paint a mostly rosy picture for Republicans, and display some numbers that have not been picked up by other, more reputable pollsters. As someone who has taken all three of their midterm elections surveys, I feel as though I am in a good position to evaluate what exactly they are doing, and how effective it is. Follow me below the fold for my own experiences.
Here's how their latest survey (their third) began:
As you may have read, a group of Islamic militants referred to as ISIS, has taken control of parts of Iraq and Syria. Do you favor or oppose U.S. airstrikes against ISIS?
( ) Oppose
(X) Favor
( ) Not sure
From what you've seen or heard, which political party comes closest to your view of what should be done about ISIS?
( ) Republicans
(X) Democrats
( ) Both
( ) Neither
( ) Not sure
How important will the situation with ISIS and the Middle East be for your vote in the November midterm elections?
( ) Very important
( ) Somewhat important
( ) Slightly important
(X) Not important
Whoa! Right out of the gate with some strongly leading questions. ISIS was not even on my mind before I read those questions, but it is now. These seem like questions that would definitely shade people's opinions before we even get to the horserace questions.
Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there's an election going on or not. Others aren't that interested. Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs...
(X) Most of the time
( ) Some of the time
( ) Only now and then
( ) Hardly at all
( ) Don't know
Are you currently registered to vote?
(X) Yes, I am registered to vote at [address]
( ) Yes, I am registered to vote, but at a different address
( ) Not currently registered
How likely is it that you will vote in the election this November?
( ) Definitely will not vote
( ) Probably will not vote
( ) Maybe will vote
( ) Probably will vote
(X) Definitely will vote
( ) Don't know
How do you plan to vote in the elections to be held on November 4?
( ) Vote by mail (absentee)
(X) In person before election day (early voting)
( ) In person on election day
( ) Not sure
If the election for Governor in Florida were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?
( ) Rick Scott (Republican)
(X) Charlie Crist (Democrat)
( ) Other (please specify) [blank space]
( ) Won't vote
( ) Not sure
Have you made up your mind to vote for Charlie Crist for Governor or is there a chance you might vote for a different candidate?
(X) Definitely will vote for Charlie Crist - my mind is made up
( ) I will probably vote for Charlie Crist, but there is a chance I'll vote for someone else
( ) I'm just leaning toward Charlie Crist
Note that the first horserace question, asking voters if they are planning on voting for Rick Scott or Charlie Crist, is the EIGHTH question in the survey.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, who would you vote for?
(X) Wes Neuman (Democrat)
( ) John Mica (Republican)
( ) Other (please specify) [blank space]
( ) Won't vote
( ) Not sure
Have you made up your mind to vote for Wes Neuman for U.S. House of Representatives or is there a chance you might vote for a different candidate?
(X) Definitely will vote for Wes Neuman - my mind is made up
( ) I will probably vote for Wes Neuman, but there is a chance I'll vote for someone else
( ) I'm just leaning toward Wes Neuman
This is the third time that I have been asked about the congressional election in my district, which puts Republican John Mica against Democrat Wes Neuman, but not once have I ever seen these poll results actually released to the public. It's possible that the sample size for my district was too small for their poll to actually be scientific, but still. Why ask if if you don't plan on releasing it?
As you know, President Obama will not be on the ballot in this year's Congressional midterms. Will you consider your vote in the 2014 Congressional elections to be:
(X) A vote in support of President Obama and his policies
( ) A vote against President Obama and his policies
( ) President Obama and his policies will not be a factor in my vote
Which party would you like to see control Congress after the election?
( ) Republicans
(X) Democrats
( ) Don't care
In deciding how to vote for Congress, how important is it to you which party controls Congress after the election?
(X) Very important
( ) Somewhat important
( ) Not important
These questions are leading, too. Normally, this would not be a problem, as they are tucked behind the horserace questions. However, YouGov allows its respondents to backtrack and re-answer questions, which is how I was able to grab all of these questions in the first place. It is possible, though I do not know how likely, that someone could initially indicate that they were voting for Charlie Crist, and then they realize, "Hey! I don't like Obama, and I would vote against him if I could. Why am I voting for Charlie Crist?" Traditional polls do not allow respondents to backtrack in their answers, so this is incredibly problematic.
How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections for Congress in November?
( ) Very enthusiastic
(X) Somewhat enthusiastic
( ) Only a little
( ) Not at all
Havve you discussed the upcoming Florida elections with your friends or family?
(X) Often
( ) A few times
( ) Hardly at all
( ) Never
Generally, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the following people?
Bill Nelson:
(X) Very favorable
( ) Somewhat favorable
( ) Neutral
( ) Somewhat unfavorable
( ) Very unfavorable
Marco Rubio:
( ) Very favorable
( ) Somewhat favorable
( ) Neutral
( ) Somewhat unfavorable
(X) Very unfavorable
Charlie Crist:
(X) Very favorable
( ) Somewhat favorable
( ) Neutral
( ) Somewhat unfavorable
( ) Very unfavorable
Rick Scott:
( ) Very favorable
( ) Somewhat favorable
( ) Neutral
( ) Somewhat unfavorable
(X) Very unfavorable
Wes Neuman:
( ) Very favorable
(X) Somewhat favorable
( ) Neutral
( ) Somewhat unfavorable
( ) Very unfavorable
John Mica:
( ) Very favorable
( ) Somewhat favorable
( ) Neutral
(X) Somewhat unfavorable
( ) Very unfavorable
Have you been personally contacted by any of the following campaigns, either by phone call or by an in-person visit? Check all that apply:
(X) Charlie Crist
( ) Rick Scott
(X) Wes Neuman
( ) John Mica
( ) None of the above
Have you seen any advertisements (in newspapers or on radio, TV, or the web) for any of the following candidates? Check all that apply:
(X) Charlie Crist
(X) Rick Scott
( ) Wes Neuman
( ) John Mica
( ) None of the above
Overall, do you think that the economy is getting better or worse?
( ) Getting worse
( ) About the same
(X) Getting better
( ) Not sure
How about the economy in Florida? Do you think the economy in Florida is getting better or worse?
( ) Getting worse
(X) About the same
( ) Getting better
( ) Not sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
( ) Strongly disapprove
( ) Somewhat disapprove
( ) Somewhat approve
(X) Strongly above
( ) Not sure
In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?
(X) Very liberal
( ) Liberal
( ) Moderate
( ) Conservative
( ) Very conservative
( ) Not sure
How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?
( ) Support the Tea Party movement
(X) Oppose the Tea Party movement
( ) Neither support nor oppose
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...?
(X) Democrat
( ) Republican
( ) Independent
( ) Other (please specify) [blank space]
( ) Not sure
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
(X) Strong Democrat
( ) Not very strong Democrat
Thinking about your phone service, do you have...?
( ) A landline and a cell phone
(X) Cell phone only
( ) Landline only
( ) No landline or cell phone service
There were no real problems with any of these questions; they all seem, to the best of my knowledge, fairly standard as far as surveys go.
Ultimately, though, until YouGov is able to work through these fundamental issues with their questions, their polls are essentially worthless.