What are the odds of picking the winners of 16 horse races in a row?
Let’s assume there’s just two horses per race like a two-party political system. With two horses per race, the odds would be 2 to the 16th power or 1 out of 65,536. A long shot, right?
Not if you live in Ohio.
Here’s the winners of the Ohio congressional races two weeks before the election
District |
Winner |
Party |
1 |
Steve Chabot |
Republican |
2 |
Brad Wenstrup |
Republican |
3 |
Joyce Beatty |
Democratic |
4 |
Jim Jordan |
Republican |
5 |
Bob Latta |
Republican |
6 |
Bill Johnson |
Republican |
7 |
Bob Gibbs |
Republican |
8 |
John Boehner |
Republican |
9 |
Marcy Kaptur |
Democratic |
10 |
Mike Turner |
Republican |
11 |
Marcia Fudge |
Democratic |
12 |
Pat Tiberi |
Republican |
13 |
Tim Ryan |
Democratic |
14 |
David Joyce |
Republican |
15 |
Steve Stivers |
Republican |
16 |
Jim Renacci |
Republican |
How can I do this?
It’s simple. The districts are rigged. If you don’t believe me, save this post and check the results after the election.
The Democratic Party will always win four seats because Republicans drew twelve districts in their favor and jammed most of Ohio's Democratic voters into four weirdly drawn districts. They'll never win these four districts but the odds of them winning the other twelve are almost certain.
One way I've found to raise awareness is by offering to bet people $100 that I can pick all 16 races. I can pick them because they've been fixed by Republicans in Columbus. So far no one has been willing to take the bet, but it's generated a lot of conversation.
By and large, if you explain it this way, everyone is against it. 100% of everyone.
Here's my full op-ed on Ohio vote rigging and how to fix it at the Cincinnati Enquirer.
This amazing picture from the Cleveland Plain Dealer shows the districts and the percentages of voters.
Note how high the percentages are in Democratic districts. This is because all of the people who tend to vote for the Democratic Party have been moved into four districts.