Charlie Crist, working the GOTV in Miami.
I've been saying this is a 50-50 election, with base intensity the tie-breaker. These non-presidential-years are brutal for Democrats, as our core base demographics—single women, people of color, young voters—are the least likely to vote. But really, our ability to turn them out will essentially determine whether we come out of this elections as winners, or let the Republicans walk away with big wins.
Using the poll aggregator at the Huffington Post, I've compiled the current state of the hottest races this cycle, as well as what would happen if Dems shift the numbers a mere two points, then three points:
We can caveat the shit out of the current state of polling and quibble about how well they actually represent reality—but these numbers are a great worst-case scenario, so let's run with them. And what do they tell us?
In the Senate, if the election was held today and these numbers held up, Republicans would pick up AR, AK, CO, IA, LA, MT, SD, and WV. They would lose Kansas for a net pick up of seven seats, or a 52-48 Mitch McConnell majority. Heck, at that point Kansas Independent Greg Orman would try to caucus with Republicans, and if they took him, that would be a 53-47 GOP majority.
But slide those numbers over just three points—easily doable if we get our "non-likely" voters to the polls, and things change significantly. Suddenly, Republicans are only assured of pickups in AK, LA, MT, and WV, with losses in Kansas and a too-close-to-call race in Arkansas (Blue), Kentucky (Red), and probably South Dakota. Even if they squeaked by in those three states, they'd still be shy of the majority.
In the Governor races, Democrats would pick up Alaska, Florida, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Maine, while losing Arkansas and Massachusetts (and maybe Connecticut), a net pickup of 2-3 seats, including the big important ones in FL and PA. But check it out—if Dems got a three-point boost in their performance, Dems would add Michigan and Wisconsin to their total, while Massachusetts and Connecticut would stay Blue. That would total a Democratic net gain of five seats, with Georgia still in play.
On the other hand, we sit pat, and the GOP picks up another point or two from Democratic apathy? You can look at the chart and do the math yourself.
That's how important GOTV will be in these final days of this cycle—whether it's making sure people in your social circle have voted (whether local or distant friends and family), whether it's making calls to get our partisans to the polls, whether it's donating those last three bucks to a worthy campaign, it all adds up.
This election will be won or lost by votes in the single thousands. Don't wake up post-Election Day Wednesday and wonder if you could've done that little bit more to get us over the edge. We are right there, victory is in sight, we just have to do what the media and pollsters don't think we can, and that's get our people to vote.