By now if you are like me, you have probably had your fill of Optimistic pundits telling you that the Dems. have the momentum and Pessimistic pundits saying we're doomed. So I decided to take a look at the polls myself to see if I can come up with some realistic Senate projections on November 4 (or possibly on December 6, I'll explain later).
So if you're interested in joining me in the "reality-based" community for an analysis of the polling in the key Senate races, please following me as I jump /\ over the orange squiggle.
Before I get into the polling of the individual races, let me give you my basic philosophy on projecting races. First, for me "It's all about the Trends, the Trends, the Trends; Its all about the Trend." Especially in the final few weeks of the campaigns. Its far more important to look at the polls with an eye towards which way a race is going, than who had a double digit lead back in early September. Second, if you look back at past polls of "likely" voters in comparison to the actual final results you will find that in many cases, the Dem. out performed the poll, largely due to our superior GOTV efforts, even in an off-year election. So, I think don't think its being overly optimistic to add 0.5 to 1.0 point to a Dems. poll numbers, at least in some states where our GOTV is strong.
That said, lets first see what the competitive Senate races are. For this I am relying on Real Clear Politics who I think has done a fairly good job of selecting the "toss-up" Senate races in 2014, except I have added the Arkansas and Kentucky races to Real Clear Politics' (RCPs') toss-up list. I have also given each Party a total of 45 seats that are not up in 2014 or "safe" seats. So here are the 10 "toss-up" Senate races (in alphabetical order), with the October polls in each (from RCP) and my take on each race (for what its worth):
ALASKA:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Sullivan(R) Begich(D)
Ivan Moore 10/24-26 544LV ? 42 48 +6(D)
CBS News 10/16-23 561LV 9.0 48 44 +4(R)
Rasmussen 10/8-12 700LV 4.0 48 45 +3(R)
Fox News (R) 10/4-7 706LV 3.5 44 40 +4(R)
CNN 10/1-6 704LV 3.5 50 44 +6(R)
ANALYSIS: Trends don't have to be up or down. Trends can be flat, as seems to be the case with the Alaska Senate race, except for the latest poll. I have a hard time believing a single poll that shows the race has flipped by more than 10 points. Also, for whatever reason, the polls in Alaska have been historically inaccurate in predicting the actual result. Begich won his seat by a thin margin when the polls showed a 10 point spread over the incumbent who was embroiled in a huge political money scandal at the time. Now he is running against a Republican opponent that is not in a scandal in a Republican State, making his task an uphill battle even with reportedly very superior GOTV. But if another poll comes out corroborating the Moore poll, I might see things differently.
PROJECTION: Sullivan (R); Senate 45D / 46R
ARKANSAS:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Cotton(R) Pryor(D)
Arkansas Poll 10/21-27 568LV 4.1 49 36 +13(R)
Rasmussen 10/27-29 967LV 3.0 51 44 +7(R)
NBC News 10/18-22 621LV 3.9 45 43 +2(R)
CBS News 10/16-23 1567LV 4.0 47 42 +5(R)
Talk Business 10/15-16 2075LV 2.2 49 41 +8(R)
Rasmussen 10/13-15 940LV 3.0 47 43 +3(R)
Fox News (R) 10/4-7 707LV 3.5 46 39 +7(R)
ANALYSIS: Polls which are from a "Business" organization or Fox News which are 3 or more points favorable to the Republican than the other "non-partisan" polls need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Not to say they should be discounted altogether, but they shouldn't treated with the same level of trust as the other polls without knowing anything about the internals. That said, the remaining polls range from +2 to +13 for Cotton(R), with trend towards Cotton based on most recent polls. Also, Real Clear Politics has recently moved this race from "toss-up" to "leans Republican".
PROJECTION: Cotton (R); Senate 45D / 47R
COLORADO:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Gardner(R) Udall(D)
SUSA 10/27-29 618LV 4.0 46 44 +2(R)
Quinnipiac 10/22-27 844LV 3.4 46 39 +7(R)
Rasmussen 10/21-23 966LV 3.0 51 45 +6(R)
NBC News 10/18-22 755LV 3.6 46 45 +1(R)
CBS News 10/16-23 1611LV 4.0 46 47 +1(D)
USA Today 10/18-21 500LV 4.4 46 39 +7(R)
Quinnipiac 10/15-21 974LV 3.1 46 41 +5(R)
PPP (D) 10/16-19 778LV 3.5 47 44 +3(R)
Reuters 10/13-20 1099LV 3.4 47 45 +2(R)
CNN 10/9-13 665LV 4.0 50 46 +4(R)
SUSA 10/9-12 ?LV 4.1 45 43 +2(R)
ANALYSIS: Based on the most recent two polls, this race is basically all tied up right now. But a comparison of recent verses older October polls, one can see a definite trend towards Udall, except for two recent polls which show Gardner with a sizeable lead. However, the most recent poll again shows a tight race. In a tight race with the superior GOTV effort and the fact that Colorado is a purple state with progressive aspects (note the legalization of weed), and you got to believe that Udall has a shot.
PROJECTION: Udall (D); Senate 46D / 47R
GEORGIA:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Perdue(R) Nunn(D)
WSB-TV 10/29-29 1500LV 2.5 47 47 0
SUSA 10/24-27 611LV 4.0 48 45 +3(R)
CBS News 10/16-23 1774LV 4.0 47 43 +3(R)
Atlanta Journal 10/16-23 1170LV 3.6 44 42 +2(R)
Insider Advantage 10/21-22 704LV 3.7 45 47 +2(D)
WSB-TV 10/20-21 1000LV 2.8 47 47 0
CNN 10/19-22 565LV 4.0 44 47 +3(D)
ANALYSIS: Back in September the polls showed a real clear trend towards Nunn, after Perdue's statements on outsourcing. But the October polls suggest that the race has stagnated, becoming a virtual tie with both candidates being able to claim a small lead depending on what poll they choose to cite. However, we have a far superior GOTV effort here, with independent organizations signing up thousands of new voters in Districts which have traditionally supported Dems. Because of this, it looks like you could add a point or two for Nunn that may be enough for her to come out on top on November 4. But this race has a third candidate in it (not shown above) and Georgia's rules require the candidate with the most votes on November 4 to get above 50% in order to avoid another run-off vote on January 6 with the second place finisher. As you can see by the polls above, no matter who comes out on top on November 4, it is unlikely that they will get above 50%. So a January 6 run-off in this race looks like a good bet. Since I am not familiar with the third candidate in this race, I am not sure where her votes would go in January 6 run-off. Still if Nunn can duplicate a good GOTV effort again on January 6, she has a good shot. However, this is one of the two races (Louisiana being the other) where a requirement to have over 50% of the vote makes for a very real possibility that we won't know who controls the Senate on November 4.
PROJECTION: Nunn (D); Senate 47D / 47R
IOWA:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Ernst(R) Braley(D)
Reuters 10/23-29 1129LV 3.3 45 45 0
Quinnipiac 10/22-27 817LV 3.4 49 45 +4(R)
Loras College 10/21-24 1121LV 2.9 44 45 +1(D)
USA Today 10/18-21 500LV 4.4 46 39 +7(R)
NBC News 10/18-22 772LV 3.5 49 46 +3(R)
CBS News 10/16-23 2322LV 3.0 44 44 0
USA Today 10/11-14 500LV 4.4 47 43 +4(R)
Rasmussen 10/8-10 957LV 3.0 48 45 +3(R)
ANALYSIS: Another tight race with no obvious up or down trend for either candidate. While GOTV will help Braley, I am not sure he it may be enough to get him over his Mitt Romney type remark about farmers in a State full of farmers. He may be able to pull it off, but currently most polls don't show it.
PROJECTION: Ernst (R); Senate 47D / 48R
KANSAS:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Roberts(R) Orman(I)
SUSA 10/22-26 623LV 4.0 42 44 +2(I)
NBC News 10/18-22 757LV 3.6 44 45 +1(I)
CBS News 10/16-23 1973LV 4.0 42 38 +4(R)
Rasmussen 10/20-21 960LV 3.0 45 49 +5(I)
Remington (R) 10/9-12 1091LV 3.0 48 46 +2(R)
PPP (D) 10/9-12 1081LV 3.0 43 46 +3(I)
ANALYSIS: Orman seems well positioned to take this race. He has some advantage in the polls plus Roberts doesn't do much to excite Republican voters. The real question here may be what Orman will do if he wins. We all know he has said he will caucus with whichever Party is in the majority, but has not said who he will caucus with if he gets to decide on which Party gets to be in the majority. But since he has gotten to this place in the polls by the Dem. dropping out after intervention by Claire McCaskell, one has to believe he will caucus with us (or he has conned the Dems.).
PROJECTION: Orman (I); Senate 48D / 48R
KENTUCKY:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
McConnell(R) Grimes(D)
SUSA 10/25-29 597LV 4.1 48 43 +5(R)
CBS News 10/16-23 1502LV 4.0 45 39 +6(R)
SUSA 10/15-19 655LV 3.9 44 43 +1(R)
Rasmussen 10/15-16 1000LV 3.0 52 44 +8(R)
W. Kentucky U. 10/6-19 ?LV 4.1 45 42 +3(R)
Fox News (R) 10/4-7 706LV 3.5 45 41 +4(R)
ANALYSIS: While there has been a lot of hipe in this race about Grimes chances of beating the Republican boss in the Senate, the recent polls don't seem to bear out that hipe I'm afraid. McConnell leads in all the reputable October polls, and 4 out of 6 of his leads are outside the margin of error. While I think Grimes superior ground operation will make this a tighter race than shown by some of these polls, I am not sure its enough to overcome the inherent Republican advantage in this state. Plus I think some voters are not willing to toss out someone who has the chance to be #1 in the Senate for them, for someone who will be at the bottom of the Senate ranks.
PROJECTION: McConnell (R); Senate 48D / 49R
LOUISIANA:
November 4 Polls:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Cassidy(R) Landrieu(D)
USA Today 10/23-26 500LV 4.4 35 36 +1(D)
Rasmussen 10/22-23 988LV 3.0 36 43 +7(D)
CBS News 10/16-23 1316LV 5.0 32 37 +5(D)
WAFB/FOX 10/14-19 605LV 4.0 32 36 +4(D)
December 6 Polls:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Cassidy(R) Landrieu(D)
USA Today 10/23-26 500LV 4.4 48 41 +7(R)
Rasmussen 10/22-23 988LV 3.0 50 46 +4(R)
CBS News 10/16-23 1316LV 5.0 46 42 +4(D)
WAFB/FOX 10/14-19 605LV 4.0 43 40 +4(D)
ANALYSIS: So what's going on here? Yes, there is a third candidate on the November 4 ballot (not shown above) and like Georgia, Louisiana's rules require the candidate with the most votes on November 4 to get above 50% in order to avoid another run-off vote on December 6 with the second place finisher. As you can see by the November 4 polls above, even though it appears likely that Mary Landrieu will come out on top on election day, it is highly unlikely that she will get above 50%. So a December 6 run-off seems like a virtual certainty. To add to Mary's problems, the third candidate in the November 4 race is another Republican, so when he/she is dropped off the December 6 ballot, few if any of his/her votes would go to Landrieu as evidence by the December 6 polls above. The only thing I question about the December 6 polls is whether pollsters simply asked people how they would vote if it were a two candidate race, or if they would actually turn out on December 6 and vote for the other Republican. This may call into question how many of those who voted for the eliminated Republican will show up and vote for the remaining Republican on December 6? Still the margin of Cassidy's lead in the December 6 polls is consistently large, so Mary probably has a significant uphill battle even with a likely better GOTV effort than the Republican Cassidy. That said, one thing is certain, this race further increases the chances that we won't know who controls the Senate on November 4.
PROJECTION: Cassidy (R); Senate 48D / 50R
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Brown(R) Shaheen(D)
ARG 10/27-29 600LV 4.0 49 49 0
WNUR/UNH 10/22-26 555LV 4.2 42 50 +8(D)
New England Coll. 10/24-24 1132LV 2.9 46 47 +1(R)
ARG 10/19-22 600LV 4.0 48 49 +1(D)
CNN 10/18-21 645LV 4.0 47 49 +2(D)
CBS News 10/16-23 1042LV 4.0 41 46 +5(D)
UMass 10/15-21 643LV 4.5 46 49 +3(D)
Suffolk 10/16-19 500LV 4.4 46 49 +3(D)
ANALYSIS: Remember what I said earlier about trends? Well there seems to be one in this race based on the above polls, and it doesn't appear to bod well for Shaheen. While I have trouble believing Brown is currently ahead in this race, there is no doubt that he has been gaining ground in recent weeks, making this an unexpectedly tighter race than predicted a few month's back. Still with a good GOTV effort it would seem that Shaheen can come out on top.
PROJECTION: Shaheen (D); Senate 49D / 50R
NORTH CAROLINA:
POLL DATES SAMPLE MOE CANDIDATES LEADER MARGIN
Tillis(R) Hagan(D)
Elon Univ. 10/21-25 687LV 3.7 41 45 +4(D)
Rasmussen 10/28-29 982LV 3.0 46 47 +1(D)
SUSA 10/21-25 802LV 3.5 44 44 0
NBC News 10/19-23 756LV 3.6 43 43 0
CBS News 10/16-23 1910LV 4.0 41 44 +3(D)
PPP (D) 10/16-18 780LV 3.5 44 47 +3(D)
Civitis (R) 10/15-18 600LV 4.0 44 44 0
ANALYSIS: Although this race is as tight as the rest, Hagan is either even or on the positive side of all the polls. Couple this polling with a great GOTV effort and Hagan should be able to come out on top.
PROJECTION: Hagan (D); Senate 50D / 50R
CLOSING SUMMARY:
First, as an avid reader of this Blog, I am aware there are other polls out there. However, I decided to use only those posted on RCP so I wouldn't get tempted into cherry picking polls more favorable to Dems. and avoiding those more favorable to Republicans. I also wanted to avoid having to dig deep into poll internals to confirm their legitimacy. For better or worse I am relying on RCP to weed out the less reliable polls. Admittedly this is saying that all the polls picked by RCP are reliable or that other polls are not reliable. I just had to decide on a set of polls, and this seemed the best way.
One thing I am pretty sure of after completing this research, is that we probably won't know who will control the Senate on November 4th. And I'm not just referring to the fact that polls in Alaska won't close until 1:00 am EST on November 5th. Its because all indications are that Georgia and/or Louisiana will end up in run-off elections on January 6 and December 6, respectively, since no candidate will likely have over 50% on November 4 as required, based on current polling. It is possible of course, that either party could have substantially swept the other Senate races rendering the outcome of the Georgia and/or Louisiana Senate races moot. But the polls which are tight in all 10 races don't support a sweep. So I'm willing to predict that we will have to wait until at least December 6, or possibly even until January 6 after the Senate is due to convene, to see who controls.
Lastly, my pick right now is a 50 / 50 split in the Senate body, assuming Orman caucuses with the Dems, with Joe Biden in his role as President of the Senate, giving the Dems. the majority needed for Senate control. I don't see a rosier picture right now. If anything, I feel I am opening myself up to criticism that my 50/50 forecast is too rosy, since in some races I am relying on GOTV to overcome small Republican leads in the polls. But it is what it is, as they say.
Please feel free to lend support or criticize!