Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) has seen her prospects for re-election take a slight, but potentially pivotal, dip.
For anyone with kids, that has done hard time in a Chuck E. Cheese or some similarly kid-themed restaurant burdened with a money-sinking arcade, the game "whack-a-mole" is probably quite familiar.
For Democrats, that has to feel like these last few days (and perhaps even weeks) on the polling front. Struggling with all their might to cling to 50 Senate seats (and with it, continued control of the chamber), it seems as if every time a poll drops brightening their hopes in a particular race, another one drops almost immediately thereafter which brings alarm elsewhere.
Such has been the most consistent theme in this, an election cycle of seemingly endless tossups and near-misses.
Over the past three days since our last Polling Wrap launched at Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections, we have seen in excess of one hundred polls (111, to be exact) cross our desks. A cherry-picker can have a field day, without a doubt, given this pool of data. But there is a consistent theme, which is one which must give both parties pause.
Typically, at least some of the close races get locked down once and for all in the final mile of the campaign. Based on the polling that has come out this week, that most certainly does not appear to be the case. Follow me past the jump to see all the data, and exactly what I mean by this game of "whack-a-mole" and how it complicates the picture for Tuesday.
AK-Sen (Moore Information): Dan Sullivan (R) 42, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 38
AK-Sen (Ivan Moore Research—D): Sen. Mark Begich (D) 50, Dan Sullivan (R) 42
AR-Sen (Rasmussen): Tom Cotton (R) 51, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 44
AR-Sen (Univ. of Arkansas): Tom Cotton (R) 49, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 36
CO-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 48, Cory Gardner (R) 48
CO-Sen (Quinnipiac): Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 39
CO-Sen (Strategies 360—D): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Cory Gardner (R) 44
CO-Sen (SurveyUSA): Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44
CO-Sen (Vox Populi—R): Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 43
GA-Sen (Landmark—R): Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 47
GA-Sen (Monmouth): David Perdue (R) 49, Michelle Nunn (D) 41
GA-Sen (Rasmussen): Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 47
GA-Sen (SurveyUSA): David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 45
HI-Sen (Merriman River Group): Sen. Brian Schatz (D) 55, Cam Cavasso (R) 29
IA-Sen (Garin Hart Yang—D): Bruce Braley (D) 47, Joni Ernst (R) 47
IA-Sen (Loras College): Bruce Braley (D) 45, Joni Ernst (R) 44
IA-Sen (Quinnipiac): Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 45
IL-Sen (McKeon and Associates—R): Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 49, Jim Oberweis (R) 39
KS-Sen (SurveyUSA): Greg Orman (I) 44, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 42
KY-Sen (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 50, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43
KY-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 48, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43
LA-Sen-General (Univ. of New Orleans): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 38, Bill Cassidy (R) 33, Rob Maness (R) 7
LA-Sen-General (Rasmussen): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 43, Bill Cassidy (R) 36, Rob Maness (R) 13
LA-Sen-Runoff (Univ. of New Orleans): Bill Cassidy (R) 51, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 43
LA-Sen-Runoff (Rasmussen): Bill Cassidy (R) 50, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 46
MA-Sen (MassINC): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 57, Brian Herr (R) 32
ME-Sen (Ipsos): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 64, Shenna Bellows (D) 32
ME-Sen (Pan Atlantic SMS): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 67, Shenna Bellows (D) 27
MI-Sen (EPIC-MRA): Gary Peters (D) 50, Terri Land (R) 35
MI-Sen (Mitchell Research): Gary Peters (D) 52, Terri Land (R) 38
MI-Sen (Glengariff Group): Gary Peters (D) 48, Terri Land (R) 33
MT-Sen (Gravis—R): Steve Daines (R) 53, Amanda Curtis (D) 39
NC-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 47, Thom Tillis (R) 46
NC-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 47, Thom Tillis (R) 46
NC-Sen (Vox Populi—R): Thom Tillis (R) 48, Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 43
NC-Sen (Elon Univ.): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 41
NC-Sen (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 44
NH-Sen (ARG): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49, Scott Brown (R) 49
NH-Sen (Univ. of New Hampshire): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 42
NH-Sen (Vox Populi—R): Scott Brown (R) 49, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 45
OR-Sen (Elway Research): Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) 49, Monica Wehby (R) 30
SD-Sen (Rasmussen): Mike Rounds (R) 45, Rick Weiland (D) 31, Larry Pressler (I) 20
SD-Sen (Monmouth): Mike Rounds (R) 45, Rick Weiland (D) 31, Larry Pressler (I) 19
SD-Sen (Mason Dixon): Mike Rounds (R) 43, Rick Weiland (D) 32, Larry Pressler (I) 19
VA-Sen (Roanoke College): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 45, Ed Gillespie (R) 32
AR-Gov (Rasmussen): Asa Hutchinson (R) 50, Mike Ross (D) 43
AR-Gov (Univ. of Arkansas): Asa Hutchinson (R) 50, Mike Ross (D) 39
CA-Gov (Field Poll): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 54, Neel Kashkari (R) 33
CO-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Bob Beauprez (R) 46
CO-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 47, Bob Beauprez (R) 47
CO-Gov (Vox Populi—R): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 49, Bob Beauprez (R) 44
CO-Gov (Quinnipiac): Bob Beauprez (R) 45, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 40
CO-Gov (Strategies 360—D): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Bob Beauprez (R) 43
CO-Gov (Rasmussen): Bob Beauprez (R) 49, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 47
CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 43, Tom Foley (R) 43
FL-Gov (Cherry Communications—R): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 44, Charlie Crist (D) 39
FL-Gov (Univ. of Florida): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 36, Charlie Crist (D) 36
FL-Gov (SEA Polling—D): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 45, Charlie Crist (D) 43
FL-Gov (Quinnipiac): Charlie Crist (D) 43, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40
FL-Gov (Øptimus—R): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 42, Charlie Crist (D) 39
GA-Gov (Landmark—R): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 48, Jason Carter (D) 46
GA-Gov (Monmouth): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 48, Jason Carter (D) 42
GA-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 49, Jason Carter (D) 43
GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 46, Jason Carter (D) 44
IA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 56, Jack Hatch (D) 37
IA-Gov (Loras College): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 55, Jack Hatch (D) 34
IL-Gov (McKeon and Associates—R): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 45, Bruce Rauner (R) 42
KS-Gov (SurveyUSA): Paul Davis (D) 46, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 43
MA-Gov (Emerson College): Charlie Baker (R) 48, Martha Coakley (D) 42
MA-Gov (Suffolk): Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 43
MA-Gov (MassINC): Charlie Baker (R) 43, Martha Coakley (D) 42
MA-Gov (Social Sphere/Boston Globe): Charlie Baker (R) 44, Martha Coakley (D) 37
MA-Gov (Univ. of Mass-Lowell): Charlie Baker (R) 45, Martha Coakley (D) 41
MD-Gov (WPA Opinion Research—R): Larry Hogan (R) 44, Anthony Brown (D) 39
ME-Gov (Ipsos): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 42, Mike Michaud (D) 42, Eliot Cutler (I) 13
ME-Gov (Pan Atlantic SMS): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 40, Mike Michaud (D) 40, Eliot Cutler (I) 13
MI-Gov (EPIC-MRA): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 45, Mark Schauer (D) 43
MI-Gov (Mitchell Research): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 48, Mark Schauer (D) 43
NH-Gov (ARG): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 48, Walt Havenstein (R) 46
NH-Gov (Univ. of New Hampshire): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 52, Walt Havenstein (R) 37
NY-Gov (Marist): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 56, Rob Astorino (R) 30, Howie Hawkins (G) 6
OR-Gov (Elway Research): Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 45, Dennis Richardson (R) 38
PA-Gov (Franklin and Marshall): Tom Wolf (D) 53, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 40
PA-Gov (Harper Polling—R): Tom Wolf (D) 50, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 40
RI-Gov (Brown Univ.): Gina Raimondo (D) 39, Allan Fung (R) 38, Robert Healey (I) 12
SD-Gov (Monmouth): Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) 68, Susan Wismer (D) 29
SD-Gov (Mason Dixon): Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) 62, Susan Wismer (D) 26
WI-Gov (Marquette): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Mary Burke (D) 43
AK-AL (Ivan Moore Research—D): Forrest Dunbar (D) 46, Rep. Don Young (R) 41
HI-01 (Merriman River Group): Charles Djou (R) 45, Mark Takai (D) 45
HI-02 (Merriman River Group): Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) 69, Kawika Crowley (R) 19
KS-01 (Jayhawk Consulting—D): Jim Sherow (D) 45, Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R) 38
MA-06 (Emerson College): Richard Tisei (R) 42, Seth Moulton (D) 40
MA-06 (Øptimus—R): Richard Tisei (R) 38, Seth Moulton (D) 36
MA-09 (Emerson College): Rep. Bill Keating (D) 46, John Chapman (R) 41
ME-01 (Pan Atlantic SMS): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 62, Isaac Misiuk (R) 18
ME-02 (Pan Atlantic SMS): Emily Cain (D) 39, Bruce Poliquin (R) 38
MI-06 (Hamilton Campaigns—D): Rep. Fred Upton (R) 47, Paul Clements (D) 43
MT-AL (Gravis—R): Ryan Zinke (R) 53, John Lewis (D) 41
NE-02 (DFM Research—D): Brad Ashford (D) 46, Rep. Lee Terry (R) 41
NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 53, Marilinda Garcia (R) 30
NJ-02 (Stockton College): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 53, Bill Hughes (D) 34
NJ-03 (Stockton College): Tom MacArthur (R) 46, Aimee Belgard (D) 41
NJ-05 (Monmouth): Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 53, Roy Cho (D) 42
NY-19 (Siena): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) 58, Sean Eldridge (D) 35
NY-21 (Harper Polling—R): Elise Stefanik (R) 47, Aaron Woolf (D) 33, Matt Funiciello (G) 14
NY-24 (Siena): John Katko (R) 52, Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 42
NY-24 (Global Strategy Group—D): Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 45, John Katko (R) 40
SD-AL (Monmouth): Rep. Kristi Noem (R) 61, Corinna Robinson (D) 34
SD-AL (SurveyUSA): Rep. Kristi Noem (R) 55, Corinna Robinson (D) 39
UT-04 (Dan Jones): Mia Love (R) 48, Doug Owens (D) 43
Easily the most tired phrase in the final week of a campaign is the word "momentum." Far too often, and often by people who should know better, we see that word bandied about upon receipt of a poll that deviates a little from the "expected."
The problem is, if you rely on a single poll to indicate the prevailing trend, it is an invitation to error. As we cautioned a few weeks ago, only a fool or a cheerleader latches onto a single poll as a cause for alarm or exultation.
For one thing, polls in any cycle (but, at least it seems, especially in this cycle) are going to bounce all over the map. It doesn't hurt that the polling team UNH, which bounces around with the approximate frequency of Tigger from the Winnie the Pooh series, is prolific in New Hampshire, but ... man ... anyone want to try to take the pulse in that freaking state based off a single poll?
For another thing, a week is a lifetime at the end of the cycle. Remember when Alaska Sen. Mark Begich was politically-dead senator walking, but folks in the know were speculating that Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn might win without a runoff?
Yeah, that was around ten days ago.
So, to justify the "whack-a-mole" theme alluded to above, let's take a longer view. It is breathtakingly uncomplicated, but let's just take a simple average of the last five polls released and compare them to the five polls that came immediately before that. We'll call it the "last five/previous five" data.
Last Five/Previous Five Comparison—Key U.S. Senate Races
Alaska: "Last Five": Begich +1.8; "Previous Five": Sullivan +3.6
Arkansas: "Last Five": Cotton +5.2; "Previous Five": Cotton +3.8
Colorado: "Last Five": Gardner +2.2; "Previous Five": Gardner +0.8
Georgia: "Last Five": Perdue +2.2; "Previous Five": Tied
Iowa: "Last Five": Ernst +1.2; "Previous Five": Ernst +1.4
Kansas: "Last Five": Orman +1.2; "Previous Five": Orman +0.8
Kentucky: "Last Five": McConnell +5.4; "Previous Five": McConnell +3.2
Louisiana (Runoff): "Last Five": Cassidy +5.2; "Previous Five": Cassidy +4.6
Michigan: "Last Five": Peters +12.2; "Previous Five": Peters +12.8
N. Carolina: "Last Five": Hagan +0.2; "Previous Five": Hagan +0.8
N. Hampshire: "Last Five": Shaheen +1.8; "Previous Five": Shaheen +1.8
S. Dakota: "Last Five": Rounds +12.4; "Previous Five": Rounds +11.2
For weeks, if not months, control of the Senate seemed to hinge on several Democratic seats in varying degrees of peril, along with a couple of longshot pickup opportunities.
But what this analysis shows us is two things. One, the changes, when smoothed out a bit by taking in multiple polls, have been pretty subtle. In these dozen competitive or semi-competitive races (though Michigan and South Dakota look to be straining to be called "competitive"), only three of them have seen a "last five/previous five" shift of more than two points. Two of those have worked in the favor of the GOP (Georgia and Kentucky), while one has gone in the Democrats' favor (Alaska). Across the board, eight races have moved towards the Republicans, and three have moved away from them. But with a grand total of six of them moving less than a point, to say that the "momentum" has been fairly stable in these races is fair.
What has changed, if one looks at the races a bit more subjectively, is that the races that each side "feels good about" has definitely changed. For example, two weeks ago, Democrats had more or less chalked off Alaska, but felt encouraged by Georgia and Kentucky. This week, it is exactly the opposite. Meanwhile, as Iowa seems to be edging back towards being "all square", even the most ardent Democratic supporter has to acknowledge that Arkansas is looking bleaker by the passing day.
And therein lies the "whack-a-mole" analogy. No sooner does it appear that Democrats can breathe incrementally easier about a perilous seat (like New Hampshire, for example, where Jeanne Shaheen is far from out of the woods, but no longer appears to be bleeding support) than they have to be nervous about another seat (the movement in North Carolina has been subtle, but we must remember it was only about a month ago that Kay Hagan had a quite stubborn, if modest, lead of 3-5 points).
And with the Democrats almost uniformly playing defense, they are going to need to win the vast majority of the close ones. So, at this late stage of the game, they'd like a bit more uniform wind at their backs, in order to nail down their narrow leads and reverse their narrow deficits. There is still a bit of time left, but that hasn't really happened yet. They've locked down, say, Michigan, but the one-time narrow window to make South Dakota a miracle pickup seems to have passed, and the odds of one of their other wish-list pickups (Kentucky) seems to be growing weaker.
All of this, as it happens, should be cause for Democratic concern, but should not be (in any way, shape, or form) cause for Democratic panic. Looking at the "last five/previous five" data tells us two things: (1) the Republicans are leading in enough races to win the Senate, and (2) the margins are, by and large, really freaking close. Some on the left, as a coping mechanism, have cling to one statistic: the tendency over the past few cycles for Democratic performance to be underestimated by polls. And while that has been generally true, it has not been true in all states, nor is past incidence any guarantee that the polling community has it wrong again this year.
If they do however, it will be the third cycle in a row in which that was the case, which may be a legitimate cause for post-election reflection in the polling community.