Cross posted at RRH.
So pretty simple, these are my predictions for the competitive 2014 Senate and Governor races as well as my final net gains or losses for each party.
I will not cover House races as I have not watched those nearly as closely as Senate and Governor races, but I will say I expect the GOP to net between 5-10 seats in the House on Tuesday. I would not be shocked anything outside of this margin, but thats where I think it is most likely to land. I'll go GOP +8 if forced to pick a single number gain.
One note, I do not believe in toss ups, this late I will pick a winner. The close races will be in the Tilt sections.
And now for the Senate and Governorships...
US Senate Races
Likely D
MI: Peters wins 55-42-3%
MN: Franken wins 54-43-3%
NM: Udall wins 54-45-1%
OR: Merkley wins 56-40-4%
VA: Warner wins 54-43-3%
Lean D
No races applicable
Tilt "D"
KS - Orman wins 49-48-3%*
NC - Hagan wins 50-48-2%
NH - Shaheen wins 51-49%
Tilt R
AK - Sullivan wins 49-47-4%*
CO - Gardner wins 49-48-3%*
GA - Perdue "wins" 48-47-5%, wins runoff 53-47%
IA - Ernst wins 49-48-3%*
LA - Landrieu "wins" 45-38-14-3%, loses runoff 52-48%
Lean R
AR - Cotton wins 52-46-2%
KY - McConnell wins 52-47-1%
Likely R
SD - Rounds wins 45-34-20-1%
Safe R
MT - Daines wins 58-41-1%
WV - Capito wins 56-42-2%
Overall change - Republicans +7 net, takeover US Senate. Most likely will end up at +8 as I can't imagine Orman going into the minority unless McConnell just won't take him.
Governor Races
Likely D
MN - Dayton wins 52-42-6%
OR - Kitzhaber wins 51-42-7%
PA - Wolf wins 55-44-1%
Lean D
HI - Ige wins 48-36-12-4%
NH - Hassan wins 53-46-1%
Tilt "D"
AK - Walker wins 49-46-5%*
CO - Hickenlooper wins 49-48-3%
CT - Malloy wins 49-48-3%
FL - Crist wins 48-48-4%*
IL - Quinn wins 48-47-5%
KS - Davis wins 49-47-4%*
ME - Michaud wins 47-43-10%*
MD - Brown wins 53-46-1%
RI - Raimondo wins 45-40-10-5%
Tilt R
AR - Hutchinson wins 53-46-1%
GA - Deal "wins" 49-46-5%, wins runoff 55-45%
MA - Baker wins 48-46-6%
MI - Snyder wins 51-48-1%
WI - Walker wins 50-49-1%
Lean R
AZ - Ducey wins 55-43-2%
Likely R
NM - Martinez wins 56-42-2%
SC - Haley wins 55-42-3%
TX - Abbott wins 56-41-3%
Overall change - Democrats net +3 if you count Walker towards the Democrats and seeing as how the state party is, I am as well.
* = flips in party control
So final net changes are...
Senate: +7 Republicans
House: +8 Republicans
Governorships: +3 Democrats
5:38 PM PT: Updated tags.