Points below the diagonal line show polling averages that were too friendly to Democrats.
Leading Off:
• Polltopia: A few days ago, we wrote a post about how the polls can be wrong. In that we post, we showed how over the past ten years, polls have more often than not overestimated Republican performance. And we warned that we usually see the polls underestimate Republicans in conservative states, and we had a lot of close elections in conservative states.
And yeah, we did have some polling errors. As the chart of competitive races above shows, they were errors like nothing we've seen in the past ten years. And almost all erring on the same side of the partisan divide.
When circles are below the diagonal line, the average of the margins of polls overestimated Democratic performance. That is, Democrats did worse in the election than the polls said they would. For instance, Pryor lost in Arkansas by about 17 points. Even Rasmussen only had him down 7 points. The polling average was off by almost 13 points in total.
Of all the circles on the graph above, only four are above the diagonal line—and those only slightly. The rest vary from below the line to way below the line. But why? Failure of Democratic voters to turn out? Pollster overcompensating for 2012 errors? Horribly reduced response rates? Hopefully we'll find out as pollsters dig into their data in depth—and they'd better start digging hard.
Late Calls:
On Wednesday the following races were called in favor of the Democrats: CO-Gov, CT-Gov, AZ-01, CA-03, CA-24, CA-36, NE-02, and NY-18. Brad Ashford's victory in Nebraska's 2nd District gives his party a rare pickup this year, and makes Republican Lee Terry one of the very few Republican incumbents to get tossed. In the Republican vs. Republican contest in CA-25, the contest was called for state Sen. Steve Knight, who bested the better funded Tony Strickland.
Uncalled Races:
We have several contests that have not been called for one party or the other as of Wednesday evening. You can check who has won each key race at our race tracker here, and you can also keep an eye on our continuously updated list of uncalled races. (We're relying on CNN's election results page for calls.)
• AK-Sen: There are still votes to be counted, but Republican Dan Sullivan's 8,149 vote lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Begich looks tough to reverse. In 2008 Begich was
down 3,300 votes on Election Night but ended up winning by 3,953 in the end. Even if Begich has built up a stronger lead in the votes that haven't been counted, the math this time around looks incredibly daunting.
• VA-Sen: It looks like Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has pulled off a shockingly narrow win, but a win nonetheless. Warner currently holds a 17,000 vote lead and there don't appear to be enough votes out there for Republican Ed Gillespie for him to reverse this. Gillespie has not yet conceded but Warner's team sounds confident. Barring a major tabulation error, it's hard to see this lead being reversed.
• AK-Gov: Independent Bill Walker currently holds a 3,165 vote lead over Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. It's more plausible that Parnell can reverse this deficit than Begich can, but he doesn't have much room for error. We'll have a better idea where this stands soon enough.
• VT-Gov: Very few people were expecting a tight race, but that's just what we got. Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin won a narrow 46-45 plurality over his unheralded opponent Scott Milne, but the race isn't quite over. Under Vermont law the state legislature chooses the governor if no one gets a majority. The Democrats run the show in Montpellier and there's no real question they'll pick Shumlin, as they did in 2010 when he pulled off another plurality. This law is really just a formality in any case: The last time the legislature chose the candidate who didn't win the most votes was 1853.
• AZ-02: With all precincts in, Democratic Rep. Ron Barber trails Republican Martha McSally by 1,293 votes. If this sounds familiar it should: Barber narrowly trailed McSally on Election Night in 2012 as well. Barber ended up pulling out a narrow win last time and he may repeat the feat. There are reportedly 37,300 ballots left to be counted in the district, and 34,000 come from Barber-friendly Pima County. For Barber to pull ahead he'll need to take the remaining ballots by about 4 points. In 2012 these ballots broke for Barber enough to put him over the top, and it's quite possible this could happen again. Still, in a race this tight, neither candidate has much room for error.
• CA-07: Republican Doug Ose currently holds a 51-49 lead over Democratic incumbent Ami Bera, which translates to 3,011 votes. There are about 70,000 votes left, and Bera would need to win them by about 52.5-47.5 to pull ahead. This may be doable: Bera won the late-counted ballots with 54.7 percent in 2012, albeit in a much better climate. California Democrats almost always do disproportionately better among these late ballots so Bera should have room to grow, but this could go either way.
• CA-09: This was another shockingly tight race, but it should stay in the blue column. Rep. Jerry McNerney holds a 52-48 lead over Republican Tony Amador, but as long as the votes are as Democratic-leaning as expected, he'll be fine.
• CA-16: It's deja vu all over again for Democratic Rep. Jim Costa. He currently trails his Some Dude Republican foe Johnny Tacherra by 736 votes in another race that was seen as safe for Team Blue. In 2010 Costa held a 1,823 deficit on Election Night but the remaining ballots allowed him to win by 3,050 when all was said and done. It's likely a similar thing will happen this time around.
• CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda currently holds a 52-48 lead over fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, which is about 3,550 votes. The same party nature of this contest makes things a bit more unpredictable but Honda's lead should hold. His base is made up of more Democratic-leaning voters while Khanna has been appealing more to moderates and conservatives, though he does have his share of Democratic backers. With more Democratic mail-in votes likely still out Honda should gain, and since he already has the lead that puts him in a good position.
• CA-26: Rep. Julia Brownley currently holds a 530 lead over Republican Jeff Gorrell, and as long as mail-in votes favor Democrats like they have in the past, she'll win in the end.
• CA-31: Democrat Pete Aguilar holds a 51-49 lead over Republican Paul Chabot. This was closer than expected but this is another race where a Democratic Election Night lead means a Democratic victory as long as mail-in ballots look anywhere near as blue as they have in the past. Aguilar has declared victory and while Chabot hasn't conceded, the writing's on the wall.
• CA-52: Rep. Scott Peters trails by about 700 votes against Republican Carl DeMaio with all precincts reporting, but he has been down this road before. In 2012, he led then-Rep. Brian Bilbray by less than 700 votes the morning after the election. But once all provisional ballots were counted, his lead had grown ten-fold to 7,000 votes (a margin of 2.4 percentage points). About 10,000 ballots are reportedly left, so Peters would have to win them by about 7 percentage points to take a lead.
• MD-06: Here's another surprisingly close race that should stay blue. With all precincts tallied, Democratic Rep. John Delaney holds a 50-48 lead over Republican Daniel Bongino. There are 5,847 absentee votes out and the state will start counting them Thursday. For Bongino to overcome Delaney's 2,166 vote lead he'd need to win the absentees by about 68.5 to 31.5, which doesn't seem likely.
• NY-25: In yet again unexpectedly tight race (I'm running out of ways to phrase that), Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter holds a 582 vote lead over Mark Assini. There are a few thousand absentees to be counted and the process could take a while. These ballots may not help Slaughter: In 2010 neighboring Democrat Dan Maffei held a small lead of Election Night but lost in the end.
• WA-04: In the GOP vs. GOP general, Dan Newhouse currently holds a 52-48 lead over Clint Didier. There are plenty of ballots left so this could take awhile, but it looks like Newhouse is in a good spot.
Senate:
• ME-Sen, WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin and Angus King don't have much in common, but they are both sticking with the Democrats. In a classically self-aggrandizing press conference on Wednesday, King, an independent from Maine, announced that he'd continue to caucus with the Democratic Party, despite the GOP winning a majority in the Senate on Tuesday night. A spokesman for Manchin, meanwhile, simply said his boss is "a proud West Virginia Democrat and will remain one." Manchin could, however, try running for governor in 2016, a job he held before joining the Senate in 2010.
Other Races:
• Attorneys General: Thirty-one attorney general offices were up on Tuesday and unsurprisingly, the GOP had a very good night. Team Red picked up Arkansas and Nevada, and denied Democrats victories in targeted seats. Hector Balderas' win in New Mexico was a rare bright spot for Democrats: Balderas, the outgoing state auditor and a 2012 Senate candidate, defeated Susan Riedel 58-42 in an unpredictable race. Balderas is a likely candidate for higher office and his party is happy to see him prevail.
The biggest Democratic setback is almost certainly in Nevada. Secretary of State Ross Miller, a likely candidate for governor in 2018, spent most of the cycle as the clear favorite. However, awful Democratic turnout gave Republican Adam Laxalt a narrow victory. Yes, that same Adam Laxalt whose supervisor described him as a "train wreck" only two years before. The entire night was terrible for the Democratic bench in the Silver State, and it sets the party back for 2018, when the governorship will be open and Republican Sen. Dean Heller will be up for re-election.
• Secretaries of State: Democrats also had a rough night in the contests for chief election officer. The GOP picked up Nevada, and Democrats lost in key races in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio. Team Blue held on in California, Connecticut, and Minnesota, but it was uncomfortably close.
• State Legislatures: On Tuesday, most state legislative chambers were up. Unsurprisingly, the GOP made real gains almost everywhere. However, there were a few key Democratic victories, some quite surprising.
What follows is a look at what changed (or didn't change) in key states. Not every state that held elections is included. For instance, in Ohio the GOP was expected to keep wide margins in the legislature and they did: The status quo is pretty much exactly the same as it was on Monday. However, there were plenty of notable races across the country. You can find more information about what happened in each state from Stateside Associates chart, which is continuously being updated. The national Conference of State Legislatures also has an interactive map of each state.
• Arkansas: Republicans took a majority in the state House in 2012, their first since Reconstruction. Democrats hoped that they could reverse the GOP's small 51-48 edge but in a brutal year like this it wasn't going to happen. The Republicans now have a 64-36 majority and given how red the state has become, they're likely to keep it for a long time to come. The state Senate was already safely GOP and with Asa Hutchinson winning the gubernatorial race, Republicans will control the entire state government for the first time since the 19th Century.
• California: There was never any danger that Democrats would lose the state Assembly or Senate, but they were hoping that they could maintain their two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers. The supermajority allows Democrats to raise taxes and place constitutional amendments on the ballot without any Republican votes, and Team Red wanted to win to prove that they were still viable in the Golden State. The GOP definitely broke through in the Senate, leaving Democrats one seat away from what they wanted.
The Assembly is more unpredictable. Currently two Democrats narrowly trail, and their party needs both Tim Sbranti in AD-16 and Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi to pull ahead to keep two-thirds. Mail-in ballots need to be counted in both and they've usually broken for Democrats; it may be a while before we know who won both seats.
• Colorado: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper narrowly won a second term, but his party suffered in the legislature. As of Wednesday evening control of both the House and Senate is in doubt, and several races need to be resolved. Democrats were able to retake the two state Senate seats they lost in the 2013 recalls, but it looks more likely than not that the chamber will flip to the GOP.
• Illinois: Bruce Rauner took the governorship for the Republicans but in a surprise, Democrats look like they'll keep their three-fifths supermajorities. The Senate wasn't in much danger but Democrats couldn't afford to lose a single seat in the House. There is plenty of uncertainty though: At the moment two Democrats are only ahead by a few hundred votes and a third leads by just 12 ballots. Team Blue cannot afford to lose any of these if it wants to be able to override Rauner's vetoes.
• Iowa: In an otherwise horrible night, Hawkeye State Democrats scored one key victory. The state Senate will retain a 26 to 24 Democratic majority, preventing Republicans from having full control of the government. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad was hoping his landslide win would flip the chamber and give him the chance to fully implement his agenda, but that won't be happening this time. Democrats weren't so lucky in the House, with the GOP making gains in a chamber Team Blue was hoping to retake.
• Kentucky: Republicans hoped that this would be the year that they finally won the state House for the first time since 1921, but they once again fell short. Democrats maintained the 54 to 46 edge they started with, despite Sen. Rand Paul spending big to try and flip the chamber.
Paul wasn't motivated just by party loyalty though. State law forbids someone from running for two offices at once, and Paul wants to be able to seek re-election as he runs for president in 2016. The GOP state Senate was on board and a Republican House would have been able to pass the new law over Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear's veto (it only takes a simple majority to override gubernatorial vetoes). However, the Democratic House has shown zero interest in helping Paul, and they certainly won't be aiding him now.
• Maine: Republican Gov. Paul LePage won re-election but he won't have full control of the government. The Republicans flipped the state Senate but the House remains blue. Given LePage's poor relationship with state Democrats, we can expect some more fireworks.
• Maryland: Republican Larry Hogan won a surprisingly easy victory, and his party made gains in both chambers. However, Democrats still hold the three-fifths supermajorities they need to override his vetoes.
• Massachusetts: While Republican Charlie Baker flipped the governorship, there was never any doubt that Democrats would keep their massive legislative majorities intact.
• Michigan: Democrats had some hope that they could retake the state House after four years of GOP control, but they lost ground instead.
• Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton won another term, but his party lost the House. This isn't too surprising since the district lines definitely favor the GOP: The median seat only narrowly voted for Obama even as the president was easily carrying the state. The GOP will hold at least 71 of the 134 seats, but it's likely Democrats will target it again in 2016. The Democratic state Senate was not up this time.
• Missouri: The GOP turned their already strong House majority into a supermajority: To add insult to injury, a Democratic representative switched parties on Wednesday. The Republicans already had a Senate supermajority and they can now override Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon's vetoes without much trouble.
• Nevada: This was probably the greatest catastrophe for Democrats in any chamber. Not surprisingly the Republicans took the one seat they needed to flip the state Senate, giving them a 11-10 edge. However, until recently the Assembly was seen as safely Democratic, but weak turnout gave Team Red an opening. Now the GOP holds a 27-15 majority there, reversing the 27-15 edge the Democrats won in 2012. For the first time since 1929, the GOP will have complete control of the state government.
• New Hampshire: New Hampshire's 400-person House tends to swing wildly in election years, and 2014 was no different. The GOP is back in charge there, which could mean the return of conservative former Speaker Bill O’Brien. The good news for Democrats like re-elected Gov. Maggie Hassan is that this chamber could easily shift back in two years. The state Senate will remain red.
• New Mexico: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez won re-election in a landslide and helped his party take their first House majority since the 1950s. The GOP's four-seat edge is small and they'll need to defend it two years from now. The Democratic Senate was not up this year.
• New York: After two years of sharing power with a renegade group of Democrats known as the "Independent Democratic Conference," state Senate Republicans retook a small outright majority. The state Assembly will keep its Democratic supermajority to no one's surprise.
• Oregon: The state Senate was one of the few chambers where Democrats could expand their majority and expand it they did. Team Blue picked up at least one seat, giving them a little more breathing room than the small 16-14 edge they started with. The House and governorship remained blue.
• Pennsylvania: Democrats hoped that Republican Gov. Tom Corbett's looming defeat would give them a chance to take the Senate and make gains in the House. However, while Tom Wolf will be the commonwealth's next governor, he'll still need to work with a GOP legislature: His party lost ground in both chambers.
• Washington: The GOP and two rouge Democrats have been running the Senate, and that won't change this time. The GOP took 25 of the 49 seats, and nominal Democrat Tim Sheldon won another term (his ally Rodney Tom retired and was replaced by an actual Democrat). Team Blue lost ground in the House but will keep the chamber.
• West Virginia: The Democrat's 53-47 House majority has been living on borrowed time, and they finally lost control Tuesday. The GOP took at least 17 seats, far more than they needed to take their first majority since 1931. The GOP also took an 18-16 majority in the Senate, flipping what was a 24-10 Democratic supermajority with the help of a party switcher. It only takes a simple majority to override Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's veto, and this year's sweep gives the GOP more power than they've had in the state for generations.
• Wisconsin: Democrats had some vague hopes that they could retake the state Senate but this was not their year. The GOP netted a seat, and now has a 19-14 edge. The GOP's hold over the Assembly was never in doubt. With Republican Gov. Scott Walker winning re-election, the GOP will keep control of the state government.
Grab Bag:
• Maps: Bad as Tuesday night was, we'll always have this:
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty