Like many, I was wrong about a lot of the results in the big 2014 Senate races. I think I was more misled by the polls than wrong, but that's another matter. Here is my quick take on why this election was essentially an unmitigated disaster:
1. Bill Maher was right - Democrats didn't even bother to run on a great record of accomplishment. All the hard work that President Obama and the Democrats have done over the years paid off in years 5 and 6 and yet no one wanted to talk about it. Give the same record to the GOP to market and they would've made it seem like Obama should've been on Mt. Rushmore.
2. Narrative/Salesmanship matter more - We had no narrative. The GOP's anti-Obama narrative was crappy, but it worked better than our non-narrative did. In today's politics, with the GOP having stymied federal legislation and states taking up these measures directly on ballots, we need to work harder to offer people something that they can't do or envision themselves. We have to constantly sell and re-sell change. We haven't done that.
3. The GOP Successfully Racialized the Election - Say what you want, but race was a huge factor in how this turned out. Ask Mary Landrieu. The GOPers ran on no coherent agenda, but they were coherent about their dislike of Barack Obama. There is a perverse and visceral rejection of Obama and anything he touches even though he has been clearly successful on any reasonable metric. Race adds that visceral touch that motivates people to come out to vote and the GOP used it much as they always have. Obama and the Democrats got 'Gored' in this election.
4. Turnout metrics - Dems need to set the bar high to Presidential level turnout to offset the ever more radicalized GOP base. We make a mistake by using mid-term metrics as a baseline. In Colorado, there were 2.6 million or so votes cast for President in 2012. In 2014, that number is around 1.6 million or roughly 1 million fewer votes. In Iowa, the difference is about 500,000 votes cast. In VA, 4 million votes were cast in 2012. About half that have been cast in this year's Senate election.