The iconic Boeing 747 Jumbo Jet has been flying commercially for 44 years. The less romanticized, but even larger, Airbus A380 entered service just 7 years ago. But are these behemoths of the skies endangered species?
But First, A Word From Our Sponsor:
Top Comments recognizes the previous day's Top Mojo and strives to promote each day's outstanding comments through nominations made by Kossacks like you. Please send comments (before 9:30pm ET) by email to topcomments@gmail.com or by our KosMail message board. Just click on the Spinning Top™ to make a submission. Look for the Spinning Top™ to pop up in diaries posts around Daily Kos.
Make sure that you include the direct link to the comment (the URL), which is available by clicking on that comment's date/time. Please let us know your Daily Kos user name if you use email so we can credit you properly. If you send a writeup with the link, we can include that as well. The diarist reserves the right to edit all content.
|
Airplanes come and go, but orange croissants are forever. We use the same preservatives as found in Hostess Twinkies. Yum! Please enjoy one while they are still in production.
2014 is almost over, and both Boeing and Airbus report zero net new orders for the 747 and A380 airliners this year, according to Flight Club.
Both are big four-engine jets, and have been produced in various models to suit the needs of carriers of both passengers and cargo. The 747 in particular has had numerous technological and size upgrades over the decades. Final assembly of all 1,500 or so 747s built to date (as well as 767, 777, and 787) takes place in Boeing's plant at Everett, Washington, the world's largest building by volume. Airbus assembles the A380 at their giant assembly hall in Toulouse, France, which is only the world's third largest building.
(Trivia: in between these two buildings, the #2 spot for size by enclosed volume is the Target import warehouse, in Lacey, Washington).
The 747 may now be on the ropes. Boeing has cut back production three times in the last two years. They are now producing only 16 of these per year, and with the current backlog of orders on the books, the end of the line would be reached in 3 years if no new orders materialize. There have even been two 747 freighters recently built, but sitting idle as there are no buyers.
Air Force One, another icon of the skies, is not just one but two virtually identical 747s. More specifically, they are VC-25s, a highly customized variation of the 747-200. There are varying reports as to the remaining lifespan of these airplanes, which are now 24 years old. Depending on what you read, they may be scheduled to be replaced anywhere from 2017 to 2021. If Boeing shuts down the assembly line in the meantime, that may present a bit of a problem. That may be why the Air Force is considering retiring the VC-25s sooner rather than later.
Of course, the Air Force One replacement planes wouldn't necessarily have to be 747s. The next generation of the 777 will be only modestly smaller, but should have the capability to serve. The White House and Air Force have to decide if a twin-engine aircraft such as the 777-9X will suit their needs. If they insist on a four-engine aircraft, then the 747-8 would be the only practical candidate. Airbus has already bowed out of the running to replace Air Force One, saying that it wouldn't be cost-effective for them.
BTW, Air Force One technically doesn't refer to a specific airplane. Whichever plane the President is flying in, operated by the U.S. Air Force, is designated as Air Force One for that flight.
Meanwhile, the A380 has its own problems. With no new orders on the books this year, and tough competition from more fuel-efficient twin-engine jets, Airbus may be poised to end production by 2018 if things don't change.
The market for these jumbos is pretty much saturated. Any airline (or freight carrier, for that matter) that wants some, probably already has them. The possible exception is Emirates airways, based in Dubai. Emirates currently operates 55 A380s, and has 85 more on order. That's enough to keep the assembly line running for the next three years or so, but it seems that other airlines around the world have severely cut back their future orders. Perhaps development and production aren't economical to continue for the benefit of one airline alone.
Meanwhile Emirates continues to push Airbus to produce another variation, the A380neo (New Engine Option). Also under consideration is the A380-900 which, if built, could hold 900 passengers in an all-economy configuration. That drops to 650 passengers if configured for multiple classes: economy, business, and first. Either way, that's a lot of people in one tube. Now I don't mean to be morbid, but if one of these things crashed at the cost of all those lives, the question would be inevitable: is it just too damn big?
Flight Club concludes:
While Airbus seems hopeful for the future by proposing improvements, Boeing seems to be writing the eulogy for the 747. But a hypothetical airplane is simply that. Airbus spent $25 billion developing the A380, and has only delivered 168 of the planes. Even if the 747 line shuts down first, the A380 has a lot of ground to cover before matching the success of the 747.
TOP COMMENTS
December 16, 2014
Thanks to tonight's Top Comments contributors! Let us hear from YOU
when you find that proficient comment.
From divineorder:
In joe shikspack's diary "The Evening Blues - 12-15-14", Don midwest asks about the man who threw the shoe at GWB.
From your diarist lotac:
In occams hatchet's diary "Adieu, Monsieur Colbert: remembering his finest hour", the role of Condi Rice is played this evening by Gooserock, musing about a political comedian flying into a President.
Flagged by Yellow Canary:
In the same diary as immediately above, strobusguy nominates Colbert for a Nobel Prize for Comedy.
|