This is speculation but, well, I'm not wrong, Walter.
The Interview
Many media outlets reported today that U.S. officials have determined that the perpetrators of the Cyber attacks on Sony were acting on behalf of North Korea. Officials, however, do not believe that the attacks were executed from within North Korea.
This leads to the obvious question, who were the hackers? North Korea can't even trip over its own dick let alone topple a multinational company receiving security assistance from the US Government. There are only a few allies capable of that type of disruption, China, Russia and maybe Iran. I have no doubt that there is an ongoing, vigorous, tussle between governmental elements at US and Chinese technology companies. But this doesn't feel like something China would ever involve itself with. It all just too trivial; Iran too. A bizarre dictator's tiff over a movie is not a situation a world economic power associates with.
Unless, of course, that world economic power is Russia. This stinks to high heaven like Putin's doings.
Oil
OPEC held a governing meeting in Vienna On November 27, two days after the attack at Sony, and right about the same time as media outlets began to speculate that North Korea may be behind the misdeeds. OPEC is of course an organization comprised of twelve oil-producing countries that manipulates the production of oil to ensure favorable pricing schemes.
The OPEC meeting did not proceed as expected. Before the gathering, there was widespread speculation that OPEC countries would tighten their own oil production in order to prop up prices. US [sometimes] ally and world's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia refused to cut production and was willing to allow prices to continue to drop. According to one source, "the Saudis have signalled that they can live with lower prices around $80 per barrel in the short term. (The government has built up massive foreign-exchange reserves to finance deficits.)" The price of Brent Crude went into free fall following the meeting and lack of agreement, dropping from a $110 a barrel to $70 a barrel.
The drop in the price of oil and the economic sanctions following the invasion of the Ukraine were the one two punch that has toppled the Russian economy. If high oil prices fueled the revitalization of the Russian economy under Putin, they also have proved a weakness as the US searches for influence, which brings us to Cuba.
Cuba
Cuba, sweet Cuba, has seen the economic might of its two staunchest allies, Venezuela and Russia, disintegrate in a matter of months. As Moises Naam outlined in today's NY Times,
Venezuela’s economic collapse was an important factor in the historic change in U.S.-Cuba relations announced by President Obama and Raúl Castro on Dec. 17. Cuba’s bankrupt economy was kept afloat largely thanks to Venezuela’s massive oil subsidies since Hugo Chávez came to power in 1998. Recently, however, it became obvious that betting Cuba’s economy on Venezuela’s lifeline was too risky.
In short, Saudi Arabia's refusal to control its oil production at the recent OPEC meeting sunk Russia and Venezuela, forcing Cuba to search for better relations with the US or risk its own economic collapse.
Do I believe all of these events were caused by a dictator's poor response to a comedy? That's probably going too far, but it could have been the match that lit this whole damn powder keg.
Regardless, it'll be fascinating to see how the situation plays out. I'm curious about whether the US-Cuba relationship will hold when oil prices rise. Kerry is already signaling that sanctions "could be lifted in a matter of weeks or days, depending on the choices that President Putin takes." I have to imagine that Saudi Arabia will look to cut oil production as soon as the US green lights the decision.
For now, I'll credit The Interview.