I promised everybody several weeks ago that I would begin a brand new fantasy redistricting series on Daily Kos.
Well, it appears that Festivus Christmahanukwanzaakah has come early this year because I'm starting the series today.
The objective and Part 1 begin below that orange squiggly thing.
So let's begin with an explanation on cube-rooting, for those of you who don't know what that means in regards to redistricting. "Cube-rooting" is based on the theory that a legislature is best when its representation size is equal to the cube root of the total population that the legislature serves.
For the past 100 years, the U.S. House of Representatives has been fixed at 435 members. Meantime, the population of the United States has more than tripled in those 100 years. The average congresscritter in 1913 represented a little more than 210,000 people. Today, the average congresscritter represents over 700,000 people. Montana's lone representative, Steve Daines (soon to be Ryan Zinke), currently represents a population of almost 1,000,000. Read more about cube-rooting at Frustrated Progressive.
So let's say that the United States finally caught up with the rest of the world and expanded its lower legislative chamber. From now until the 2020 Census, the U.S. House would have 675 members. Sure, that wing of the Capitol would become crowded, but each representative's district would become less crowded. The average representative would have to represent only 450,000 citizens. Vermont's Peter Welch would then have the largest constituency. As the Green Mountain State's at-large representative, he would have to listen to only 625,000 people--nearly 375,000 people fewer than Montana's Daines/Zinke under the current system.
A Cube Root House would require 338 members for a majority. Now... as the House grows, so must the Electoral College. Those additional 220 votes would mean an Electoral College of 778 members (which would also mean that Nate Silver would have to change the name of his website). A presidential candidate would need 390 electoral votes to be elected president.
In this series, we will take a look at how all of the above would be affected by the cube root rule. We will not only see how each state could divide its congressional districts, but how many Democrats and Republicans would serve in the Cube Root House and which party would have the edge in the 2016 presidential election.
As I have done before, I will use Dave's Redistricting Application to carve out the new districts of the 47 states that would gain seats. Vermont and Wyoming would continue to be at-large districts, and Rhode Island would continue to have two representatives. It might not matter because Vermont and Rhode Island would remain solidly blue and Wyoming would remain solidly red.
As in my previous gerrymander reports, I will try to keep all congressional district populations within 500 of the average population. In states where voting precincts can include tens of thousands of citizens, I might cheat and leave a standard deviation of between 501-999.
On some states, you will see two cube root scenarios. I always have to do pro-Democratic gerrymandering, but I will also offer a more realistic redistricting plan with any gerrymandered map.
One additional note: As of December 2014, DRA does not have current election information for the voting precincts of three states--Montana, Oregon, and California.
I don't need to worry about Montana because Stephen Wolf took care of that state a few months ago. Scroll down into the comments to see his two-district map of Montana. He suggested that western Montana (1st District) would be a Tossup seat and eastern Montana (2d District) would be Lean R seat. But since the newly-elected Zinke (R) lives in Whitefish in the northwestern corner of the state, I'm calling both of Montana's seats and its 4 Electoral Votes Lean R.
I will estimate the partisan tilts of Oregon's new districts using county information (which is readily available). You will see those estimates later in the series.
I'm not touching the biggest state, California, which will require estimates for 82 new House districts. If Dave manages to put election information for California into his redistricting app in the future, then I will do a report on California. For now, though, I will leave that state blank.
Let's get this show on the road by looking at the Dakotas. This is a pair of sparsely populated states that would each gain a House seat under the cube root rule.
Let's start with North Dakota.
1st District (blue): The western two-thirds of the state, which includes Bismarck, Minot, and Dickinson. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) can run in this 60.5% McCain district with no trouble. Safe R
2d District (green): The eastern third of the state, which includes Fargo and Grand Forks. Cramer's 2014 Democratic challenger, George B. Sinner, lives in Fargo. This is a 52.1% Obama district, so Sinner would have a good chance of winning this seat in 2016. Lean D
4 Electoral Votes: Safe R
Down to South Dakota, which has two maps. The gerrymander first:
1st District (blue): Pretty much all of the "inside parts" of the state. Rapid City and the capital of Pierre are here. This is a 59% McCain district for the incumbent, Kristi Noem (R-Castlewood). Safe R
2d District (green): A district that runs along the borders of North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska. Includes Aberdeen and Sioux Falls. Former Democratic representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin lives in Brookings, so she could run here if she was looking for a political comeback. This is a 51.1% Obama district, so any Democrat would be at a slight advantage. Lean D
The more likely district map would look like this:
1st District: The western three-quarters of the state. Rapid City and Pierre are still here. Slightly less Republican than the gerrymandered 1st (57.2% McCain), but Noem is in no danger. Safe R
2d District: Starts in Aberdeen, then runs down the borders of Minnesota and Iowa. Both President Obama and Senator McCain received about 49% of the vote in 2008, with McCain at the advantage by a few hundred votes. Democrats have won redder seats than this one, so I'll call this one a Tossup. Could be Tilt D if Herseth Sandlin runs.
4 Electoral Votes: Safe R in any scenario
Let's look at those running totals:
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: MT, ND, RI, SD, VT, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 3 (RI-1, RI-2, VT-AL)
Lean D: 2 (ND-2, SD-2)
Tossup: None
Lean R: 2 (MT-1, MT-2)
Safe R: 3 (ND-1, SD-1, WY-AL)
Total: 5 D, 0 Toss, 5 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 3 (RI-1, RI-2, VT-AL)
Lean D: 1 (ND-2)
Tossup: 1 (SD-2)
Lean R: 2 (MT-1, MT-2)
Safe R: 3 (ND-1, SD-1, WY-AL)
Total: 4 D, 1 Toss, 5 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: MT, ND, RI, SD, VT, WY
Safe D: RI (4), VT (3) = 7
Lean D: None
Tossup: None
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: ND (4), SD (4), WY (3) = 11
Total: 7 D, 0 Toss, 15 R