We face a stark choice which world we will leave to our grandchildren and their grandchildren.
Irreversible But Not Unstoppable: The Ghost Of Climate Change Yet To Come
By JOE ROMM
Unlike Scrooge, we don’t get a spirit to show us what the future holds if we don’t change our ways.
That’s what we have science for. In recent years, observations have the key projections climate scientists have been making for decades. But some of the most important impacts have been occurring much faster than scientists expected, including sea level rise.
Recently, we’ve had many of the world’s leading scientists and scientific bodies warning us of what is to come.
Yes, it seems unlikely that we will adopt the aggressive but near-zero-net-cost policies needed to stabilize at 450 ppm atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, and then quickly come back to 350 ppm, thanks in large part to the deniers, along with their political pals and media enablers.
On the other hand, the IPCC made clear in its final synthesis report of the recent scientific literature that whatever changes we do bring to pass will likely be “irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale,” harming the lives of billions and billions of people.
The question of whether it’s “too late,” doesn’t have one purely scientific answer. It does seem clear that the most dangerous carbon-cycle feedback — the defrosting permafrost — hasn’t kicked in yet but likely will within two decades, adding 0.4°F – 1.5°F to total global warming by 2100. On the other hand, part of the West Antarctic ice sheet now does appear close to if not past the point of irreversible collapse. That said, the worst case of sea level rise can still be avoided, as can many other of the most serious impacts.
Delay is very risky and very, very expensive. As the International Energy Agency has explained, “on planned policies, rising fossil energy use will lead to irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change.”
“Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.”
Action now will save trillions and trillions of dollars.
Five years ago a NOAA-led paper laid out some alarming predictions for our climate-changed future.
…the climate change that is taking place because of increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop … Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise.
And we know that large parts of the currently habited and arable land are at risk of turning into Dust Bowls, gravely threatening global food security..
We must overcome our societal inertia, and make the status quo as unacceptable for the dirty energy behemoths, by breaking their grip on our government institutions. No small task given their entrenched status and enormous influence dirty energy exerts today.
The hard choices we face to transition away from dependence on dirty energy sources will look like child's play to future generations compared to the hard choices they will face if we can't overcome our inertia, and let things slide toward 400 PPM CO2 levels.