So Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R. KY) had quite a week. After his latest appearance at CPAC where he brought out musket to his buddy Senator Tom Coburn (R. OK), Mitch then released a new campaign ad that tried to paint himself as a true public servant:
http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/...
Advertising executives know that the information an ad conveys is less important than the feeling it inspires in the consumer. It’s not facts and figures but emotion that leads most people to spend money — i.e. the sense of well-being and prosperity that consumers believe they will get by using an expensive skin cream rather than a knockoff. That’s why car ads generally work to impart a sense of freedom and openness rather than details about the transmission.
Political consultants absorbed that premise a long time ago. (E.g. “It’s Morning in America.”) Still, most political ads relay some kind of policy-related message, even if it’s as generic as “big government is bad.” All the McConnell ad does, though, is suggest that Mr. McConnell’s a nice guy. (If he were a bad guy, the music wouldn’t be so cheery.)
The cynical if probably accurate underlying assumption is that policy details won’t get people to the polls, just like statistics won’t get people to the store. But the conviction that the brand — in this case, Mr. McConnell — is likable might just do the trick. - New York Times, 3/13/14
And once that ad hit the airwaves, the internet had a field day with GIFs and parody videos:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Jon Stewart stumbled upon a pretty amazing discovery Thursday: some strange b-roll of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) lends itself perfectly to literally any and every song set as its soundtrack.
And so "The Daily Show" introduced the world to #McConnelling.
The Kentucky Republican's re-election campaign released an odd, speechless ad Tuesday that began with about 15 seconds of footage of the senator staring straight into the camera and smiling. So Stewart played back that McConnell b-roll to everything from Simon and Garfunkel to The Who to Sir Mix-A-Lot. As he pointed out, the clip works with all of them -- particularly if the song mentions "eyes," although "I Like Big Butts" fit as well. - TPM, 3/14/14
Enjoy these videos for your viewing pleasure:
Now you'd think this would make Mitchs eyes roll and his face red up. Well sorry, it doesn't:
http://www.mediaite.com/...
After Jon Stewart thoroughly eviscerated Mitch McConnell’s weirdly blank-slate campaign ads/accidentally-released b-roll footage by adding dramatic music, the McConnell campaign decided that, instead of calling Stewart unfunny as usual, they would embrace the concept.
Realizing that dozens of people had cut McConnell into the opening credits of ’80s movies and ’90s sitcoms, his campaign told Dave Weigel that they’d roll with it, and this morning revealed a website with their favorite parodies, culled from the ripe bosom of the Internet. The campaign confirmed that they didn’t come up with the concept, but decided to add some videos of their own, and encouraged people to pick their favorites at, get ready, teammitch.com/parodies. - Medaite, 3/14/14
I'll admit, I really did like this one:
Now as much as I'd like to credit Jon Stewart for the #McConnelling trend, the person who originally started all was none other than McConnell's Tea Party opponent, Matt Bevin (R. KY):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Matt Bevin, the tea party candidate running against Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell in the GOP primary for this year's midterm election, released a new ad translating the the incumbent's ad from Wednesday in a closed captioned homage to Key and Peele's Obama anger translator. The main takeaway Bevin wishes to impart is that McConnell wants to punch conservatives in the nose all the time. A similar theme can be found in most tea party campaign ads this season.
The "punch in the nose" refrain refers to a donor call McConnell made on Oct. 30, 2013. McConnell told the donors that the Senate Conservatives Fund was full of a "bunch of bullies" he planned to “punch … in the nose,” according to the Washington Examiner. Breitbart.com, which first reported the call, said the senator's remarks were directed toward the whole tea party movement, which is how Bevin's campaign seems to interpret them in this video. - Washington Post, 3/13/14
Not bad. And Bevin released this ad not only to mock McConnell but to also fight back against Mitch's sidekick's defense:
http://www.businessinsider.com/...
Senator Rand Paul is beloved by the Tea Party, but he doesn't seem to be worried about Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's prediction the GOP establishment will "crush" primary challengers supported by conservative groups. When he was asked about McConnell's recent comments in an interview with Blaze Radio Tuesday, Paul suggested his fellow Kentucky Republican didn't really mean his vow to crush Tea Party insurgents.
"I think, in the middle of the campaign sometimes, things are said that may not be intended," Paul said of McConnell's remarks.
Paul, a likely 2016 presidential candidate whose strong support among the base was displayed in his landslide victory in the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll last week, also addressed the idea the Tea Party's strength is waning.
"I think the Tea Party still is a huge part of the Republican Party and really the energy of it," Paul said, later adding, "I still believe the Tea Party is a big factor and will be a big factor in the elections." - Business Insider, 3/11/14
While Paul might be sweating bullets, McConnell's having a good laugh about all of this which raises this question: How vulnerable is McConnell?
http://www.nytimes.com/...
Mr. McConnell is not only an incumbent senator who represents the party opposed to the White House in a midterm election, but he also comes from a state that opposes the president. Since 1956, only seven senators in these circumstances have lost re-election. The last time was in 1998, when John Edwards defeated Senator Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina.
But 2014 is not 1998. Back then, President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was in the mid-60s. Today, President Obama’s ratings are mired in the low 40s. Kentucky is also not North Carolina, which only narrowly voted against Mr. Clinton. Kentucky is an extremely favorable state for a Republican candidate: It voted for Romney and McCain by an average of 25 points to the right of the country.
From that perspective, there is no precedent for a McConnell defeat. No senator has lost in a state as favorable as Kentucky when the president represents the other party. And it’s not even close: North Carolina, it turns out, is the closest example. States with serious reservations about the incumbent president seem unwilling to dismiss the president’s opponents in the Senate.
Very few incumbent senators lose re-election in states as favorable as Kentucky, period. Since 1956, only one incumbent senator has lost re-election in a state more favorable than Kentucky under any circumstance. That senator was Ted Stevens, who was convicted on seven counts of corruption just one week before the 2008 election, in a tough year for Republicans. Despite all of that, he lost by only one percentage point. He is the exception that seems to prove the rule. - New York Times, 3/13/14
Now Nate Cohn hasn't cancelled out an Alison Lundergan Grimes (D. KY) upset victory. he noted McConnell's poor polling but points out that President Obama's standing in eastern Kentucky's coal country has alienated the heavily Democratic turf. But Grimes has been distancing herself from Obama on that issue. Cohn also advises Grimes to start going after the Republican-leaning voters to secure her victory.
But still, there are a few reasons for McConnell to be cocky about his re-election bid. He has some heavy backing:
http://www.kentucky.com/...
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its 300,000 members pledged Friday to spend more money on U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell's re-election than on any other race in America.
"Whatever it takes," Rob Engstrom, the chamber's national political director, told reporters shortly after a news conference in Lexington announcing the chamber's official endorsement.
Engstrom declined to say how much money the chamber planned to pour on the Senate minority leader, but the group has already spent more than half a million dollars on ads for McConnell dating to last summer, according to campaign finance records.
McConnell could use the help. He is facing well-funded opposition in May's Republican primary from Matt Bevin. Groups like FreedomWorks and the Senate Conservatives Fund - founded by former Republican U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint in South Carolina and now run by one of his former lieutenants - has spent hundreds of thousands to support Bevin or oppose McConnell, according to campaign finance records.
Speaking at Whayne Supply in Lexington - owned by McConnell donor Monty Boyd - McConnell never mentioned Bevin. Instead, he called his Democratic challenger - Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes - a "new face of the status quo."
"She is the new face of the same current leader of the Senate who says coal makes him sick," McConnell said. - AP, 3/14/14
Not to mention this lady is coming to McConnell's defense:
http://www.thewire.com/...
One of the reasons that McConnell has seemed vulnerable to both Democrats and a Republican primary challenger is that he's deeply unpopular in the state. Another is that the Republican establishment — in which McConnell is deeply rooted — is at war with its conservative flank. And that's made McConnell a subject of national opposition. (His saying he would "crush" his opponents didn't help.)
Which prompted Ann Coulter to come to his defense in a post at her website. McConnell's opponents, Coulter writes, are like those horrid mobs of liberals that run around being horrible. She outlines four reasons that McConnell deserves conservative support, bashing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and RedState.com as she goes along. McConnell, she argues, "tricked Obama into accepting the only spending cuts to the federal government in more than half a century," which is a generous interpretation of what happened in the run-up to sequestration, but there you have it. - The Wire, 3/13/14
And McConnell can still appeal to the Tea Party by backing their delusional 2016 dream:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) seems to have mixed feelings when it comes to how he approaches state-based legislation.
In an interview with Kentucky Public Radio last week, McConnell told a reporter that he “doesn’t take positions on state legislation.” The senator was responding to questions about state Senate Bill 5, which concerns drug overdoses and substance abuse issues.
However, McConnell told Roll Call on Wednesday that he supports state legislation that would allow Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to run simultaneously for both president and the Senate in 2016.
“I favor that,” McConnell told Roll Call. “Did they approve that? Yeah. I think that’s a good idea.” - Huffington Post, 3/12/14
So yeah, he has his reasons. He has a good feeling Bevin won't beat him in his primary, despite Bevin's most recent endorsement:
http://wfpl.org/...
Saying small businesses are the country's backbone, the mayor of Newport, Ky., is endorsing Republican Matt Bevin for U.S. Senate in the upcoming primary election.
Republican Jerry Peluso was first elected mayor of the Northern Kentucky city, which sits across from Cincinnati, in 2008. He previously served on the city commission and as vice mayor.
In a news release, he says Bevin understands the challenges of running multiple businesses and how they work.
"As someone who knows firsthand about operating expenses such as insurance, taxes, utilities, and state and federal regulations, Matt Bevin will support small business by fight for their survival," Peluso says.
The nod from a Kentucky Republican official is an important in-state pick up for the Bevin campaign, which is trailing McConnell by double-digits in most polls. Bevin has support from over a dozen Tea Party groups in the state and outside groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks. - WFPL News 89.3 FM, 3/13/14
Of course anything could happen before the May 20th primary election but Bevin would need something big to help improve his chances. But even if Bevin loses, and it looks very likely at this point, the Tea Party could still end McConnell's career because he helped create this monster:
http://www.salon.com/...
In spite of being one of the most powerful people in Washington, D.C., for at least the past decade, Mitch McConnell isn’t much of a known quantity outside political geek circles. But when it comes to explaining the failures and frustrations of the Obama years, he’s an absolutely indispensible character. As Vice President Joe Biden told journalist Mike Grunwald, McConnell, from the very beginning of the Obama presidency, demanded his fellow Republicans join him in opposing nearly everything the White House tried to do. Obama accomplished much during his first two years as president. But because of Republican obstruction and Senate filibusters, he failed to do a lot, too.
A bigger stimulus or a second round, spending on infrastructure, filling judicial vacancies, passing a public option, instituting a system of cap-and-trade; while it would be hyperbole to lay the government’s inability to do any of this solely at his feet, the truth is that, more than any other Republican in Congress, McConnell was responsible for pushing the U.S. into total dysfunction. During those first two years, especially, his absolute commitment to partisanship and gridlock was one of the chief reasons “change we can believe in” curdled and soured. The ascendance of the Tea Party? To a significant degree, you can thank Mitch McConnell for that.
Yet it’s starting to look as if McConnell is, like the rest of the country, becoming a victim of his own success. In service of his stated goal of making Obama a one-term president, McConnell was able to essentially break the federal government and convince the vast majority of the American people that D.C. was incapable of addressing the country’s many problems. When it came to making Obama look bad, that plan worked out pretty well. But here’s the problem: Once the Tea Party took over the House, Republicans no longer had the luxury of shirking all responsibility for the public’s dissatisfaction. And since he was in a position of leadership within the party, McConnell, more than most, suddenly had to figure out a way to wreak havoc without getting blamed for the mess.
As his terrible poll numbers in Kentucky can attest, McConnell still is trying to square that circle. Another effect of McConnell’s obstruct-at-all-costs strategy has been the double-edged sword of the Tea Party. It’s true that without the Tea Party, it’s unlikely Republicans would have such a vise-like grip on the House. But, at the same time, it’s not impossible to imagine that, without the Tea Party, Republicans by now would have already retaken control of the Senate. In 2010 and 2012, the GOP squandered ripe opportunities to make McConnell’s dream of becoming majority leader a reality by putting forward god-awful Tea Party candidates like Christine O’Donnell, Todd Akin and Sharron Angle. Now, in 2014, the odds look better than even for Republicans that the third time is the charm; and yet this is the moment when McConnell’s return to the Senate looks more doubtful than ever.
Considering the great and lasting damage McConnell’s done to the country, it’d be a mistake to describe this possible outcome — Republicans take the Senate while McConnell takes a hike — as a tragic or cruel irony. Even if he loses, the current Senate minority leader will still be rich and influential. Indeed, like almost every other former elected official, McConnell will probably become even wealthier after he leaves Congress and lands himself a nice lobbying sinecure. He’ll make a lot of money, give some boring corporate retreat speeches, maybe write a memoir, and otherwise be totally fine.
Nevertheless, it will be poetic justice if McConnell’s sunk by the same government dysfunction and far-right counterrevolution he worked so diligently to create. It won’t be nearly as satisfying as watching him at CPAC, pretending to know how to use a rifle, a goofy grin spread across his face. But it’ll give me something to remember him by — besides the shattered and smoldering ruins of the federal government of the United States. - Salon, 3/15/14
And though McConnell may have the financial backing, that alone won't guarantee his victory:
http://www.politicususa.com/...
Money isn’t everything, and it can’t buy you love. Republicans should have learned this in 2012, when Mitt Romney had all of the world’s big money behind him and he still couldn’t buy enough lies to win against Barack Obama.
In a new memo to be released Friday by the Grimes campaign that was obtained by PoliticusUSA, senior advisor Jonathan Hurst pointed out that Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) feels pretty invincible these days. Hurst observed that while McConnell has spent $10 million dollars, he’s still failing.
The fail, “One thing is indisputable over the last seven months: the braggartly, swaggering thirty year Senator’s Washington-style campaign is floundering. Before Alison entered the race, Mitch McConnell boasted that he would easily dispose of any opposition, proclaiming that “when anybody sticks their head up, do them out.” His campaign manager, Jesse Benton, even went so far as to say that they would run ‘the best statewide campaign in the history of United States American politics.’”
Hurst continued, “The evidence over the course of the campaign reveals exactly the opposite. Not only did Benton flop out of the gate, confessing that he was “holding his nose” to work for McConnell, but he also failed to keep out a self- funding, Tea Party primary opponent in Matt Bevin who has drained valuable time and resources from their campaign coffers.”
Republicans like Mitch McConnell appear to actually feel so emboldened by Citizens United that they feel invincible. McConnell has already spent $10 million on this race, and yet he is either head to head or trailing Alison Grimes in polls, and that was before his epic gun waving fail at CPAC.
David Corn, Mother Jones‘ Washington bureau chief, exposed a tape of McConnell made in February of 2013, in which he and his campaign discussed how they would destroy any opposition, “I assume most of you have played the, the game Whac-A-Mole?” (Laughter.) This is the Whac-A-Mole period of the campaign…when anybody sticks their head up, do them out.” How’s that “whac-a-mole” working out for McConnell so far? Not so much. - Politicus USA, 3/14/14
And Grimes even refutes Cohn's analysis and points out some factors that weren't mention in the Times' piece:
http://www.businessinsider.com/...
However, Cohn's analysis did not include a focus on McConnell's poor approval and favorability ratings in Kentucky. Grimes campaign senior advisor Jonathan Hurst also argues the head-to-head polling numbers show a Grimes advantage. He points out that, for the last seven months, "our campaign has steadily polled ahead of or in a dead-heat with Mitch McConnell," including the recent Bluegrass Poll in February in which Grimes had a 4-point lead. He also emphasizes Grimes' 12-point advantage with women in that poll.
"Despite facing millions of dollars in TV and radio attack ads, our campaign is tied or ahead in 12 recent polls without spending a single dollar on paid media," Hurst writes. "Our multimillion-dollar war chest will allow us to go toe-to-toe with the McConnell campaign and tout Alison’s message in every corner of the Commonwealth."
The other points in the memo focus on what Hurst described as Grimes' edge in grassroots organizing, while also touting her 20-point jobs plan for Kentucky.
"Mitch McConnell has never been so unpopular nor has he run against a candidate as focused and disciplined as Alison Lundergan Grimes," Hurst writes in his conclusion. "McConnell has met his match – and frankly, his replacement." - Business Insider, 3/14/14
Grimes' makes some valid points but in this race, you can't take anything for granted. If you want to get involved or donate to Grimes' campaign, you can do so here:
http://alisonforkentucky.com/