Claims are flying fast and furious that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary to economics professor David Brat because Cantor is too soft on immigration. But while Brat's viciously anti-immigrant positions may have turned a few hardliners out to vote,
immigration reform is actually very popular among the district's voters. A Public Policy Polling poll done for Americans United for Change on primary night found that:
72% of voters in Cantor’s district support the bipartisan immigration reform legislation on the table in Washington right now to only 23% who are opposed. And this is an issue voters want to see action on. 84% think it’s important for the US to fix its immigration system this year, including 57% who say it’s ‘very’ important. Even among Republicans 58% say it’s ‘very’ important, suggesting that some of the backlash against Cantor could be for a lack of action on the issue.
Just nine percent strongly oppose the bipartisan immigration bill, so while it's possible that those nine percent voted for Brat at a high rate, it's hard to make the case that immigration explains Cantor's defeat. Cantor's job approval numbers, on the other hand ...
Cantor has a only a 30% approval rating in his district, with 63% of voters disapproving. The Republican leadership in the House is even more unpopular, with just 26% of voters approving of it to 67% who disapprove. Among GOP voters Cantor’s approval is a 43/49 spread and the House leadership’s is 41/50.
The reasons for that shockingly low job approval rating will doubtless be debated endlessly in the coming weeks. But clearly his alleged softness on immigration is not the leading factor.