There have been plenty of discussions about the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the past few months. As with many issues, there are multiple viewpoints, and even camps here. Both Russia and Ukraine get their side of the story out in the media, and the Western world has by and large sided with the Ukrainian point of view.
What is the Pro-Ukrainian point of view? After the overthrow of the previous pro-Russian president, whatever your views on the legitimacy of that overthrow, and after Russia appropriated Crimea, whatever your views on that are, Ukrainian people have had a democratic election and have decisively elected a pro-Western president. Also after that overthrow, pro-Russian rebels have taken over large portions of the East/South East portions of Ukraine and declared independence from Ukraine. Ukraine's view is that those are parts of the sovereign Ukraine and have no rights to secede. It is Ukraine's view that the rebels are supported by only a tiny minority of the people living in the breakaway regions.
Continue on reading for the Pro-Russian viewpoint and some evidence
The Russian viewpoint is that those regions have large numbers of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers who deserve the right to self-determination, and that they also were being oppressed. There are claims of Neo-Nazis being in charge of Ukraine and fighting for Ukraine who want to ethnically cleanse the Russians. The rebels are those ethnic Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians who want to be no part of the "New" Ukraine. Also according to Russia, they are not involved in this conflict but are watching from the sidelines and morally support those fighting against the illegitimate Ukrainian government. Even now, the pro-Russian viewpoint categorically denies any Russian military involvement.
Most of the Western world is not buying the pro-Russian viewpoint. Why is that? Well, for starters there is no evidence of the democratically elected government ethnic cleansing of Russians in the East/South East Ukraine. From the beginning of the conflict, most Ukrainians wanted to be a part of one Ukraine. According to the Pew Research poll right before the Russian takeover of Crimea, only 12% of Ukrainians and 16% of Russians think the two countries should unite. The highest support for being a part of Russia is in the Ukraine's East and it is only 26% there (19% in the South). Another Pew Poll back in May shows that 77% of Ukranians believe Ukraine should remain united, including 70%! in the most Pro-Russian East. Of course it is next to impossible to poll people in the breakaway regions right now due to severerity of the conflict but it is well established that the separatists did not have anywhere near the majority of people in their own region supporting them.
The Right wing Ukrainian nationalists made a lot of noise around the time of the overthrow and in the runup to the elections, but the actual leader of the Nationalist Svoboda party, Oleh Tyahnybok, received 1.16% in the May elections. It is true that there are some volunteer nationalist battalions, but they are not in control of anything - certainly not in control of the Ukrainian military, nor are they in any way in control of the Ukrainian government. Yet we hear non-stop baseless accusations from the pro-Russian side that the Ukrainian government is neo-nazi and their military is neo-nazi. I'd say that Ukraine is about as neo-nazi as US and most of the European countries based on the available evidence. I'd love to hear otherwise and not just based on one nationalist battalion having a flag having some likeness to the swastika.
The other major Pro-Russian claim is that the Russian military is not involved in the conflict and many even claim that there is no Russian military equipment used. Let's take a look at some maps of the conflict. The fact is that originally the pro-Russian rebels had controlled a very large chunk of the East/South East Ukraine. Here is the map from July 1st when Ukrainian president had started the initial military advance on the separatist Region:
The tan bordered and striped territory is what the separatists held back then. As you can see it is a very large and contiguous part of the region. Scroll forward to the last few weeks:
Here is the situation on the 20th of August:
The Ukrainian troops have made decisive gains overall. One of the two major separatist cities - Luhansk - the separate rebel circle in the northeast has been completely cut off and encircled and the Ukrainian forces have almost done the same to the other major city of Donetsk. The tan bordered and colored territory of the Separatists had shrunk dramatically and Ukraine has started talking about final push for the two cities. You can see the tan stripes on blue and yellow, beyond the tan borders, show what the separatists used to hold.
It is in the last few days/week that we've been hearing the West pointing to serious evidence of active Russian troops fighting in Ukraine and much more Russian heavy weapons crossing the border. Look at what has happened on the map by August 30th:
The rebels have reconnected the city of Luhansk to the rest of the separatist territory in the Norht, have padded the margins around Donetsk in the West, have reconqured a large swath of territory between themselves and the russian border, and very dramatically invaded in the very South on the Sea of Azov, near the large seaport of Mariupol to which there is no other way to get through but through the Russian territory. How is it possible that after being on a continuing slide, and on the ropes for the last month, that the rebels were able to strike such decisive blows against the Ukrainian army? No, no Russian involvement there.
So what is the Russian endgame here? And what do all the people who continue to support the Russian side, clearly supporting the separatists with both equipment and soldiers, want from this conflict? For the life of me, I can't figure it out. Because the only logical pro-Russian ending in my view is the military occupation of large parts of Ukraine, and perhaps even a further invasion and removal of the "illegitimate" Ukrainian government. Every city that Ukrainian army has taken back from the separatists has had water/food and electricity restored and life returning to normal. Is that what you think ethnic cleansing is supposed to look like? Or is a defeat of the Russian puppets in Ukraine ethnic cleansing to you?
I have read so much blatant pro-Russian propaganda and it is difficult to see how they can remain objective in light of all the evidence. When there is a military insurrection that is not backed by popular support, but instead by foreign forces, what possible progressive values are there in supporting that military insurrection? Or is opposition to anything and anyone backed by the West is in itself a "progressive value".
It is heartening that most people here do support the Ukrainian people's right to self-determination in the face of Russian aggression and recognize that Putin is a despot who hates the idea of a sovereign country in his sphere of influence deciding to go against his wishes. But still there are enough people here who will defend the Russian side no matter what. What do they want?
One more thing. By acknowledging the situation in Ukraine and by supporting the Ukrainian people in their fight against the Russian backed rebels and Russian invaders, I in no way support any kind of Western military intervention and I have not seen anyone here on Daily Kos supporting Western military intervention. Most of us just want Ukraine to defeat their enemies, regain their sovereignty and to live their lives free to associate with whoever they wish.