Is Colorado Republican Bob Beauprez really up 10 points? Probably not.
Leading Off:
• CO-Gov, IA-Sen: Well, you can have one of two reactions to Quinnipiac's new polls of Colorado and Iowa. One is to panic and assume the sky is falling on Democrats. The other response is to say, "Hmm. These polls don't look like any others we've seen lately. That means they're probably off-base."
The latter option is, of course, the correct one, so let's see what we've got here, starting with Colorado. There, Quinnipiac finds Republican Bob Beauprez implausibly surging out to a 50-40 lead on Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, who's generally held small leads. In fact, Beauprez's only ever led in two polls, and never by more than a single point. One of those was from Rasmussen and the other from... Quinnipiac, back in July, when they had Beauprez ahead 44-43. Since then, they've switched to a likely voter model, and it seems that their screen must simply be bonkers.
And as we've noted before, the school has had trouble polling Colorado in the past, often finding much more positive numbers for Republicans than other outfits have. In Aug. 2012, they found Mitt Romney up 5 points, the most optimistic poll he ever saw there, and their final poll still had him on top by 1, even though he lost by more than 5. Likewise, in the summer of 2008, they also had John McCain leading at a time when pretty much no one else did.
And if Beauprez had internal numbers that were nearly this good, don't you think he'd have released them by now? He hasn't—but Democrats were ready with their own polling to counter Quinnipiac. Project New America released data from Myers Research showing Hickenlooper with a 51-44 advantage. That's actually the biggest lead Hick's seen in a while, but if you think those numbers are too gaudy, then that's a good reason to reject Quinnipiac's as well. And if you don't like either of these polls, then Suffolk is happy to split the difference, finding Hickenlooper up 43-41.
Iowa also requires the same level of skepticism. There, Quinnipiac has Republican Joni Ernst up 50-44 on Democrat Bruce Braley, the largest lead she's seen since just after she won the GOP primary. But again, Quinnipiac's switch from registered voters to likely voters has caused a dramatic shift, as Braley was up 4 in their last poll in June. Most recent polling has put Braley up a touch, and perhaps more importantly, Republicans are privately confessing that Ernst has slipped behind. (Politico's headline: "GOP frets over Harkin seat.")
And to be crystal clear, we're urging caution when interpreting these results not because they're bad for Democrats and we want people to plug up their ears and clap louder, but because they don't make sense in light of all the other available evidence. We'd be insisting on the same thing if Quinnipiac had suddenly found Pat Quinn or Mary Landrieu up 10. The point, as always, is that you can never rely on a single data point to draw conclusions, and Quinnipiac just gave us two good lessons as to why.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: Both Suffolk and Myers Research also have numbers on Colorado's Senate race, though for Quinnipiac's, you'll have to wait until Thursday. Myers finds Democratic Sen. Mark Udall up 48-46 on GOP Rep. Cory Gardner, while Suffolk actually has Gardner ahead 43-42.
What both of these polls share in common, though, is that they're the first in a while to find Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper performing materially better than Udall. Recently, the two had been doing about the same, so we'll see if this is just a blip or if there actually some daylight between the two Democrats.
• LA-Sen: Gravis Marketing: Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 45, Bill Cassidy (R): 45.
• NH-Sen, Gov, 01, 02: New England College has a full set of Granite State polls, though it's fair to say that the numbers are awfully rosy for Democrats. That's especially true when you compare NEC's House polls to new data from Normington Petts, which just polled both races on behalf of Gabby Giffords' gun safety group, Americans for Responsible Solutions. Here are all the toplines from NEC:
• NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 51, Scott Brown (R): 40
• NH-Gov: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 51, Walt Havenstein (R): 36
• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 46, Frank Guinta (R): 42
• NH-02: Annie Kuster (D-inc): 50, Marilinda Garcia (R): 37
And here are Normington's:
• NH-01: Shea-Porter: 45, Guinta: 43
• NH-02: Kuster: 44, Garcia 38
The 1st District toplines aren't too different, but NEC has Kuster up 13 while Normington has her ahead just 6—and that's in a poll for an organization that's endorsed both Democratic incumbents and, in fact,
just launched a TV ad buy on behalf of them. So that should give you some pause when looking at Shaheen's numbers, especially since even the DSCC's own recent internals have given her 8-point leads.
P.S. This is some good trolling.
• OR-Sen: Republicans initially held out some hope that physician Monica Wehby could give Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley a real race. There were just two problems: Oregon is a blue state and Wehby is... not a good candidate. Merkley has led in poll after poll, and the Koch-funded Freedom Partners has canceled its planned ad buy for October. If you're a Republican, you know things are dire when even the Koch brothers have decided that your campaign is a waste of money.
At least some Republicans are still arguing that Wehby can win, and they've released a new survey from The Polling Company/Womantrend. And the survey is in fact great news for John McCain Monica Wehby: She... trails 42-34. The memo tries its best to argue that Wehby has a real shot here. They note that Merkley is far below 50 percent and that Wehby isn't well known and can grow. Still, it's not a pretty picture for Wehby. After voters are read descriptions of both candidates (essentially "Merkley is a career politician while Wehby is a physician"), the best Wehby can muster is a 42-42 tie.
We took a look at the Polling Company's pre-election record, but they don't have much of one. They released a few polls in 2010, but none within a month of the election. In 2012 they conducted an October survey of the Indiana gubernatorial race showing Republican Mike Pence leading 46-37; Pence won 50-47, a six-point error in the GOP's direction. The group took a look at the Mississippi Senate Republican primary a little while before each round of voting. Two weeks before the first round they found Chris McDaniel leading Sen. Thad Cochran 43-39; the final margin between the two was less than 0.50 percent, so this wasn't too bad. However, about a week before the runoff they found McDaniel up 52-40: Cochran narrowly won the race.
In any case even if the Polling Company is right and Wehby has a shot, her campaign doesn't exactly seem to be firing on all cylinders. Weirdly, her campaign website has prominently displayed a fake quote attributed to Thomas Jefferson for months. Much more seriously, BuzzFeed reported on Tuesday that Wehby's health care plan is plagiarized from a survey from Karl Rove's American Crossroads group. Wehby's spokesman didn't issue the most convincing denial, saying, "The suggestion that a pediatric neurosurgeon needs to copy a health care plan from American Crossroads is absurd. Dr. Wehby is too busy performing brain surgery on sick children to respond, sorry." Uh huh.
But wait... there's more! On Wednesday, Buzz Feed reported that Wehby's economic plan is also plagiarized from several different Republican sources. This one is taken nearly word-for-word from Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, another Crossroads Survey, and 2012 CA-47 GOP nominee Gary DeLong. In the words of Thomas Jefferson, "If you want to convince rich people you can win, don't copy off of Gary DeLong of all people."
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov, Sen: A new Hays Research poll for the AFL-CIO offers our first look at Alaska's gubernatorial race since Democrat Byron Mallot incredibly unusual move to drop down and become Republican-turned-independent Bill Walker's running mate. Hays finds Walker ahead of GOP Gov. Sean Parnell 37-30, which of course means there are a ton of undecideds. What makes this so strange, though, is that Hays' last poll, conducted for the Walker campaign last month, had Walker up 43-40, so undecideds have doubled, even though we're that much closer to Election Day.
The numbers on the Senate race also show a lot of undecideds, with Democratic Sen. Mark Begich leading Republican Dan Sullivan 41-36. Here, though, we don't have prior numbers from Hays to compare to. However, it is worth noting that in the 16 public polls of this race taken this year, Sullivan's only led in 5 while Begich has led in 10 (one was tied). However, except for a pair of extreme YouGov polls, literally every survey we have out of Alaska is either from a partisan pollster (though that includes the high-quality PPP) or Rasmussen.
• MA-Gov: MassINC is out with the first poll of the Bay State's gubernatorial election, following last week's closer-than-expected Democratic primary. Democrat Martha Coakley holds a 44-35 lead on Republican Charlie Baker, the same margin as last month, when Coakley was up 41-32. There are still a large number of undecideds, particularly given how close we are to Election Day, but Coakley's led in all but one public poll, ever.
Baker does have a 10-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage, thanks to the fact that he didn't have a contested fight for the GOP nomination, though Coakley's fundraising in the first two weeks of September matched Baker's. It's a worrisome gap, but fortunately, the conditions are not ripe for a Scott Brown redux.
• MI-Gov, Sen: A new survey from Democratic pollster Denno Research, on behalf of Vanguard Public Affairs, finds Democrat Mark Schauer narrowing the gap with Republican Gov. Rick Snyder. Snyder now holds just a 43-40 lead, compared to 43-35 back in July. Overall, Snyder has just a 45-43 edge in Huffington Post's average.
At the same time, Democrat Gary Peters has increased his lead on Republican Terri Lynn Land, from 40-37 last time to 45-38 now. His average lead stands at 46-39, and the only pollster to find Land ahead since April has been YouGov.
• WI-Gov: Marquette Law School, which found Democrat Mary Burke edging Republican Gov. Scott Walker in its last two polls, now has Walker moving into a 49-46 lead among likely voters in their latest survey. In a reversal from previous polls, though, they find that likely voters, who previously were more apt to support Burke, now favor Walker; among registered voters, the race remains a 46-46 tie. (Last month, Walker was up 48-44 among RVs but Burke led 49-46 among LVs.)
That puts Marquette in line with other pollsters more generally, who typically find stronger Republican performances when screening for likely voters. The shift in this particular case, though, is hard to explain, but the movement is just a few points overall, so it may just be noise. And as we've noted repeatedly, it's not easy to filter out likely voters, and it often does more harm than good.
Rasmussen also chimes in, with Walker up 48-46, little changed from his 48-47 lead in August.
House:
• CA-52: SurveyUSA's newest poll of California's 52nd District contains some rather welcome news for Democratic Rep. Scott Peters, who now leads Republican Carl DeMaio 47-46. That's a big shift from June, when DeMaio was on top 51-44, but SUSA is typically quite bouncy, and their polling in the special election for the mayoralty in San Diego (where this district is located, more or less) was quite erratic. That makes these numbers hard to trust—we were skeptical of the firm's last poll here, too—but even if they're accurate, Peters still faces a serious dogfight.
• LA-05: The Club for Growth has endorsed businessman Zach Dasher, who is hoping to deny fellow Republican Vance McAllister a full term in Congress. It's not surprise that the Club despises McAllister, who won a special election last year in part by expressing mild support for accepting Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. Dasher hasn't really registered in the polls (all from Glascock Group), but the race is wide open and with some financial assistance from the Club, he could very well make the December runoff.
• NY-11: If Siena's new poll of New York's 11th Congressional District is accurate, then it's an almost perfect example of how thoroughly partisanized our nation has become. Despite facing grave federal tax evasion and perjury charges, and despite his fundraising going completely kaput, GOP Rep. Mike Grimm still holds a 44-40 lead on Democrat Domenic Rechhia. But how is this even possible?
As Alex Roarty explains in his close-up profile of the race, Staten Island, which makes up the bulk of the district, has forever had a chip on its shoulder as New York City's forgotten "fifth borough." Grimm, who excels at playing to these Nixonian resentments (and shares them himself), has plenty of supporters who view him as more of a "persecuted do-gooder" rather than a "felon-in-waiting," as Roarty puts it.
That's not to say that Grimm's indictment hasn't had a serious effect on this race. Indeed, it has, turning what had been a likely Republican hold into a tossup. And given that the Grimm has no money and the NRCC has turned its back on him, Recchia, who's been running ads focused entirely on the allegations against the incumbent, will be able to press his advantage hard from now through Election Day. But Grimm still has a very hardcore base of support on conservative Staten Island that won't desert him, and it just might be enough to allow him to win.
Grab Bag:
• DSCC, NRSC: We can't even say "as per usual" here. As per always, the DSCC outraised the NRSC last month, taking in $7.7 million while its Republican counterparts raised $6.1 million. Both committees have been spending heavily, but Democrats still have a considerable cash edge, $25.3 million to $19.9 million.
But even though Senate Republicans have faced a cycle-long shortfall, Alex Roarty reports that House Republican strategists are even more perturbed about the fact that donor money all seems to be going to the upper chamber. Democrats actually appear to be outgunning Republicans on the House front, which means the GOP is missing an opportunity make gains on what should be a very favorable map for them. Of course, you can't blame Republicans for prioritizing the Senate, but if Democrats are fortunate enough to ride a Hillary Clinton-powered wave in 2016, the House could very well change hands.
• Polltopia: Feel like you've seen more crappy polls than usual this year? You're not wrong. Dreaminonempty's new analysis shows that fully 21 percent of all Senate polls this year have come from GOP pollsters, many with miserable track records, while another 14 percent have been produced by Rasmussen and 16 percent by the Internet-only YouGov, which has had some quality-control issues and also yielded some very strange results at times.
That's a big jump from last cycle, when this trio was only responsible for a quarter of all polls. At least it's better than 2010, though, when Rasmussen truly flooded the zone, releasing fully 44 percent of all public Senate polls. You can find an exact breakdown at the link.
• President-by-LD: Today we venture to Louisiana, a red state where Republicans control both houses of the legislature, but where many conservative voters are still willing to send a Democrat to Baton Rouge.
Utilizing newly released data from Daily Kos Elections and new interactive maps by Stephen Wolf, Jeff Singer takes a detailed look at both chambers of his adopted state in a new post. You can take a look at how each state House, state Senate, and congressional district voted in the 2012 presidential election. As always, you can find a master list of all our state data here.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• GA-Sen: Republican David Perdue has two new spots (here and here). The first stars his cousin, former Gov. Sonny Perdue. The second goes after Democratic foe Michelle Nunn on immigration.
• IA-Sen: Planned Parenthood goes after Republican Joni Ernst on abortion.
• KY-Sen: The pro-GOP Kentucky Opportunity Coalition spends almost a million in their latest expenditure.
• MI-Sen: The Environmental Defense Fund spends another $389,000 against Republican Terri Lynn Land.
• MN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Al Franken accuses Republican Mike McFadden of dodging corporate taxes.
• Crossroads: New expenditures in favor of the GOP in AK-Sen, AR-Sen, CO-Sen (here and here), and IA-Sen.
• Freedom Partners: New pro-GOP spots from the Koch-funded group in NC-Sen (here and here) and NH-02, and expenditures in AK-Sen.
• NRA: The NRA has begun its multimillion dollar ad blitz in several Senate and gubernatorial races, all in favor of Team Red. Politico has a rundown of how much is being spent in each contest. We have copies of the spots being used in Senate races in Arkansas, Colorado, and North Carolina.
• AR-Gov: Democrat Mike Ross goes positive on education, featuring his parents.
• CT-Gov: The RGA-backed Grow Connecticut again goes after Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy on the condition of the state's economy.
• FL-Gov: The Republican Party of Florida goes negative once again on Democrat Charlie Crist.
• GA-Gov: Republican Gov. Nathan Deal has a bunch of positive ads (here, here, and here) on the state's economy.
• IL-Gov: Both major party candidates go hard negative in their new spots. Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn accuses Republican foe Bruce Rauner of defrauding the government. The narrator describes Rauner's company API of cheating patients, taking Medicate money for itself and leaving vulnerable citizens without the support they needed. Quinn has relentlessly portrayed Rauner as a heartless rich guy, but this spot even more aggressive than usual. It's been a very nasty campaign but this spot still stands out amidst it all.
Rauner's own spot tries to link Quinn to other Illinois Democratic politicians, including former governor and current jailbird Rod Blagojevich. The narrator argues that Quinn, Blagojevich, state Senate President John Cullerton, and state House Speaker Michael Madigan have spent their combined 100 years in Springfield creating a massive fiscal mess and being generally awful. The spot displays the banner "100 Years in Springfield," which sounds like a pitch to keep the Simpsons on for another 74 seasons.
• MD-Gov: Democrat Anthony Brown continues to go negative on Republican Larry Hogan.
• MI-Gov: Mark Schauer stars in the DGA's spot.
• AZ-09: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema goes positive.
• CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera contrasts his record with Republican Doug Ose's.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel has a compare-and-contrast ad against Republican David Young.
• FL-18: Okay, this ad from Republican Carl Domino is pretty funny.
• IL-17: Republican Bobby Schilling accuses Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos of cutting veterans' benefits.
• LA-06: Garrett Graves, one of the multitude of Republicans running in the November jungle primary, has a boring introductory ad.
• MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson's first general election spot starts out positive.
• NH-01, 02: Americans for Responsible Solutions goes up against Republicans Frank Guinta and Marilinda Garcia.
• NY-23: Democrat Martha Robertson hits Republican Rep. Tom Reed on trade and taxes.
• TX-23: Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego goes positive on veterans' issues.
• DCCC: We have new spots in AZ-01, CA-52, and IA-03. We also have expenditures for various races.
• NRCC: The GOP also has new spots in AZ-02, CA-52, IA-03, and NY-21.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, and Steve Singiser.