For the last 8 years I have been creating a database of polling. Much of it is about Presidential Primaries - and Nate Silver cited the data. But the general election database has grown as well. To date, the database has 10,758 polls. It includes:
*Senate Polling from '98 to '12
*Presidential Polling from '96 to '12
*Governor Polling from '92 to '12 (some of the Gov polling from '98 to '02 is a little sparse, but there is still plenty of data).
Why? Because I am a big believer that history can help identify trends. Most of the writers about polling don't have enough data. But as you extend the data, you realize one unmistakable trend - a steady rise in the number of incumbents below 50. I believe there is a reason for this: while the economy has recovered, it is still is nowhere close to healthy. The Republicans have moved so far right their approval rating is at record lows. People sense solutions are not being offered, and it shows up in polling.
The table below summarizes the number of incumbents under 50 in September polling since 1998.
Consider this: this morning there are 25 incumbent governors and senators under 50. 14 Republicans and 12 Democrats. Historically this is unprecedented. And not how different this from 2010, when 15 of 19 incumbents under 50 were Democratic.
Not all or even most of these incumbents are going to lose. But the point is underneath the surface you see deep discontent with both parties and their candidates.
The reason people are missing this is they are focused on the Senate. But when you step back, you see that:
1. Almost all of the Democratic Weakness in the Senate is a result of where the seats are being contests. Holding the Senate requires holding two of four: LA, PVI R+12. Ark, PVI R+14, NC R+3, AK, PVI R+14, or alternatively winning GA, PVI R+6 or KY, PVI R+13.
BTW - since 1998 there have been 12 incumbent Senators in PVI -10 states who were under 50 going into September. 10 have lost. The last to actually win was Johnson in SD in 2002, before that you have to go back to Hollings in 1998
2. When you look at the House Polling, there is no real sign the GOP is going to pick up any seats at all. Yet historically the party holding the White House gets killed in te mid-terms of a second Presidential Term.
3. Most are missing what is happening in the Governor's races. In those races GOP govs are well below 50 in Kansas, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The truth is the numbers as hole represent a failure of enormous proportions by the GOP. More on that on Wednesday.