No roundup last night, I know; I actually went out to dinner with my wife last night, seeing how it was, you know, Valentine's Day. As a result, you get the final 2 days of updates all in one shot...
SATURDAY:
First, a couple of quickie last-minute number updates...
--Colorado: 128K QHPs thru 2/09...or 2/02??
—California: 25K QHPs on Friday; 1.36M Total
I took a long, hard look at all of the state-level data and did some reshuffling of the numbers...
--Final National Projection: Somewhere between my original & revised target (12.2 M - 12.5 M)
In short, I lopped off several hundred thousand enrollees from 14 states (mainly California, Massachusetts, Washington, Colorado and Michigan), but beefed them up across just about every other state (mainly Florida, Virginia, Texas and Georgia), but left the overall total the same
And then, just a couple of hours later...OUCH: It finally happened:
--UPDATE: HC.gov running into tech issues on 2nd to last day...
SUNDAY:
The IRS income verification outage (9 hours during the busiest part of one of the busiest days) stung, hard:
--How much did yesterday's income verification outage hurt enrollments? (UPDATED)
This, along with the snowstorms in the Northeast, led to a domino effect of extensions, making my Final Surge curve fairly obsolete:
--UPDATE: 40 State Exchanges Issue Vaguely-worded Enrollment Extensions. Sort of. I think.
I took a breather to address one really irritating story I read the other day:
--In which a bunch of 2014 enrollees make like Lt. Renault from Cacablanca
...and then Maryland joined in the fun...
--Maryland: 113.4K QHPs, 140K Medicaid, "In Line By Midnight" Extension Announced thru 2/28
...as did Connecticut:
--Connecticut joins the "In Line by Midnight" Crowd
...which meant that as of 7:40pm, there were only six states left which hadn't announced some sort of extension period:
--No Sleep 'til Brooklyn: Deadline Extension Roundup
...all of which meant that I had to take a good 500K - 600K enrollees and spread them out over the next 2 weeks...
--Final Call for the Heck of It: 11.9M by midnight, 12.4-12.5M by 2/28
...which, visually, should end up looking something like this:
--THE GRAPH: Overtime Overhauled Edition