One of my primary sites for insight on the Middle East is the most excellent "Informed Comment" of Professor Juan Cole. He dissects the neocon, revisionist, naive pronouncements of "the smart one" succinctly in this article: http://www.juancole.com/....
A short quote:
Jeb Bush gave a maiden foreign police speech in Chicago yesterday in which he mixed up Iran with Iraq and alleged with science fictional inaccuracy that Daesh (ISIS or ISIL) has 200,000 men under arms. The actual number of fighters is probably 20,000. His office later admitted that he ‘misspoke.’
Please take time to read the rest of the article. It's important.