You may have read that the GOP's scapegoat du jour is the disabled.
Though the Social Security Administration's own studies show the disability fraud rate is under 1%, Rand Paul is going around claiming over half the people on Social Security disability and SSI disability aren't really disabled.
And Rand is just the tip of the idiocy iceberg. The GOP majority in the House of Representatives has changed a House rule in a way that will prevent Congress from making an accounting adjustment to the Social Security Trust Fund. If nothing is changed, the SS Trust Fund's subaccount for disability is projected to run dry by the end of 2016.
Let's be clear--this is a manufactured crisis, like the government shutdown of 2013. In the past Congress has (11 times) simply shifted money within the Social Security Trust Fund from the retirement subaccount to the disability subaccount, or vice versa, to keep them both on the same footing. If Congress did so now, it would postpone the projected exhaustion date far off into the misty future. The only reason Congress isn't doing so now is that the GOP running Congress needs a new scapegoat-based spectacle, to distract Americans (yet again) from the fact you can't have something for nothing.
And there's an excellent chance that, like the government shutdown, the disability "crisis" will blow up in the GOP's face.
Understanding why requires a little explanation of who would--and wouldn't--get hurt if the Social Security Trust Fund's disability subaccount hits a zero balance.
That explanation, over the ticking orange time bomb.
This requires a fairly geeky level of understanding of how the retirement and disability programs work. But as Ross Perot said, hang in here with me for a minute.
The Social Security Administration operates TWO retirement programs, and TWO disability programs—a total of FOUR.
(Plus some other programs for dependents of disabled or deceased workers. Don't worry about those for now.)
Retirement and disability benefits from the Social Security Trust Fund: OASDI
One Social Security retirement program and one Social Security disability program are funded through the Social Security Trust Fund. These fall under the general program called OASDI, which stands for Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance. The disability program under OASDI is officially Disability Insurance Benefits (“DIB”), also sometimes called SSDI.
Under OASDI, both retirement and disability, your benefit amount is determined by your work record. The more payroll taxes you and your employers have paid into the Social Security Trust Fund on your behalf over the years, the higher your monthly benefit amount.
What's in the news now is the fact that the subaccount in the Social Security Trust Fund that funds DIB is running short, and in the past when this happened, Congress simply shifted some money from the Social Security Trust Fund subaccount that funds Social Security retirement. The House rule change indicates they don't intend to allow this to happen.
Retirement and disability benefits from general government funds: SSI
Which brings us to Social Security's other retirement and disability programs: Supplemental Security Income retirement and Supplemental Security Income disability. Both SSI programs are funded by general Congressional spending (general tax revenues or borrowing), NOT by payroll contributions.
SSI benefits are "supplemental." What this means is that if your regular Social Security (OASDI, from the Social Security Trust Fund) retirement or disability benefit falls below a certain minimum amount—set by law, and adjusted every year for inflation—then you get an SSI check to make up the difference. For 2015, the minimum amount is $733 a month. So if your regular Social Security disability is $500 a month, then you also get an SSI check for $233. If your regular Social Security disability is $600 a month, then your SSI is $133 a month. If your regular Social Security disability is $732 a month, then your SSI is $1. And if your regular Social Security disability is $733 or more, then you don't get any SSI.
(1.This all assumes you have no other income. If you do have other income, that might reduce or eliminate your SSI. 2. Some states kick in extra funding for higher SSI benefits.)
What happens if nothing changes—and to whom
Think about how this will work if Congress does nothing and the disability subaccount of the Social Security Trust Fund becomes completely tapped out. DIB benefits will not drop to zero, because there is a continuous stream of revenue flowing in from ongoing payroll contributions. Instead DIB benefits will have to be cut so the outflow matches the inflow. According to current projections, DIB benefits will have to be cut by 19%.
If you are a disabled person who is already receiving a $500 DIB check and a $233 SSI check, this means your DIB check will be cut by $95, to $405. But your SSI check will have to go up by that same $95, so your new SSI amount will be $328. You will still get a total of $733 a month.
If you are a disabled person who is currently getting a DIB check for $800, then you are currently getting no SSI at all. A 19% cut to your DIB will bring that down to $648, which means you're now eligible for a monthly SSI check of $85. So your total monthly benefit goes down from $800 to $733. (AND you now get Medicaid, which comes with SSI, instead of the less-generous Medicare, which comes with DIB. AND since Medicaid and SSI are funded from general tax revenues or borrowing, NOT FICA or Social Security payroll taxes, this supposedly money-saving measure means the USA's budget deficit goes up.)
If you are a disabled person currently getting a DIB check for $1100, a 19% cut will bring you down to $891. Which means you still won't qualify for SSI.
The political upshot
Politically, this means that the poorest people now on disability will not be hurt at all, but the more middle-class people will be hurt. Voter turnout goes up with income, so the GOP will be pissing off the segment of the disabled population that is most likely to vote.
And since a lot of those people will now be asking their friends and family for help paying their bills, the GOP will be pissing off their friends and family, too.
I know what you're thinking: “Won’t Congress just monkey with the $733 a month floor, so the poor will get screwed, too?” Well, that would require a change in the law, which means the Democrats in the Senate could filibuster it. And if the GOP managed to break the filibuster, Obama could veto it.
This could turn out to be 2016's equivalent of the government shutdown. Once again, the GOP turns out to be its own worst enemy.
3:03 PM PT: UPDATE: A commenter correctly points out income in the range of $1,000 to $1,200 a month is well below middle class.
A fair % of people getting DIB at $1,000 and up have other assets or other income, or middle-class families who can help with expenses.
Those with SSI generally by definition don't have other income or assets, because most other income or assets would financially disqualify them for SSI.
But obviously, income in the range of only $1,000 to $1,200 a month or so is poverty level.