This will not be as in-depth as I originally intended, but the necessity I found in publishing it at all overcame my desire for a deeper analysis of the region. Eastern Oregon is a geographically and politically diverse region, or really collection of neighboring regions. There are more counties there than in other parts of Oregon, and while there are many communities and settlements they tend to be small, and settlement is focused on several hubs, I will gloss over a lot of the particularities unless they are notable. The Gorge and Columbia region extends from Cascade Locks to the end of the Columbia River’s run as the northern border of the state. The Northeast stretches from there through the Blue Mountains to the Idaho border. Central Oregon is largely defined by the city of Bend and its satellite communities. Southeastern Oregon is sparsely populated but vast (bigger than West Virginia in land area). It is also the only region in the east that has never had a strong Democratic presence in Oregon’s modern history.
All of these regions are within Oregon’s 2nd Congressional district represented by Republican Greg Walden. All of the areas are fully represented by Republicans in the legislature, although within the last 20 years several have had Democratic legislators at times. Of the seventeen counties in the region Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden both carried three counties in this region in their most recent US Senate campaigns, Barack Obama carried two in 2008 and one in 2012, and John Kitzhaber only carried one county here in either of his 2010 or 2014 gubernatorial elections.
The Gorge and Columbia region
The Gorge and Columbia River area includes Hood River, Wasco, Sherman, Gilliam (pronounced Gillum), and Morrow counties, from west to east. Wasco is one of the oldest counties in Oregon, and all of the other counties in Eastern Oregon were once part of it. The region is also home to both ancestral and continued Democratic strength, though where Democrats used to be and where they are now has flipped from the east end to the west end.
Gorge and Columbia River region in 2008 presidential election by census tract
The principal cities in this region are The Dalles in Wasco County and Hood River in Hood River County, in the west, and Boardman in Morrow County to a lesser extent at the eastern end. Demographically the region also has bookends. Hood River County is heavily Hispanic/Latino (25% in 2000, 30% in 2010), as is Morrow County (24% in 2000, 34% in 2010), and in the under 18 population both were at or near majority non-white in 2010. Wasco County is whiter, but in addition to a Hispanic/Latino population there are tribal lands, so the combined Hispanic/Latino and Native American population was over 20% in 2010, and getting bigger (37% among minors). Sherman and Gilliam counties are both among the whitest counties in the state, but they are also among the least populous (each under 2,000 people in 2010). All counties except Hood River had a decline in their white populations from 2000 to 2010.
Oregon: 77.5% Non-Hispanic/Latino White Alone, 12.3% Hispanic/Latino
Gilliam: 89.7% White Alone, 6.1% Hispanic/Latino
Hood River: 65% White Alone, 30.3% Hispanic/Latino
Morrow: 61.8% White Alone, 34% Hispanic/Latino
Sherman: 89.9% White Alone, 6.9% Hispanic/Latino
Wasco: 76.1% White Alone, 16.4% Hispanic/Latino, 4.4% Native American
Unsurprisingly given the racial demographics Hood River and Morrow are the youngest counties in the region, Sherman and Gilliam the oldest, and Wasco is in between. In educational attainment Hood River and Wasco have higher portions with college educations, the eastern counties worse. In poverty Hood River and Gilliam have below-average poverty rates for Oregon. Morrow and Wasco are higher than average, and Sherman County has one of the highest poverty rates in the state. In median household income Hood River County does best, Morrow is doing better, while the rest are lower.
Adult rate of High School Diplomas - Bachelor Degrees – MHI – Poverty rate
Gilliam: 91% - 14.7% - $44,700 – 11.8%
Hood River: 84.1% - 30.5% - $56,700 – 11.6%
Morrow: 75.5% - 9.7% - $49,900 – 18%
Sherman: 92.4% - 16.5% - $42,600 – 22.1%
Wasco: 85.1% - 20.1% - $43,800 - 18.2%
Food, beverages, and power dominate the industries in the region. Wheat in the east and orchards in the west, but food processing or manufacturing is also a big industry particularly in Hood River where Turtle Island Foods (Tofurkey) has one of the only LEED-certified factories in the world. Hood River also has a huge number of breweries and wineries, and there’s also distilling. I’d guess in terms of breweries that the town has more per capita than anywhere else in the state. Electric generation occurs at the hydroelectric dam in The Dalles, as well as Oregon’s only coal plant in Boardman, which also has natural gas plants. The coal plant will shut down soon. There are also large wind farms scattered across Sherman County and from there on east. Tourism and recreation are also a big deal, especially at the western end. Good conditions for windsurfing on the Columbia around Hood River, and the proximity to Mount Hood (which is at the southern end of the county, at the border with Clackamas County) bring in lots of people, as do the aforementioned wineries and breweries, and even the orchards are used to attract people. As of August since the recession Gilliam had recovered less than 10% of its jobs lost, but the rest of the region had recovered all or nearly all in the case of Sherman County. Gilliam County “benefits” from having landfills that service the Portland area.
Turnout was relatively high in this region in 2014. Gilliam and Sherman had among the highest turnout in the state. Morrow had the 7th lowest in the state, but Hood River and Wasco were both several points above statewide turnout. In recent years all except Hood River have had a declining number of voter registrations. Hood River and Wasco counties have kept their share of the statewide vote the same between 1996 and 2012, while the eastern counties declined.
In 2001 Democrats clung to a small advantage in voter registration in Morrow County, and Hood River County, which a larger advantage in Wasco, while Republicans had a small advantage in Gilliam and a bigger one in Sherman. Since then things have changed dramatically. In Hood River County there are now more unaffiliated voters than Republicans, and the Democratic advantage has surged. Wasco County’s Democratic advantage has dwindled, while the three counties in the east are all now strongly Republican in registration.
Major party votes cast in this region in presidential elections 1960-2012
In actual voting things have changed a lot. In 1996 Bill Clinton won every county in the region except Sherman. Hood River was traditionally more Republican. Gerald Ford carried it, as did Republicans in the 1986 and 1990 gubernatorial elections and the special US Senate election between Ron Wyden and Gordon Smith in 1996. It has still largely been represented by Republicans in the legislature, though Rick Metsger (D-Welches) represented the county in the state senate for a while, and from 2009-2011 it was represented by a Democrat in the House. It also votes for Greg Walden typically because he is their native son. Despite that in statewide elections it is now among the most strongly Democratic counties in the state.
The following chart has the Democratic share of the two party vote in the counties and some cities. Counties are in gray, cities in white, and that will continue throughout the rest of the diary. Some of the smaller cities do not have their own precincts so those are rough.
This chart has the same for gubernatorial elections:
Wasco County tends to go Democratic for stronger Democratic candidates. It went for Obama in 2008 but he lost it by a mere 18 votes in 2012. Note Barack Obama won the region overall in 2012 while only actually winning Hood River County. It went for Jeff Merkley in 2014 but not John Kitzhaber. It’s Democratic heritage goes further back than Hood River’s, as looking back through history Democrats usually had a decent chance of carrying it if they were competitive statewide. We also came within a few hundred votes of winning a house district based in Wasco and Jefferson counties in 2006. Sherman County is and generally has been the most staunchly Republican county in the region; it was one of only two counties in Eastern Oregon to vote against Wayne Morse in 1954, and has been consistent. Ron Wyden won Gilliam County in 2010 and it was one of the swingiest counties in the state in 2014, with Jeff Merkley losing by under 10 points while the rest of the Democratic ticket did far more poorly. Morrow County does seem to have drifted far to the right in recent years, though. That may change if demographic change catches up to the politics of the place.
Are there distinguishable trends in the region? The region as a whole seems to have gone with the winner in presidential elections. The Democratic vote in Hood River County grew about every year from 1980 to 2008, while the Republican vote peaked in 1984. Sherman and Morrow County seem to be getting more Republican, and Hood River more Democratic, but I'm not sure that recent years have shown much fluctuation in Gilliam and especially Wasco. Gilliam has shown some movement towards Republicans, likely as the Greatest Generation has passed on, which I would attribute much of the decline among Democratic performance in the East to. It has not been terribly consistent, though, as the county has still shown willingness to vote Democratic in some races. Wasco looks fairly stable in terms of vote share in recent elections, and the Democratic vote has been fairly stable, but the Republican vote has been erratic. Bob Dole received little more than half the number of votes in 1996 as Reagan did in 1984.
The Northeast
Northeastern Oregon Stretches from Hermiston to the Idaho border. In this definition I’m including the counties of Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Grant, and Baker. Once it departs east from the Columbia River it includes the Blue and Wallowa mountain ranges. Communities have lived in the valleys since long before the area had its first white inhabitants. The principle cities of the region are Hermiston and Pendleton in Umatilla County, La Grande in Union County, and Baker City in Baker County. Wallowa and Grant counties have cities but both counties have total populations less than Baker City. Umatilla County is the most populous and urban of the region.
Demographically the region has some extreme differences. Wallowa is one of the oldest counties in the state and one of the whitest, Umatilla one of the youngest and has significant non-white populations, mostly Hispanic/Latino and Native American (the under 18 population is 44% non-white). Even within Umatilla County the non-white populations are concentrated in a few areas, with Hispanic/Latino populations centered in Milton-Freewater, Umatilla, and Hermiston, and Native Americans on the reservation east of Pendleton. The other major city in the county, Pendleton, is much whiter. Outside of those few communities the rest of the Northeast is nearly uniformly white, and tends to be older. Baker and Grant are also among the whitest counties in the state, Union is younger and a little less white, possibly because it seat, La Grande, is home to Eastern Oregon University, which draws more young people. All but Union County saw an outright decline in white population between 2000 and 2010.
Oregon: 77.5% Non-Hispanic/Latino White Alone, 12.3% Hispanic/Latino
Baker: 91.9% White Alone, 3.7% Hispanic/Latino
Grant: 92.2% White Alone, 3.2% Hispanic/Latino
Umatilla: 68% White Alone, 25.2% Hispanic/Latino, 4.2% Native American
Union: 89.7% White Alone, 4.4% Hispanic/Latino
Wallowa: 93.8% White Alone, 2.7% Hispanic/Latino
In terms of educational attainment most of the counties are about 5-9 points behind the statewide rate of bachelor’s degrees, but Umatilla County is only slightly more than half the state rate. In median household income Grant is among the lowest in the state, Umatilla closest to average, and the others somewhere in between. In terms of industries the region has some differences as well. The more heavily Hispanic/Latino areas happen to have quite a bit of agricultural activity; the Hermiston area is known for watermelons. Wheat farming, cattle ranching and shepherding are other main industries, with forestry having declined somewhat. Public employment is high in the region given that much of the lands are owned by the Forest Service, there is also Eastern Oregon Correctional Institution and Two Rivers in Umatilla County, and a chemical weapons depot in Umatilla, though that is scheduled to close this year. Since the recession began Union County has had around half of its job losses restored, Wallowa about a third, but the other counties less than 10%.
Adult rate of High School Diplomas - Bachelor Degrees – MHI – Poverty rate
Baker: 89.4% - 20.9% - $41,500 – 18%
Grant: 89.5% - 20.5% - $35,000 – 17.3%
Umatilla: 81.9% - 15.5% - $48,400 - 16.5%
Union: 90.6% - 22.5% $42,500 - 18.6%
Wallowa: 93.5% - 24% - $42,000 - 13.4%
Voter turnout is also different among the counties. As one might expect in the youngest and least white county, which has among the lowest educational attainment, there is the lowest turnout both in terms of registered voters and all adults. That’s true, and in fact in 2014
Umatilla County had the lowest turnout in the whole state. Union was higher, and Grant, Baker, and Wallowa had among the highest turnout in the state. All of these counties except Umatilla have experienced a decline in number of registered voters in recent years. In turn all of these counties suffered a decline in share of the statewide vote between 1996 and 2012.
Northeastern Oregon in the 2008 election by census tract
Today this is one of the most Republican regions of the state, but earlier in our history Democrats had much strength there. The reason is mostly mining. In our early history mining was the dominant industry in the Northeast (and also big some other parts of the state, like Southern Oregon) and miners there were more likely to vote Democratic than people in much of the rest of the state. Today there are ghost towns where those miners used to live. As mining has declined and Democrats have been associated with environmentalism Democratic performance has cratered. The recent high water mark for Democratic strength in the Northeast was probably 1986, when the Democratic challenger to US Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Portland) did better in this region than in Multnomah County, winning Union County by a bit and Wallowa County by an astonishing 78-20%. He nearly won Baker County, too. He lost every county other than Union and Wallowa, though. That same year Democratic gubernatorial candidate Neil Goldschmidt won Union and Baker counties. A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won any of these counties since 1964, when LBJ won them all, but in 1960 JFK did win Baker, Union, and Wallowa.
Major party presidential votes in Northeast 1960-2012
Democrats were more successful locally, with some of the Northeast electing Bob Jenson to the legislature as a Democrat in the 1990s. Jenson changed parties in the late 1990s but remained a moderate, and the area still has some relatively moderate Republican legislators representing some of it, like State Rep. Greg Smith and State Senator Bill Hansell. Gordon Smith is from Pendleton, and represented the region in the state legislature before his elevation to the US Senate. Historic Democrat Al Ullman was from Baker. Senate Minority Leader Ted Ferrioli lives in John Day, in Grant County.
Breaking it down into counties and cities here is the Democratic share of the two party vote in just recent presidential elections:
And in gubernatorial elections:
Central Oregon
Central Oregon is home to the biggest city in the East, as well as the only location of significant growth in population. That isn’t a coincidence. Bend is driving the most dramatic growth the state has seen over the last 20 years. It’s also one of the only areas that should give Democrats any hope moving forward, because Bend is voting increasingly Democratic, while demographics in Jefferson County just to the north are about to flip.
Bend is the biggest city in all of Oregon east of the Cascades. In fact its population is bigger than any county other than its own, Deschutes, east of the Cascades. The other significant cities in the region are Redmond, the other major city in Deschutes County, Madras, the biggest in Jefferson County, and Prineville in Crook County.
Bend is one of the whitest major cities in Oregon, and that also isn’t a coincidence. With the booming local economy there has been tremendous demand for housing, and the supply has not kept up. Vacancy rates in Bend and nearby Redmond are at or below 1%. Landlords can afford to be very picky about who they let rent.
All of the counties and cities in this region are heavily white outside of Jefferson County.
Population Estimates in 2013
Oregon: 77.5% Non-Hispanic/Latino White Alone, 12.3% Hispanic/Latino
Crook County: 88.8% White Alone, 7.4% Hispanic/Latino
Deschutes: 88.1% White Alone, 7.7% Hispanic/Latino
Jefferson: 60.2% White Alone, 19.9% Hispanic/Latino, 19.1% Native American
Wheeler: 89% White Alone, 4.5% Hispanic/Latino
Over 58% of the minor population in Jefferson County is non-white. Wheeler County is one of the oldest in the state, with over half (54%) of residents above the age of 50, Crook is somewhat younger (44%) and Deschutes and Jefferson are significantly younger (36-37%).
At 31% of the 25 and older population having bachelor’s degrees Deschutes County is one of the better educated in the state and has the highest rate in Eastern Oregon, but it also nearly doubles the rate of any other county in Central Oregon. In high school diplomas Deschutes is also at the top in the region with 93.1% of adults having them.
Adult rate of High School Diplomas - Bachelor Degrees – MHI – Poverty rate
Crook: 84.9% - 14.5% - $38,800 – 19.5%
Deschutes: 93.1% - 31% - $50,200 – 14.5%
Jefferson: 84.7% - 17.3% - $43,400 - 19.8%
Wheeler: 88.6% - 16.8% - $38,000 – 15.6%
Wheeler and Deschutes’ poverty rates are below state average but the other counties are above it. Despite this Wheeler County has one of the lowest median household incomes in the state, at under $38k. Deschutes is almost the same as the average for the state (which is about $20 higher) and the highest in Eastern Oregon outside of Hood River.
The local economies in these areas traditionally were based on agriculture, raising cattle or other animals, and forestry. Today the Jefferson, Crook, and Wheeler are all now generally bedroom communities where workers flock to employment centers like Bend. With mountains, rivers, forests, and even fossil beds in the region every county has a significant tourism/recreation industry. Bend and the rest of Deschutes County have developed a massive amount of business in that field, which has turned Bend into a premier vacation spot. Nearby skiing and kayaking opportunities have long attracted vacationers, but now a booming brewing industry brings people in as well. The other counties are in on the tourism business as well, with even Wheeler County highlighting their fossil beds to attract visitors (which provided the name for the county seat, Fossil).
2008 presidential vote by census tract in Central Oregon
While much of Eastern Oregon is declining, Central Oregon is booming. Wheeler is an exception generally, with a shrinking total and white population, but all of the other three counties have growing white and nonwhite populations. Deschutes and Crook are among a minority of counties in the state where the white population is growing faster in raw numbers than the non-white population. While the Great Recession hit Central Oregon very hard, and downstate in general was lagging the Portland area in the recovery, Deschutes County is now back and booming like it was in the previous decade and should drive growth in the region. Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson have all seen a rise in number of registered voters and in actual voters. They tend to have decent turnout, but Wheeler had among the highest turnout in the state while Jefferson was in the bottom ten.
The three smaller counties have all had Republican trends in various levels of strength, but Deschutes has had a strong trend favoring Democrats in registration recently, and a lesser trend in becoming more competitive for Democrats in actual voting. While Barack Obama came within a hair of winning the county in 2008 and Ron Wyden similarly came even closer in 2010, Jeff Merkley won it in 2014. While Bend has trended Democratic (and some smaller communities in the region as well), its state house district has only elected a Democrat once in recent years, in 2008. Since then despite often voting for Democrats at the top of the ticket, it has still voted Republican for the legislature.
Major party presidential vote in elections 1960-2012
Bend’s Democratic trend is not terribly strong: it voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004, but narrowly, and still ending up about D+1. In 2008 it was D+4, going for Barack Obama by double digits in 2008, but 2012 made that look like an overperformance, given he only won by about 8 points and making it about D+2. Still given Romney did well in white and wealthy areas, 2012 may have been a slight Republican overperformance. The following chart shows the Democratic share of the two party vote in recent presidential elections from the counties and some cities (or precincts they're in if they do not have their own).
The rest of the region has tended to vote strongly Republican with a few exceptions. Barack Obama did win the city of Madras, the seat of Jefferson County, in 2008, and Jeff Merkley won it again this year. Another community in Jefferson County tends to vote strongly Democratic: Warm Springs is predominantly Native American and often gives over 80% of the vote to Democrats, though it also has relatively low turnout compared to almost every other community in the state. In Deschutes County Barack Obama won Blacke Butte in 2008, and Wyden did in 2010. President Obama lost the small city of Sisters in both of his elections, but both Kitzhaber and Merkley won it in 2014, and Ron Wyden did too in 2010. Other than that they've gone Republican in recent elections. Crook and Wheeler counties are both very Republican. House Minority Leader Mike McLane lives in Powell Butte, an unincorporated area in Crook County.
The following shows the same as the above, but for recent gubernatorial elections.
The Southeast
The Southeast is comprised of Lake, Harney, and Malheur counties. Lake County is bigger than New Jersey. Malheur County is bigger than New Hampshire. Harney County is bigger than Vermont. Altogether they had less than 47,000 people in 2010, and two thirds of those people were in Malheur County, nearly all clustered in a few settlements near the Idaho border. Lake County’s population is centered in the city of Lakeview in the south central part of the county, with smaller settlements in the east and north. Harney County’s population is nearly all in and around the city of Burns, in the north central part of the county. Malheur County’s population is nearly all within 20 miles of Idaho in the northern end of the county, in the communities of Vale, Nyssa, and Ontario. Ontario is across the Snake River from Payette, Idaho, Vale is just a little inland from there, and Nyssa is just south of Ontario. Lake County grew by 4-500 people from 2000-2010, while Malheur and Harney lost people, altogether seeing the region’s population slightly decline.
Several things can be noted about the region as a whole beyond the sparse population and vast ranges: timber and mining were once big but now are gone or a shadow of their former selves, ranching is dominant as an industry in many areas, and some of the oldest signs of human habitation in Oregon have been found in the region. This is the only region in Oregon I’ve never visited aside from passing through Malheur to go to Boise, though I flew over about a year ago and passed over the city of Burns. I recall the landscape as being a countless series of ridges and valleys, with mountains on the eastern horizon, and few signs of human civilization. Former Oregon Congressman Bob Smith is from Burns, and former Oregon Secretary of State Norma Paulus grew up there.
Demographically Lake and Harney counties are whiter and older (and whiter and older than average in the state), while Malheur among the youngest and more Hispanic/Latino. While Vale was only about 23% Hispanic/Latino in 2010, Ontario was over 41% and Nyssa over 60%. While only about 15% of the under 18 population in Harney County was not white in 2010, that number was nearly a quarter in Lake County and 53.6% in Malheur County. Additionally the white population outright dropped in Malheur and Harney counties from 2000 to 2010, while Lake was one of the minority of counties where the white population increased faster than the non-white.
Population Estimates in 2013
Oregon: 77.5% Non-Hispanic/Latino White Alone, 12.3% Hispanic/Latino
Harney: 88.2% White Alone, 4.6% Hispanic/Latino
Lake: 85.9% White Alone, 7.7% Hispanic/Latino
Malheur: 62.1% White Alone, 32.8% Hispanic/Latino
Malheur County has one of the highest poverty rates in the state. The other two are higher than average. All three have among the lowest median household incomes in the state. Oregon’s share of people 25 and older with bachelor’s degrees is 29.7%, but in these three counties that is in the teens (13.1-18.6%). Malheur County has the second lowest rate of adults with high school diplomas in the state, at just about 80%.
Adult rate of High School Diplomas - Bachelor Degrees – MHI – Poverty rate
Harney: 87.9% - 15.6% - $38,100 - 18.6%
Lake: 83.7% - 18.6% - $33,600 - 20.1%
Malheur: 80.4% - 13.1% - $35,600 - 27.4%
Economically these counties depend heavily on government employment, cattle ranching and shepherding, and agriculture. State correctional facilities in Ontario and Lakeview are major employers, and land management is as well, with most of Harney and Malheur being Bureau of Land Management lands, and nearly half in Lake County. Many of the corrections officers and other white workforce in Malheur County has fled to Idaho, though, and don’t live in Oregon. Mining and forestry were once more significant employers, but it looks like the lumber mill in Lakeview is the last in the region, and mining has dwindled like across most of the state. Steens Mountain in Harney County is a recreational attraction and has been subject to attempts to develop wind power.
Most of Malheur County and nearly all the people in it live in the same time zone as Idaho, not the Pacific as the rest of Oregon is. These people are far from the population centers of Oregon, Malheur isn’t in an Oregon-based media market, they’re more likely to cheer for out of state and non-Northwest baseball and basketball teams.
In terms of voter registration Republicans dominate the region, and I think last time I checked at least one county Democrats now number behind unaffiliated voters. The entire region has seen a decline in registered voters in recent years, though. Turnout differs dramatically across the region in both turnout of registered voters and all adults: Harney in 2014 was slightly better than the statewide average, but Lake had among the highest and Malheur the 2nd lowest turnout of registered voters in the state.
2008 presidential election estimation by census tract
Although Malheur County is likely to undergo significant change as it continues its demographic transition, the region has never been an area of strength for Democrats in any sense. Malheur County for one is one of only two counties that voted for Barry Goldwater out of the whole state. The following chart shows the votes cast for the two major party candidates in presidential elections in the region.
The next shows the Democratic share (by percentage) only in just recent elections, by county and some cities:
Finally, each county's vote in recent gubernatorial elections:
As you can see it is a heavily Republican region, and has been in all of recent history dating back decades. Given these numbers and history it is the most Republican region in the state for the entire period dating back to 1960.
Overview
Overall today there is not a Democratic trend in Eastern Oregon. It appears to be getting more Republican, if anything. There are potential explanations and signs of hope. The greatest generation is largely gone. The remaining seniors are mostly silent generation and older boomers. There are few young whites, who seem to be moving to the more urban areas of the state. There are big growing pockets of non-whites who disproportionately do not vote, for lack of ability or lack of interest. The booming region has a central city in Bend that is still just beginning to shift Democratic, and is now big enough that it's too big for just one state house district.
Major party presidential vote in Oregon east of the Cascades, 1960-2012
Eastern Oregon really has just about 4 state senate districts, the same as just the East side of Portland. The most populous county east of the Cascades was only about as big as Eugene was in 2010, and the second most is only about half the size of the city of Salem. The region is vastly less important than its size makes it appear, but it is still definitely important. Without it Republicans in Oregon would be about as irrelevant as Democrats are today in Utah. With it they can at least come close to power.
Just as there are a few pockets to give Republicans hope in Western Oregon there are a few in the East that can give Democrats hope in the short and long term. Long term Democrats could rise if the Hispanic/Latino and Native American populations rise up and vote, combined with the declining white populations in much of the region. Short term Hood River and Bend have been trending Democratic, and longer term that may be spreading to nearby communities. Other communities in the short term have Republican trends, and some of that may be temporary before demographics assert themselves (I'm looking at you, Morrow County), but others are more likely to continue. And some trends, like how Grant County trended Democratic in many elections lately, are largely irrelevant so long as for example Grant County is so damned Republican and not terribly populous.
We don't know that the trends will continue. John Kitzhaber seems to have done unusually poorly in many areas compared to other Democrats, Barack Obama unusually well in others. We'll have to see.