For a while now, the conventional wisdom of more moderate Republican pundits has held that a Supreme Court decision striking down gay marriage bans would help the slightly saner GOP candidates like Jeb Bush. The idea is that a pro-equality ruling will allow Republican candidates to simply say, it's over now, out of our hands. I don't support it personally, but we have to respect the decision of the courts.
But that viewpoint has always felt a touch too sanguine. Now Nia-Malika Henderson has a twist on that theory.
"If the Supreme Court acts as many are anticipating, it will not diffuse the issue. It will escalate all the more. It's more likely religious freedom could become the biggest wedge issue of the 2016 election," said Steve Deace, a conservative radio talk show host in Iowa. "Talking point answers simply won't play. Conservatives are looking for action and want to know what your record is on the issue."
Social conservatives aren't going to go down without a fight and someone like Sen. Ted Cruz will do everything in his power to harness that energy. But whether a Ted Cruz or a Jeb Bush wins the nomination, Henderson points out that they will have to contend with the Republican Party platform, which still says, "the union of one man and one woman must be upheld as the national standard, a goal to stand for, encourage, and promote through laws governing marriage."
That's a problem in the general election when around 60 percent of Americans now support marriage equality and those who "strongly" favor it (40 percent) have far surpassed those who "strongly" oppose it (25 percent). It's also become a basic question of modernity for young voters, who twice helped elect Barack Obama president. In the wake of 2008 and 2012, it's hard to imagine a candidate winning the White House without them. And as much as Ted Cruz might like it, Liberty University won't be able to force young people to the polls like it forced attendance at his big campaign announcement. Sorry, Ted.