Science (Science 17 April 2015: Vol. 348 no. 6232 pp. 327-331
DOI:10.1126/science.aaa0940) just published a disturbing scientific evaluation of the accelerating melting of the ANT-Arctic. The summary is below.
The floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet restrain the grounded ice-sheet flow. Thinning of an ice shelf reduces this effect, leading to an increase in ice discharge to the ocean. Using 18 years of continuous satellite radar altimeter observations, we have computed decadal-scale changes in ice-shelf thickness around the Antarctic continent. Overall, average ice-shelf volume change accelerated from negligible loss at 25 ± 64 cubic kilometers per year for 1994–2003 to rapid loss of 310 ± 74 cubic kilometers per year for 2003–2012. West Antarctic losses increased by ~70% in the past decade, and earlier volume gain by East Antarctic ice shelves ceased. In the Amundsen and Bellingshausen regions, some ice shelves have lost up to 18% of their thickness in less than two decades. (my bold)
Proceed below the tidal tsunami to read an Informed Chicken Little assessment of how
really bad this is.
Past the previous worst case scenario. Note the 'Lag time'. The article was received for publication 17 October 2014, then accepted for publication 11 March 2015. This is pretty shrieking fast as far as science is concerned. Now it is out there. The research will be reviewed, discussed and more deeply studied relative to other research over the next year. Yet it is nigh impossible to refute these findings.
NOTHING WILL BE DONE nor will anything likely be proposed be 'done', at minimum for another 3-4 years, because denial is deeply rooted among religious and political extremists. They will last longer that the ANT-Arctic ice. Even though the findings of this report should be effing terrifying to anyone capable of rational thought, very few American humans possess that capability. (a majority still question climate disruption exists)
Here is why 'leaders' should shit themselves: In the time that first and successive estimates of melt were made, there was noted some acceleration of melt. Accordingly, models and expectations were updated reflecting those finding. We are now way past those updated modelings in a geological nanosecond.
From what we now know of previous warming cycles, the changes were much more prolonged; in the thousands or tens of thousands of years. Given the rate of acceleration observed in less than 20 years, it is entirely reasonable to conclude we are NOW in RUNAWAY warming. Now.
Goodbye Miami: 2020
Goodbye Florida: 2050?
With our carbon emissions vastly outstripping the absorption potential, and the continued destruction of earth's absorption potential (forests and oceans) the planet will undoubtedly continue to accelerate heating. The only question now is: how much past +4 degrees Celsius can life on earth exist?
What were you saying about ISIL?
1:35 PM PT: Astute commentators discerned my panic in authoring this diary which incorrectly refers to the affected polar region as the 'Arctic', when it is, the antipodal, the 'Antarctic' which as stated in the cited study shown in the quoted section.
Alas, as I child, I referred to jelly as jam but now I realize it's a jam we're in and thank the observant and ever so courteous Kossacks for calming my still jelly fingers.
Peace!