Fighting it to the end.
Thanks to 14 Democrats joining all-but-five Senate Republicans in approving fast-track trade legislation last week, it's now up to the House, which is where most close observers have figured the bigger fight would always be. Representatives could take up the issue as early as next week.
The vote is uncertain. The vast majority of House Democrats are opposed. But speculation about how many Democrats will join the majority of Republicans is now putting that number as high as 25. It was as low as 10 three weeks ago and has been steadily creeping upward, no doubt in part due to the jaw-boning and arm-twisting coming from the White House, which has been pushing fast-tracking for the past two years.
On the other side of the aisle, there are perhaps as many as 45 Republicans in opposition to fast-tracking, most of them in the tea party-ish House Freedom Caucus. But, the exact number is fluid. Add the 176 or so Democrats said still to be in opposition to the estimated 45 or so Republicans also said to be opposed, and at 220 total there's barely enough to defeat the legislation. Less than a handful needs to be moved into the "aye" camp, assuming those estimates of who's in favor and who's not are accurate. The GOP leadership thinks they can squeak by. Victoria Guida reports:
[Republican House Ways and Means Chairman Paul] Ryan and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) are increasingly confident that they can limit the conservative defections to those who have already declared their opposition, House Republican aides said.
“I don’t think they’re saying they’ve got [enough support to pass the bill], but they’ve opened a path to get it,” one of the aides said. “I don’t think there are all that many undecided. It’s a question of people whose minds might be able to be changed.”
Ryan, who has been leading the charge in favor of giving Obama fast-track authority, has been working to keep outside conservative groups like Club for Growth and The Heritage Foundation from lobbying against the bill. But the Republican opposition has succeeded in throwing its passage into doubt.
Fast-tracking, known formally as Trade Promotion Authority, would give the president negotiating authority over the Trans-Pacific Partnership among 12 Pacific Rim nations, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States and the European Union, and any other trade agreements that come up in the next three to six years. Congress could review any trade agreement negotiated under TPA, but could not filibuster or amend it in any way. That's a complaint of opponents, some of whom say this confers too much authority on the executive branch and others who argue that it doesn't allow a proper assessment of provisions enforcing fair labor and environmental standards, something that has tainted earlier trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement signed more than two decades ago.
The only safe prediction that can be made right now about the outcome is that the vote likely will be exceedingly close.
Please join us in signing and sending a petition to House members asking them to reject fast-track legislation.