Two congressman are considering a primary challenge against John McCain
Leading Off:
• AZ-Sen: Not-so-great news... for John McCain! The senator is likely to seek a sixth term, but his many enemies within the Republican Party are committed to denying him renomination. McCain easily turned back a disorganized challenge from former Rep. J.D. Hayorth in 2010, but this time it looks like he'll draw a tougher foe: Tea party-scented Reps. Matt Salmon and David Schweikert are both considering a Senate bid. However, if McCain had any hope that they would both run and split the anti-McCain vote, he can think again. The Hill tells us that Salmon and Schweikert are very close and they've decided that only one of them will go for a promotion.
The two are looking over polling data and thinking over their options, and it looks probable that one of them will take the leap. Right now, it appears that Salmon is the more interested of the two in taking on McCain. Salmon has far more money available than Schweikert, which would allow him to hit the ground running; Salmon also was the GOP gubernatorial nominee back in 2002, so there's no doubt that he has ambition. Both Salmon and Schweikert's seats are safely red, so House Democrats won't benefit if either one leaves. But if Arizona Democrats want a shot at flipping this Senate seat, they wouldn't mind it at all if the GOP had to go through a long and nasty primary.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris continues to roll out endorsement after endorsement as she tries to deter other candidates from running. San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee is the latest prominent politician to back Harris, who also comes from SF.
• OH-Sen: Well, maybe Rep. Tim Ryan really is serious about running for Senate this time. Ryan has been one of the more anti-abortion members of the Democratic caucus for a while, and he's one of only 12 remaining members to vote for the Stupak Amendment. Ryan's position never caused him any trouble at home, with him easily winning re-nomination each cycle, but it could definitely be a liability in a statewide Democratic primary.
So it's interesting that Ryan just published an editorial explaining why he's moved to the left on abortion, explaining, "I have come to believe that we must trust women and families — not politicians — to make the best decision for their lives." Ryan says this piece has nothing to do with his political ambitions but it's definitely very interesting timing. It's also worth noting that the congressman also voted against a recent GOP anti-abortion bill. Ryan recently said that he'll decide if he'll challenge Republican Sen. Rob Portman "in the next month," so we won't need to read the tea leaves for much longer.
• Senate: Are you tired of dealing with dozens of senators who just won't say anything about their re-election plans? Apparently, so is the Roll Call team: They just surveyed every senator up in 2016 to find out their intentions. Most of them said that they were "planning to run," which isn't a definite yes but is a lot better than nothing.
A few members were a little more ambiguous. Indiana Republican Dan Coats admitted he hadn't made a decision, but is laying the groundwork to run. North Dakota Republican John Hoeven stated that he expects to run "at this point." South Dakota Republican John Thune also said "people should assume that," he's in, though he won't be deciding until later in the year. Maryland Democrat Barbara Mikulski did not respond, but her colleague Ben Cardin is convinced she'll seek another term.
Some members did make it very clear that they're running again though. The most notable is Alabama Republican Richard Shelby, who at 80 was the subject of the occasional retirement rumor. But Shelby enthusiastically told Roll Call "I'm in!" Shelby has a massive $18 million warchest that will probably deter any serious primary or general election foes, so this is probably the last we'll hear about his race.
Gubernatorial:
• MO-Gov: On Wednesday, Republican state Auditor Tom Schweich announced that he would run for governor in 2016's open-seat race. Schweich, who served as chief-of-staff to former U.N. Ambassador (and former Missouri senator) John Danforth and as a high-ranking official in George W. Bush's State Department, has been flirting with a run for higher office for a while. Schweich considering campaigns for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012, as well as a gubernatorial run in 2012. Schweich is finally going for a promotion this time, and if he fails, he'll still be auditor for at least another two years.
Schweich will take on former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway in the primary. Both of them start out with comparable warchests but Hanaway is largely being bankrolled by one man, conservative mega-donor Rex Sinquefield. The Show Me State has no contribution limits so Sinquefield can throw as much cash in Hanaway's direction as he feels. Schweich is well-connected though, and he should have the resources he needs.
Schweich and Hanaway may not have the primary field to themselves. Businessman and 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner may jump in, and he'll also have the money to compete here. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer also talked about running back in May, though he hasn't said much publicly about his 2016 plans since then. Former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens is also a potential candidate, but he'll need a lot to go right for him to have a shot. We'll see if Schweich's announcement leads any of these possible contenders, or anyone else privately mulling a bid, to make a decision any sooner.
The winner of the Republican primary is likely to take on Attorney General Chris Koster, who so far has a very easy path to the Democratic nomination. Missouri has become increasingly hostile to national Democrats in the last few cycles but Team Blue still holds most statewide offices; we should be in for quite a race.
• NC-Gov: It's that magical time in the season when candidates want donors and activists to know that they're running, but won't officially announce it. Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper has been preparing for a while to challenge Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016, and he pretty much removed any ambiguity about his plans on Tuesday.
Cooper told WNCN that he's "certainly planning" to run says it's "too early" to announce. Whatever dude, just don't expect us to care when you finally decide it's the exact right moment to reveal what we already know. Right now no notable Democrats (officially declared or otherwise) are challenging Cooper. Former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker launched a statewide listening tour last March in preparation for a likely run, but he's been pretty quiet since then.
House:
• NY-13: On Tuesday, state Assembly Democrats finally forced Speaker Sheldon Silver to step aside in the wake of corruption charges. Several members quickly threw their hats in the ring for the Feb. 10 leadership contest to replace Silver and for a few hours, Assemblyman Keith Wright was one of them. Had Wright actually become speaker, he would have been out of the running to replace Rep. Charlie Rangel (assuming Rangel follows through on his promise to retire at the end of this term). But on Wednesday night, Wright announced that he was withdrawing from the speaker's race and backing Assemblyman Carl Heastie instead.
This whole experience may leave Wright better positioned in the congressional primary though, assuming he runs as expected. Wright is the Manhattan Democratic Party chair; while his home borough makes up most of the primary electorate, a considerable portion of the Bronx is in the 13th District. Wright will want to make some inroads in the Bronx, and its party chair just happens to be one Carl Heastie. Wright's decision to back Heastie for speaker guarantees nothing, but there's little question that Wright had NY-13 on his mind when he made his endorsement.
Right now only former Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV is running in the Democratic primary, which is tantamount to election in this very blue seat. But he's not going to be the only one going after this district. Aside from Wright, other potential contenders include state Sen. Adriano Espaillat (who came very close to winning this seat in both 2012 and 2014); state Sen. Bill Perkins; former-Gov. David Paterson; pastor and 2014 candidate Mike Walrond; City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito; Councilor Inez Dickens; and former DNC political director and 2012 candidate Clyde Williams.
Other Races:
• 2015: This year will bring us three gubernatorial races, plenty of big-city mayoral races, and the inevitable congressional special election or two. To help keep track of all the competitive races, we've introducing out 2015 election calendar. You can check out our sheet directly here with information about poll closing times included. This calendar will be updated throughout the year as new races come onto the radar.
• Wichita Mayor: Democratic Mayor Carl Brewer is leaving office this year, and we have a competitive race to succeed him. Filing closed for this non-partisan race on Tuesday, and 10 candidates are running. The primary will be held March 3, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to the April 7 general.
Currently, Democratic Councilor Lavonta Williams, Republican Councilor Jeff Longwell, and Republican businessman Sam Williams look like the frontrunners. Jennifer Winn is also running: The hemp activist was last seen taking 37 percent of the vote against Gov. Sam Brownback in last year's GOP primary, but it would be a surprise if she ended up in the mayor's office when all is said and done. Wichita is one of the more Democratic areas of Kansas but it's still pretty conservative for a big city, and either party could prevail here in April.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: John T. Myers, who was a Republican U.S. House member from Indiana from 1967 to 1997, died Tuesday at age 87. Usually, when a congressman serves for 30 years, there's something remarkable about him that gets recounted: major legislation, a committee that he chaired, well-known controversial stands, or if nothing else, a scandal or other ignominious end. On the surface there doesn't seem to be anything like that for Myers, who provided three decades of reliable conservative votes from the back bench.
However, Myers almost had his shot at becoming the first Republican chair of the Appropriations Committee in 40 years. When the GOP took the House in the 1994 wave, Myers was in line to head this powerful committee. But the chamber's new Speaker Newt Gingrich was no fan of the seniority system, and he had little incentive to let someone like Myers take such a coveted post when he could give it to one of his people instead. Gingrich snubbed the Hoosier, and put the more junior Bob Livingston in charge. It's probably not a coincidence that Myers retired soon afterwards, perhaps deciding that being an obscure member of the majority was even worse than serving as an obscure member of the minority.
• Great Mentioner: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to kick off a new series looking at all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races.
We begin in Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is going to be one of the GOP's top targets. Centennial State Republicans are energized by their victory over Mark Udall last year and several potential candidates are thinking about jumping in. Rep. Mike Coffman looks like he's at the top of the NRSC's wish list but he's far from the only one who could run: Check out our post for more.
• Polarization: Usually when you see polarization discussed, it's from the poli sci perspective, but Thomas Edsall's fascinating new column gives an overview of recent research on the topic from the "softer" social sciences, social psychology and sociology. The common thread among these studies is one that we try and make regularly at Daily Kos Elections: that voting decisions are usually made along "tribal" lines—needing to belong to the right team that reflects your place in the world—than based on rational decisions about policy.
Old cues that used to divide us by political party, like region, religion, or profession, just don't have the same impact any more. The economy is more contingent now, people increasingly sort geographically based on worldview rather than for economic reasons, and geography isn't even that important anyway, given that people increasingly take their cues from social media and other highly segmented mass media channels. And increasingly, scientists are realizing that worldview may in fact be more nature than nurture; some of the studies that Edsall discusses show that liberal and conservative brains simply work differently.
• Votes: Lawmakers probably don't spend much time worrying about their DW-Nominate scores (or other non-partisan aggregators like National Journal), but when it's an organization keeping the score that also has the power to spend a lot of money in primaries and summon herds of flying monkeys to vote in primaries, they get a little more agitated. That was on display at a recent Republican Study Committee meeting, as reported by Politico.
Members of the RSC actually pushed back against Heritage Action's scoring, which has gotten so inflexible as to penalize against voting for must-haves, like last year's farm bill. Whether this actually leads to a break with Heritage (or Heritage dialing things down) remains to be seen, but it's still amusing to see members of the GOP's right flank attacking Heritage for setting impossible purity standards. The Washington Post's Aaron Blake adds some context by going into more detail about just how pure Heritage's scores are, maybe most famously that the House's poster boy for austerity, Paul Ryan, still gets only a 58 according to their inflated standards.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.