The evolution of the state of Virginia turning from a reliable red state in 2004 to a solid blue state in statewide federal and state elections would make Charles Darwin proud. In 2004, the GOP dominated elections in the Old Dominion and in the 2004 presidential election, George Bush coasted to a 9 point victory and secured Virginia's 13 electoral votes.
But starting in 2008, Democrats have dominated statewide races in the state, delivering the states 13 electoral votes to President in 2008 and 2012, winning both U. S. Senate seats, and sweeping all three statewide races in 2013. So why does the GOP, in a state clearly trending blue, have a stranglehold on the state’s congressional delegation, holding eight seats to the Democrats’ three?
Good question, huh? But the answer is pretty simple - redistricting. But Virginia's redistricting plan passed in 2011 has been turned on it's head after a panel of federal judges ruled in October of 2014 that the Republican-led Legislature’s decision to pack African-American voters into the 3rd Congressional District, which is represented by Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott, was motivated purely by race — a violation of the 14th Amendment. What a surprise.
http://thinkprogress.org/...
The Virginia court ruling striking down the state’s map based on race has put the commonwealth in the spotlight because of the potential to boost Democrats in other states as well.
“The Virginia case is so important because it tells government decision makers how to evaluate the use of race in the redistricting process,” said Justin Levitt, a redistricting expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, who also worked as the Democratic National Committee’s National Voter Protection counsel in 2008.
Levitt added that the divided government in Virginia with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling the Legislature opens up the real possibility for revisions to the map that might be more in line with a string of recent Democratic victories in close statewide races: The contests for Virginia’s 13 electoral votes in the presidential race have mirrored the national popular vote in the past two elections. The state’s Senate races in 2014 and 2012 were among the closest in the country. The 2013 governor’s race was decided by fewer than 3 points, and its attorney general, Democrat Mark Herring, was elected only after a protracted recount.
But we all know that Virginia is not an anomaly when it comes to issues to redistricting:
The dichotomy between statewide offices and the congressional delegation is a familiar story for Democrats. As a result of population patterns and gerrymandering, Democrats find themselves in the minority in the congressional delegations in other swing states. President Obama has won Florida twice, but Republicans hold 17 of 27 House seats. In Ohio, the GOP controls 12 of 16 seats. In Pennsylvania, it’s 13 of 18.
The Virginia case has since been appealed so the question of whether or not some districts in Virginia will be redrawn to benefit Democrats is still up in the air but could be impacted by a case from Alabama, which is currently before the U. S. Supreme Court.
But if the districts are redrawn, Democrats will have an opportunity to push for new district lines that could make at least two districts in Virginia, the 2nd and 4th, located in the southeastern part of the state and represented by two GOP congressman, more competitive once some of the black population from Scott’s district is shifted out of his district.
But the GOP may try to limit the impact in the event the decision by the court is upheld:
Republicans might try to mitigate potential Democratic gains in the districts held by Rigell and Forbes by moving black voters to the 7th District instead, a solidly conservative district now represented by GOP Rep. Dave Brat, who defeated then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a Republican primary last year and took office in a special election after Cantor resigned. Brat might not have the seniority and influence in the state to keep Virginia’s GOP leadership from making his district more Democratic.
When asked about that scenario, Brat said after a long pause: “I don’t think we know anything yet. It’s all in flux. There’s no ‘it’ yet to be concerned about.”
Some Dems in the state believe a standoff between McAuliffe and the Republicans in the state Legislature over what to do with the districts is likely and that would lead to the redistricting process being taken over by the courts to resolve.
Meanwhile, in the midst of this court ruling, there has actually been significant bipartisan movement towards redistricting reform:
The potential remap comes amid a broader, nonpartisan push for redistricting reform in Virginia. Groups like OneVirginia2021 and the bipartisan ethics commission appointed by McAullife in the wake of the corruption case against former GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell hope to draw a more competitive map in the future.
“Virginia is one of the most gerrymandered states in the country,” argued Greg Lucyk, president of the board of directors for OneVirginia2021. “The districts make legislative elections a meaningless exercise.”
Even Bill Bolling, a former GOP lieutenant governor who is co-chair of the ethics commission, is pushing for a more bipartisan process of drawing the state’s congressional map. “I think there is a concern in the state — and a legitimate concern — as a result of the last redistricting process that we have very few districts that are competitive,” said Bolling, who decried the rightward tilt of the Virginia GOP after being pushed out of the 2013 governor’s race by the more conservative Ken Cuccinelli.
Bolling’s commission passed a set of recommendations calling on governor and Legislature to work together to create nonpartisan districts within 10 business days of the General Assembly convening its 2015 regular session on Jan. 14. It also pushed the Legislature to amend the commonwealth’s constitution to create an independent redistricting commission before 2020.
I'm not sure where this bipartisan plan for redistricting will go. And legislative races set for the state this fall, where Dems will be trying to take control back in the state senate, may have an impact.
Watching the process play out in Virginia is going to be fascinating and has the potential to impact so many other states so we all need to keep an eye on these cases and see where they go. It's really our only hope of taking back the House by 2020.
http://www.politico.com/...