Results: Australian Broadcasting Corporation l Queensland Electoral Commission
Hot links: Crikey Poll Bludger l ABC News Live Video Feed l ehstronghold's seat election day ratings
Fri Jan 30, 2015 at 11:45 PM PT: Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections' "official unofficial" live blog of the Queensland state election in Australia. Polls are set to close in Queensland at the top of the hour.
It is expected that the first term LNP (Liberal National Party) state government which was swept into power in 2012 will win a second term, but an upset by Labor which was reduced to less than 7 seats in the 89 seats Queensland parliament after the 2012 election cannot be discounted.
Especially if this Galaxy exit poll is somehow correct:
12:02 AM PT: Polls have now officially closed in Queensland. Usually the first results should be coming in 15 minutes after the polls close. Also ABC has not lifted the geoblock on their video feed yet even though they have done so whenever there is an election in Australia. Hopefully the geoblock gets lifted soon.
12:07 AM PT: Both Galaxy and ReachTEL have released exit polls for Premier Campbell Newman's seat of Ashgrove. Both Galaxy and ReachTEL show Labor candidate Kate Jones leading Newman 56-44% after preferences.
12:17 AM PT: While we're waiting for ABC to lift their geoblock (or if they are even going to), you can listen to ABC's radio coverage which is not geoblocked.
http://www.abc.net.au/...
12:19 AM PT:
Cook is held by the LNP by only a 3.4% margin.
12:25 AM PT: First results coming in. LNP leading in 9 seats. Labor 2. Too early to predict anything yet.
12:32 AM PT: It looks like ABC won't turn the geoblock off their live feed, but 9News has turned off the geoblock on their live feed. So go to the link below to watch live coverage:
http://www.9news.com.au/
12:37 AM PT: LNP leading in 19 seats. Labor leading in 11 seats. Labor leading in the LNP seats of Mirani (11.2%), Ipswich West (7.2%), Ipswich (4.2%).
12:41 AM PT: Peter Beattie on 9News: Not all absentee votes will be counted tonight. Also half a million people voted absentee.
12:45 AM PT: LNP leading in 21 seats. Labor 17.
Statewide primary vote:
LNP: 42.7% (-7.2)
Labor: 33.3 (+6.6)
Greens: 6.0 (-1.6)
Palmer United: 6.7 (+6.7)
Other: 11.5 (-4.6)
12:51 AM PT: In the safe seat of Lockyer, Pauline Hanson who's infamously known in Australian politics as a batshit racist is trying to make a political comeback. LNP's Ian Rickuss is currently leading the primary vote with 35.7% and Hanson with 28.0%.
Labor's candidate is behind at 17.5%. Rickuss shouldn't be in too much trouble especially since Labor's commentators on 9News said that they will be preference Hanson last.
12:54 AM PT: ABC is projecting Labor will pick up the LNP seat of Mirani with 11 out of 54 of the booths in.
12:56 AM PT: ABC projecting Labor will win back the seat of Ipswich West.
12:59 AM PT: 11.5% of the vote counted in Police Minister Jack Dempsey's seat of Bundaberg. Labor is currently leading in the seat. I'm not sure if that holds, but Bundaberg was an ancestral Labor held seat until 2006 when Dempsey won it.
http://www.abc.net.au/...
1:02 AM PT: Here comes the first results from Campbell Newman's seat of Ashgrove!
Primary vote:
Kate Jones (Labor): 48%
Campbell Newman (LNP): 38.1%
Robert Hogg (Greens): 11.3%
Two party preferred: Jones leading 58.3-41.7%
1:05 AM PT: ABC projecting Labor winning the following seats: Cairns, Capalaba, Gladstone, Ipwsich West, Kallangur, Lytton, Mirani, Nudgee.
Labor leading or won in 36 seats. LNP 33 seats.
1:08 AM PT: Labor MP Jackie Trad reporting a 25% swing in two booths in the LNP held seat of Pine Rivers. Peter Beattie is also reporting the outer Brisbane seats are "coming back" to Labor. Whatever that means.
1:11 AM PT: 9News projecting Labor will win back the seat of Cook. Labor's candidate Billy Gordon will be the first Aboriginal member in Queensland parliament.
Also 9News projecting Labor will win back the seat of Gladstone which was held by independent MP Liz Cunningham since 1992.
1:14 AM PT: Peter Beattie is currently giving John Paul Langbroek a backhanded complement saying if Langbroek had not been replaced by Campbell Newman as LNP leader in 2012 Langbroek would be premier anyway and the LNP might have been in better shape.
1:16 AM PT: Labor leading or won 40 seats. LNP 35. LNP is leading Labor only by 39.9-38.0% in the statewide primary vote.
12% of the vote counted statewide.
1:18 AM PT: ABC projecting Premier Campbell Newman will lose his seat of Ashgrove to Kate Jones. As Clive Palmer likes to say, "Goodbye Campbell Newman!"
1:20 AM PT: Labor at 42 seats. LNP at 36. You need 45 seats for a majority government and Labor is getting very close to it. Of course only 16.3% of the vote is in.
1:27 AM PT: 10.3% of the vote in the Gold Coast seat of Broadwater is in. Labor's Penny Toland is narrowly leading LNP MP Verity Barton 51.1-48.9% of the vote.
Verity Barton wounded up in hot water during the campaign after it was revealed she had her driving license suspended twice for drunk driving. Also there was chatter before the campaign of Barton being removed as the LNP candidate.
Ironically enough Barton only wound up as the LNP candidate in 2012 after the two previous LNP candidates were removed for either attending a swinger's cruise and drunk driving!
1:36 AM PT: LNP MP David Crisafulli says "a lot of good people" will be out of work tonight. Does that include the 20,000 public sector workers the LNP sacked when they won government in 2012?
1:38 AM PT: Okay so ABC has finally lifted the geoblock on their live video feed. Watch here if you want:
http://www.abc.net.au/...
1:44 AM PT: Antony Green is saying if Labor is winning seats north of Brisbane like Pine Rivers and Kallangur, Labor is very close to winning government.
1:47 AM PT: The LNP seat of Maryborough is showing a three/four race between the LNP, Labor, Palmer United and Independent Chris Foley.
The primary vote in this seat is:
LNP: 29.8%
Labor 25.1%
Palmer United: 12.7%
Independent (Chris Foley): 21.7%
Others: 10.7%
1:49 AM PT: ABC now showing Labor winning or leading in 44 seats, LNP 34. You need 45 for a majority government. Also Labor is leading the LNP by 0.2% on the statewide primary vote.
1:55 AM PT: Antony Green is saying on current figures that Labor will win majority government, but Green himself isn't sure what's going to happen at the end of the night. He says that absentee votes will determine the outcome.
2:01 AM PT: At this stage of the night the following seats are still in play: Albert, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Toowoomba North and Whitsunday. Labor needs to win two of those seats to win majority government.
Labor are currently leading in Albert, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney and Toowoomba North.
2:15 AM PT: A slight correction to my last post. Labor would actually have to get to 46 seats to win a majority government because if a Labor MP is elected Speaker of the Queensland parliament, they cannot vote.
Although if Labor can convince Independent MP Peter Wellington to throw his hat in for the Speaker's position, Labor can hold a majority government with 45 seats. Wellington did back a Labor minority government after the 1998 election.....
2:21 AM PT: 9News reporting that LNP party figures believe they have lost government.
2:24 AM PT: 54% of the vote counted statewide. Labor leading or has won 40 seats. LNP 39. LNP leading Labor in the statewide primary vote 40.1-38.6%.
Treasurer Tim Nicholls also said that Campbell Newman called Kate Jones to concede his seat.
2:50 AM PT: Kate Jones - the woman who has made Australian political history tonight by defeating a sitting Premier:
2:58 AM PT: Antony Green projects a majority Labor government. I just have to say this is quite remarkable. Also thank you Tony Abbott for making #OneTermNewman a reality. I can't wait to see #OneTermTony become a reality next year (if Abbott can keep his job until next year).
3:07 AM PT: Here's a list of seats that have not been called by the ABC:
The most surprising seat on that list of Glass House which is on the Sunshine Coast which has been a traditional LNP stronghold. Labor did win Glass House in 2001 and held it until 2009 when redistricting made the seat less friendly for Labor.
3:35 AM PT: Campbell Newman concedes. Says that tonight is the end of his political career.
3:48 AM PT: Yes please:
4:00 AM PT: Last update for tonight. Like 2012 I'm just completely floored by the results. It'll be interesting how tonight will play out both in Brisbane and Canberra in the next few days.