that was taken by NBC/WSJ almost exactly this time four years ago. http://www.nbcnews.com/...
And we know how that worked out.
It's amazing to see pundits and journalists foaming over polls showing Carson and Trump leading Republican candidates more than a year out from the election, and ignoring that history shows those front runner positions, at this point in the "cycle," are almost completely irrelevant to the eventual nominee.
Because it's become routine for the Stupid Wing (low info Tea Party base) of the Republican coalition, to tell pollsters which candidate they "like," as an expression of their own "thoughts" (using the term loosely) rather than which candidate those voters expect to be nominated, or will actually show up and pull the lever for.
Obviously the media need to fill commercial airtime with faux drama, but from a mere "common sense" point of view regarding modern Republicans, many of whom I grew up with and still know, it's safe to say the majority are not (in our lifetime) gonna vote for "the black guy," in a Presidential election (or even primary, when it really counts).
See: Barack Obama (for Republican reaction to a politician with some pigment occupying "their" White House).
Of course it could be an entirely different Republican Party this year, for the first time ever.
But it won't be.
Even though this year's Eccentric Black Guy Who Says Stuff Only Stupid White People Normally Say candidate, is becoming weirdly routine. We've now witnessed Keyes, Cain, and Carson, with a new model every election.
Not that some Republicans are cynically "playing the race card," by pretending to be "for" some dude entirely unqualified to be President, and three beers short of a six pack in general knowledge, just cuz he's black. But if we're lucky, with Obama leaving the scene, we may be spared this embarrassing phenomena next time.
And Carson may well win Iowa (as Mike Huckabee did) proving once again that winning Iowa caucuses is a good idea if you're running for President of the local strip mall Mega Church, but not so much if you're running for President of the USA. That may be the last we hear of him.
Trump may be some Frankenstein hybred of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ross Perot, and pull out New Hampshire, but the novelty is already wearing thin.
Which is exactly what the Republican Presidential "front runners" tend to be at this point in every election.
Novelty candidates.
Sacrificial mouthpieces for ideas that nobody with a chance of winning can actually say out loud. Or in other words, the true crazy of most Republicans when they're hanging out with each other. (Trump is actually taking this role to a new low, though we may see even worse in coming elections, as demographics change, and white middle America feels even more threatened).
A large part of the "base" realizes they can't win a national election with these zombies, but they LOVE hearing wingnut mythology parroted on national TV, and watching their guys "leading the Republican polls."
They show up for their rallies, put bumper stickers on trucks, and breathlessly call in to talk radio while they can, because these novelty candidates are proxies for their own moronic beliefs that the "mainstream media" conspires against, and once every four years they get their big chance to vomit those beliefs all over America.
And then many of those same people, the Republican base voters are who still functional enough to know the general public won't vote who they SHOULD vote for, join the Country Club wing, and vote for a McCain or Romney (or Rubio?) when it really matters.
By summer vacation, the "establishment" candidate magically takes the lead.
So the next Republican Presidential candidate was in the Krazy Klown line-up last night (the "debate") but it's not likely to be one of the two "front runners."
And that should be discomforting for Democrats.
As we spill our popcorn laughing at the circus, Dems should be mindful of the "fake front runner" (FFR) phenomena the Republican Party has spawned, and realize it's become a transparently routine charade.
Republicans will eventually nominate somebody who will win at least 20 or 30 states in the next election, even though the guy (yes, sorry Fiorina) will be a certifiable jackass.
The Presidential election won't be a national cakewalk for Dems, because it never is in this country, with the ridiculous Electoral College, and the most depressingly ignorant and bigoted voters in the Western World.
There WILL most likely be a Bush or a Rubio (or both) in our futures a year from now.
They will go on to win Texas, and possibly Florida, and the election will be closer than anyone around here now wants to imagine.
If they get Ohio (Kasich as VP?) they probably win.
Trump and Carson, the "protest" mouthpieces for The Stupid at this point, will gradually disappear, as they always do, when the electable "establishment" candidates take control.
We're only three or four months away from that becoming obvious once again. Democrats need to prepare, stop fighting each other, and focus on a deadly 2016 Presidential election ahead. One that Dems either win, and halt the wingnut agenda, or lose, and the country (and the planet) as we've known it, will be damaged for... a long time.
Laugh while you can. It's about to get serious.