Harry Reid, a former boxers, shows he can still take a punch
Potential candidates are constantly getting "mentioned" for higher office, but who's doing all that work? Why, the Great Mentioner, of course. In this new ongoing series, Daily Kos channels the Great Mentioner and catalogs all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races.
Harry Reid, the longtime top Democratic dog in the Senate who just got downgraded to minority leader status, is no stranger to tough races, and he's in for another in 2016. Despite—or perhaps because of—his long tenure, Reid hasn't been popular in the Silver State for many years, and Republicans are hoping to capitalize. With the exception of Colorado's Michael Bennet, who we covered in an earlier post, Senate Republicans don't have any other good offensive opportunities in 2016, and we expect them to work hard to unseat Reid.
But Reid, who was once an amateur boxer, will not go down easily. The GOP thought he was a goner back in 2010 but Reid proved them wrong. The senator found ways to keep his strongest potential opponents out of the race and relentlessly hammered his eventual opponent Sharron Angle as the nutcase she was. Team Red will work hard to ensure that they don't nominate another flawed candidate like Angle, but all of Reid's would-be rivals know that if they run, they'll be in for a bruising campaign.
There's no doubt whom national Republicans want as their standard bearer. The NRSC is doing everything they can to enlist popular Gov. Brian Sandoval, who just won re-election by a 71-24 margin. If Sandoval ran, Reid would almost certainly start out as the underdog, but that's a big "if." The governor hasn't ruled out anything and probably won't make a final decision for a few months, but he just doesn't sound interested in going to the Senate. Republicans will do everything they can to persuade him otherwise and won't stop until they get a firm no, but it would be a huge surprise if Sandoval left the job he enjoys to go to Washington.
Since the GOP will almost certainly need someone else, they do have a few backup options. Las Vegas Councilor Bob Beers has already entered the race, but despite his awesome name, almost no one outside the Beers household is excited about him. Former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki is much higher on the totem poll, and he's admitted his interest. Krolicki tried running for this seat in the 2010 cycle, but his campaign was derailed after he was indicted for allegedly misappropriating public funds. The charges were thrown out, however, and Krolicki easily won re-election in 2010, suggesting that he didn't take much of a reputational hit.
Please read below the fold for more on this story.
Republican operatives also say that current Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison and state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson are looking at this contest, though like Krolicki, they're waiting to see what Sandoval does first. Hutchison has a reputation as a great fundraiser and a tough campaigner, and he won his first statewide election by a convincing 59-34 margin. However, he seems more interested in running for governor in 2018, when Sandoval will be termed out.
Roberson, meanwhile, is a relatively moderate Republican, which could cause problems in a primary. Roberson beat back a conservative primary challenge by a relatively soft 59-41 last year, and plenty of tea party groups would go after him if he ran statewide. But Roberson has won tough races before, and he could conceivably go toe-to-toe with Reid in November.
Further down the food chain, the GOP does have some other options, though they're all a bit less compelling. State Sen. Greg Brower is ambitious, but he'd need to sacrifice his seat if he wanted to run. However, Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, Treasurer Dan Schwartz, and Controller Ron Knecht all won their seats in the 2014 election and wouldn't need to give them up to pursue Senate bids. There hasn't been much talk of them facing Reid, though ace Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston memorably described Knecht as having "a God complex," so he could try it.
There's also been a little speculation about newly elected Attorney General Adam Laxalt going for a quick promotion, but Laxalt's very conservative views (and a history of embarrassing episodes in his past) don't make him an incredibly compelling candidate. Both Reps. Mark Amodei and Joe Heck have declined to run, but the NRSC may try changing Heck's mind, especially if they can't get anyone better.
Reid himself has insisted that he's running for re-election, but plenty of observers don't believe him. Reid was injured in a recent exercise mishap (as you can see in the photo at the top of this piece), and that's only led to more talk of him bailing. Ralston has speculated that if Reid surprises everyone and calls it quits, he might try to delay such an announcement until late in the cycle to help his protege, former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, avoid a primary challenge. However, Ralston has emphasized that he thinks it is far more likely that Reid means what he says and will run again.
If Reid does leave, another potential Democratic candidate is Rep. Dina Titus. Titus ran for governor in 2006 so she does have statewide ambition, but she may not want to give up her safe House seat. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller could also conceivably run, though he's much more interested in the 2018 gubernatorial race. At the moment though, we should plan for Reid to run again.
This is going to be a very expensive and high-stakes contest. If the Republicans can take this seat, they're all but assured of keeping the Senate. But Reid has proven that he can win, and Democrats will fight hard to save their leader—and so will he.
For all of our posts in the Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, click here.