Will Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth jump into the race?
Potential candidates are constantly getting "mentioned" for higher office, but who's doing all that work? Why, the Great Mentioner, of course. In this new ongoing series, Daily Kos channels the Great Mentioner and catalogs all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races.
Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate (assuming the White House stays blue; five if it doesn't) and Illinois is at the top of the target list. Freshman Sen. Mark Kirk took advantage of a favorable political climate and a weak opponent to narrowly win his seat in 2010, but Illinois is a very Democratic state and the party has a deep bench here, so he may be the most vulnerable Republican senator come 2016. But Kirk has proven to be a solid fundraiser and a tough candidate, and he won't go down without a fight. There was some speculation that Kirk would retire after he suffered a serious stroke in 2012, but he's made it clear that he's seeking re-election.
A number of Democratic House members are publicly eying this race. Rep. Tammy Duckworth is usually at the top of the national party's wish list, and she's acknowledged she's looking at a run. Duckworth, who lost both her legs in the Iraq War, has a compelling biography that matches up well with Kirk's own military service. Duckworth is also a great fundraiser in her own right which would help her negate another of Kirk's advantages.
Kirk himself seems to acknowledge that she would be a tough opponent. Back in December, he snidely tried to talk Duckworth out of running, declaring, "To fight and lose a Senate race against Kirk is a terrible start to a career." If Duckworth runs, Kirk will try and use her service in disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's administration against her, something Republicans unsuccessfully tried in 2012.
Duckworth may be able to scare off potential primary challengers, but three other representatives are gauging their chances. Head over the fold to find out who else may make this race.
Bill Foster represents Aurora (the state's second-largest city, in the outskirts of Chicagoland) and is personally wealthy. Foster is also no stranger to tough elections: He took an ancestrally Republican seat in 2008 and knocked off a longtime incumbent in 2012 (though he lost his seat in the 2010 wave). Democratic operatives also note that Foster has run ads in the Chicago media market for each of his races, perhaps giving him a touch of name recognition outside his district in this voter-rich area.
Cheri Bustos holds a seat in the Quad Cities region in northwest Illinois and is currently the only potential candidate from outside Chicago. "Downstate," as its known, casts far fewer votes in a Democratic primary than the Chicago area, but if enough city-based contenders split the vote, Bustos' regional support could help her stand out. Bustos also has been a great fundraiser, and she handily won high-profile races in 2012 and 2014. Bustos has cast some high-profile conservative votes recently, though, and even joined the Blue Dog Coalition, things that could hurt in a primary.
Finally, Robin Kelly represents a House seat on the South Side of Chicago and its southern 'burbs, and she may also jump in. Kelly came from behind to win the Democratic nomination in a 2013 special election in dominant fashion by emphasizing gun violence, giving her some recent campaign experience. However, state Sen. Napoleon Harris is also thinking about trying for a promotion, which could hurt Kelly in a primary. Harris and Kelly are both black and hail from the same area, so if they both ran, they could cost each other votes.
That foursome constitutes the top tier, and most conversation has revolved around this group, though there are some other names nominally in the mix. Former Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has also refused to take his name out of contention, though thankfully, he's made no obvious moves to run. The poisonously unpopular Quinn recently lost re-election by 4 points, and national Democrats would prefer he stayed away. Attorney General Lisa Madigan is usually mentioned for statewide races, but her team has said she is unlikely to run. The DSCC tried to recruit Madigan for the 2010 race against Kirk but she declined, and she seems far more interested in the governorship (though she passed on that, too, last cycle).
There's also the occasional speculation that First Lady Michelle Obama will run, a rumor Kirk himself has raised money off of. There doesn't seem to be any substance to this though, so we can probably keep our "Obama for Senate" T-shirts in storage.
Again, this is probably the best pickup opportunity for Senate Democrats anywhere, but it's not going to be a slam dunk. Republicans know that if Kirk wins, they'll keep the Senate, and they're going to fight hard to keep him in office. As always, we'll be watching all developments closely here at Daily Kos Elections.
For all of our posts in the Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, click here.