Joe Romm at Think Progress/climate is bringing us the stomach churning news of new research which doesn't mince words about the dire situation in which we find ourselves.
The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) study, “Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change,” finds that by 2020, human-caused warming will move the Earth’s climate system “into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years.”
In the best-case scenario PNNL modeled, with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations stabilizing at about 525 parts per million (the RCP4.5 scenario), the four-decade warming trend hits 0.45°F (0.25°C) per decade. That means over a 4-decade period, the Earth would warm 1.8°F (4 x 0.45) or 1°C (4 x 0.25). This is a faster multi-decadal rate than the Earth has seen in at least a millennium.
Because of Arctic amplification, the most northern latitudes warm two times faster (or more) than the globe as a whole does. As this figure from the study shows, the rate of warming for the Arctic is projected to quickly exceed 1.0°F (0.55°C) per decade.
DecadalWarming
The rate of temperature change is rising and will continue to do so, as seen here with the thick gray line. This model depicts rates measured in 40-year windows of time, a time frame that reflects lifespans of people.
As Bill McKibben has
written at the Guardian UK, the climate movement is coming together at a ferocious rate. We need to all get involved to push for change and to accept change in our lives.