From last Wednesday:
Contrary to corporate MSM: Israel's Kulanu "All Of Us" Party will decide the election
Little did I know on Wednesday how close that title fit to post-election events.
UPDATE: Bibi may be on his way out.
Senior members of the Zionist Union party confirmed to Maariv on Sunday reports that the party's head, Yitzhak Herzog, offered Kulanu's Chairman, Moshe Kahlon, senior portfolios and a Prime Ministerial rotation, if Kahlon would align himself with him.
According to the sources, "The possibility is being looked into. Herzog is speaking with all possible partners."
That is a vastly better deal than Moshe Kahlon and Kulanu could ever get with Netanyahu and Likud.
ZU = 24 seats
Joint List (Arab Israelis) = 13 seats
Yesh Atid = 11 seats
Kulanu = 10 seats
Meretz = 5 seats
Total = 63 seats, enough to form a government. Plus likely participation from
United Torah Judaism = 6
For a stable coalition government at 69 seats. If Shas came in that would make it 76 seats with 63 from Jewish parties and the 13 from the Arabs.
If so, that's the end of Great Victory / Mission Accomplished talk about Bibi in 2015.
- - - - - - Prior to today's news - - - - - - -
Bibi's effort to make a new government hangs on satisfying a felon. He also has to satisfy another party -- Kulanu, domestically a clone of America's Democrats -- that demands shutting down Israeli corruption.
America's corporate press trumpet their "news" that Bibi Netanyahu won a big victory in the March 17th election in Israel. Really ??? The Likud Party's overall coalition lost 4 seats in that election. On top of that the new Kulanu Party insists on Clean Government, so there's another 10 seats that might be added to the 4 already lost.
Likud and potential coalition partners could be down 14 seats, even getting all time record turnouts from the Arab-hating "settlers" living in the West Bank areas near Jerusalem. That's not my idea of a great victory. What do I know?
Israel always has coalition governments, so where do these results put things?
Bibi needs 61 votes in the 120 seat Knesset to make a coalition. Times of Israel, a corporatist outlet if nothing else, claims these parties are on board to meet that standard: Netanyahu's Likud (30 seats), Kulanu (10), Jewish Home (8), Shas (7) and United Torah Judaism (6).
61 on the nose.
"Oi, vey, mistah...." To quote Barbra Streisand. Here we go again. The Bibi clown show gets in gear.
Aryeh Deri took bribes. He did time for it. Two years in prison. Now he's the head of Shas, the main Sephardic Israeli political party.
A clown drunk on hash could not make this up. And Deri want Interior, where there's more than three shekels to be handed out. Bibi has to pay off the felon to make a government.
Yisrael Beytenu (6 seats) is not in this combo as its leader, Avigdor Liberman, is reportedly holding out for Defense. That puts Yisrael Beytenu at odds with Likud loyalists who back Moshe Yaalon to stay in that position. The YBs are Russians... more on them below.
What's the point of Likud winning 30 seats at the price of pandering a perpetual race war with the Palestinians, if they turn around and give away the plum appointments?
If Bibi loses the felon, even if he gets the Russians and holds Kulanu/Democrats then he can only reach 60 votes with his nominal allies.
Then on Saturday of all days, the Sabbath, word got around that Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party raised objections to putting a felon in the Cabinet. Israel has some ethical standards, right?
Where do matters stand ???
What holds water?
Bibi has more problems than seeing a very unstable 61 votes as his target. The big, big problem now is that nobody trusts him. Overall, political Israelis trust Bibi less than they trust the felon, Aryeh Deri.
If anything it looks like Bibi/Likud are as likely to lose Kulanu as they are to pick up Yisrael Beytenu (the Russians.) Losing Kulanu would leave the process deadlocked. Likud has no route to 61 votes in a government that it controls.
Let's go down a list where public information conflicts with where Bibi Netanyahu and Likud Party need to have things go to make a government:
-- Kulanu: Moshe Kahlon, head of Kulanu, said the morning after the election that the Kulanu campaign platform is his central condition. Otherwise, there will be no coalition of Kulanu with Likud.
That is not a statement that he supports Netanyahu and Likud. We've seen a dozen leaks out of Likud claiming that Kahlon and his party are in it for a coalition. Not true, not yet.
Platform for Kulanu in English is below the fold. Looks to me like the Democratic Party here in the the U.S. None of it, not a line, not a phrase matches to NeoCon Likud.
For positions in the government, that starts with the Finance Ministry. Taking away the Ministry of Housing and Construction is also top line. That means taking Housing from Jewish Home and its leader Naftali Bennett, which sounds impossible going in. But who knows?
Likud would have to pay off Jewish Home with some other post(s) in the Cabinet. I don't know how that is possible.
Eli Alaluf, of Kulanu, seems a natural for the Ministry of Immigrant Absorption. That office could expand to do some Internal Absorption (my phrase) for the ultraOrthodox and for Israeli Arabs, who are as much outside the main economy as immigrants.
One can hope.
Demanding the Defense Ministry for Yoav Galant, the #2 in Kulanu, is a dream. He'll be used somewhere else as an elected Member of Knesset.
The Israel Lands Administration office doesn't sound like much. Thing is, this crew/gang has generated corruption up and down the country. Moshe Kahlon featured this issue in his stump speech and on television. The promise from Kulanu is to release 250,000 building permits immediately and cut the overall delays in half.
That's taking the political battle to where the big fraud money rolls in. Likud is going to let that go ??? See its cash cow get slaughtered? That's what happens to get Kulanu's 10 votes and make a government.
In effect, Likud & Friends lost 4 votes at the ballot box and another 10 votes to Kulanu. Likud's friends aren't much in the "friend" attribute.
-- Shas: this religious party can't help themselves. With a felon controlling negotiations Shas could get an agreement on paper, a handshake with Bibi, then lose the top spot when the Knesset bumps him out middle of the second week.
And any government that depends on Shas votes would go away, same day.
-- Yisrael Beytenu: is the Russians. These guys are so far right (a pack of unreconstructed Stalinists ?) that the Likudniks don't quite believe what they say during campaigns. One example from their web site:
A New Citizenship Law
In order to enjoy the full rights of an Israeli citizen, one must also take on responsibilities. We will work to enact a citizenship law, which will require all Israeli citizens to pledge allegiance to the State and perform military or alternative national service.
Uh, well... how does that match to getting well-educated, middle-aged Jews from the United States, Russia, and Europe? Turns out they want exemptions for other Russians.
Aim at Arabs, hit the Jewish immigrants. Gotta love these guys. Time on time they could borrow the "Moran" sign.
And they want the Defense job. Their leader is Avigdor Lieberman, who is over his head now as Minister of Foreign Affairs. At best Yisrael Beytenu is unstable at domestic policy.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Moshe Kahlon with Kulanu has positioned his group to take over every one of the big bribery, economic fraud positions. He and his party leaders are honest. Panfully honest by Israeli standards. Always have been. Get the graft all off the table, away from Bibi's thugs and the religious party sociopaths. (Below the fold for the platform in English.)
Gee, no fraud ????? No giveaway shekels? What's a Bibi to do?
A no-fraud government involving Bibi Netanyahu is frankly difficult to imagine. He has bought Knesset votes with corruption for years. Now his central group has 4 fewer seats for 2015.
The Kulanu Party (10 seats) insists on removing the big scams. Otherwise, they say there will be no government coalition.
A short-lived government? A dead lock in negotiations? Could Kulanu gets up on its hind feet and cobble together a center-left government without Likud but with "support" from the Arabs and their Joint List?
A center government with Kulanu, Zionist Union, Yesh Atid and Likud ??? (No minor parties. No leader because Likud is the only right wing party in that mix. It's 45 seats to Likud's 30.)
My bet on Israeli politics, today, goes to a fifth option: a mess. Just a mess.
One sure thing: corporate media in America will report another Great Triumph for Bibi. No doubt.
Kulanu in bullet points.
Transparency:
-- We will require public servants to publish an annual report of their activities
-- We will require that Knesset membersâ diaries be open to the public
-- We will take up the fight against government corruption at all levels
Cost of Living:
Housing Costs
-- We will reduce construction time for new apartments in Israel from 13 to 7 years, taking over all aspects of the construction procedures from planning, marketing, development, and licensing. In the short term, we plan to remove barriers and so release for immediate construction approximately 250,000 apartments currently at an advanced stages of planning. The removal of these impediments and subsequent construction will result in the reduction of housing costs.
Food Costs
-- We will reduce the cost of living by encouraging greater competition within the Israeli food industry. We will focus on reducing bureaucratic costs involved in food production and removing obstacles to competition with the large supermarket chains.
Banking Costs
-- We will reduce the costs of everyday banking for households and make it easier for small businesses to obtain the necessary credit to start their business. We will do this by creating new regulations to increase competition in the banking sector, which is currently one of the most centralised in Israel. We will encourage the entrance of new banks and remove obstacles to transferring accounts from one bank to another.
Administrative costs associated with pensions and savings
-- We will reduce pension management fees.
-- We will put a stop to the conflict of interest between pension agents.
-- We will promote individual workers' freedom to choose their own pension agent.
-- We will prevent the taking of risks with pensions funds, for example by adjusting the saver's age level of risk.
-- We will increase income support benefits for pensioners without any form of financial protection.
-- We will increase pension saving participation for employees who fail to reach the minimum tax threshold.
-- We will resolve the issue of unpaid pensions for Olim.
Employement (sic) and Economic Growth:
Small and medium businesses
Improve credit conditions for small and medium businesses
-- We will limit the current payment terms for pubic institutions and local authorities.
-- We will provide better credit conditions for small and medium businesses.
Direct assistance to businesses and self-employed
-- We will legislate for the provision of unemployment benefits for self-employed individuals.
-- We will expand the number of items currently recognised as tax expenses.
-- We will optimise and make more efficient payments to business owners who serve in the reserves.
Elimination of bureaucracy that limits business growth
-- We will ease the threshold conditions for government procurement tenders for small and medium businesses.
-- We will ease the growth of business by targeting obstructive, burdening and unnecessary bureaucracy.
Fostering Business
-- We will increase the number of workers in government creches for children (ages 0-3), and free afternoon day centres (ages 3-9), including educational frameworks 1 to 4.
-- We will develop a countrywide network of Job Centres aimed at increasing professional qualifications for the unemployed, with special emphasis on the Haredi sector.
-- We will adapt vocational training and job placement for minorities.
-- We will provide career services, training and placement for individuals over the age of 40 who are looking to embark on new careers.
-- We will improve law enforcement in the area of employment and labour laws, with special emphasis on protecting vulnerable populations.
Increase negative income tax
-- We will expand Israel's negative income tax scheme to encourage low income workers to find employment.
-- We will make accessible and transparent all details on the negative income tax scheme.
Encouraging employment in single parent households
-- We will undertake an expansive needs assessment of single parent households. This will be followed by a review the current legislation concerning these families with the goal of amending current legislation to better account for the modern family structure.
Encourage entrepreneurship and employment among the disabled population
-- We will work to provide people with disabilities the ability to lead more independent lives through greater participation in the work force.
Reduce educational and social gaps:
Equal opportunities in education
-- We will work on three fronts to reduce gaps in education, which will be piloted and evaluated in 300 schools throughout the country.
We will expand the differentials in local authority budgets.
Pedagogical techniques will be modernised, with particular emphasis on education in the periphery. [Read generally as requiring STEM classes in the religious schools]
We will reduce attrition and drop outs through the provision of a wider variety of courses and qualifications for students.
National Health Care:
-- We will expand the number of medications subsidised under the current health system, especially for those that may be life-saving.
-- We will reduce waiting times for medical procedures through the use of national hospital infrastructures.
-- We will encourage double shifts at public hospitals, at no extra expense to the patients.
-- We will vigorously fight black market medicine and the illegal use of public resources for private medical procedures.
-- We will change the current system of health insurance to rein in the expanding use of private medicine in Israel.
Fighting Poverty:
-- We will implement the recommendations made by The Alaluf Committee, aiming to reach the average expected level of poverty of developed nations with 10 years.
-- We will allocate resources to provide food security to all citizens of Israel.
Public Housing:
-- We will decrease waiting times for public housing and housing benefits.
-- We will provide one-to-one support to help families in need through the rental process.
-- We will invest the profits obtained from the sale of public housing into the redevelopment and regeneration of older housing projects.
Female Employment
-- We will increase the number of workers at creches for children under the age of 3
-- We will provide free after-school activities and child-care centers for children ages 3 and 9 included those in education framework clusters 1- 4
-- We will provide equal employment opportunities for Ultra-Orthodox women by matching their cultural and religious needs to the workplace. We will also provide greater training and certification possibilities for this population.
-- We will work for the equal opportunities to all minority women in Israel, through the provision of vocational training.
Single Family Households: We will undertake an in-depth needs assessment for the purpose of amending current legislation to better help these families.
"Daddy comes home from work early": We will encourage businesses to allow fathers to leave work early one day a week for the purpose of increasing quality time with their families.
Combating Domestic Violence: We will create a national organization tasked with collecting data on the prevalence of domestic violence and creating effective interventions to prevent the abuse of women in the home.
Quality of life for the elderly
-- Reducing waiting times for government subsidized nursing homes.
-- Increasing the number of community centers and expanding the number of programs offered.
-- Increasing supplementary income for those who only receive pensions and have no other form of income.
-- Expanding regulation and oversight for nursing homes.
Optimize the public sector:
Effective management of public services
-- We will establish an evaluation system for public sector employees and incentivise efficient workers.
-- We will change over current staff with new staff and establish mechanisms for their professional development.
-- We will make public services more efficient through improved management of government offices by:
bringing human resources and recruitment in-house.
providing managers with greater flexibility in determining their budgets.
making government offices responsible for meeting their budgets.
Reduction of government bureaucracy
-- We will reduce service waiting times and the "middle man/mediator"
-- We will establish guidelines to increase transparency among public services and government agencies.
Reforms of Government Regulations
-- We will work to cancel outdated, unnecessary, and duplicate regulations to allow for business growth.
-- We will require government ministers and regulatory bodies act in a transparent manner and make public their cost-benefit analyses.
-- We will introduce cross-ministry regulatory changes, to force different government bodies to synchronise their work.
Soldiers, youth, & children:
[Social items]
-- We will increase salaries for IDF soldiers in mandatory national services: Combatants: 1,350, Logistics: 940, Home-front soldiers: 670 [Shekels a month @ ~$0.25 to a shekel.]
-- We will reduce the voting age to 17, thus providing an extra 121,300 young people with the ability to make a difference.
-- We will stop the exploitation of children and youth in the labour market through increased vigilance and enforcement of labour laws.
-- We will allow every student to take a government guaranteed loan with the purpose of funding his or her tuition. These loans will only be repaid after the individual finds gainful employment.
University students
-- We will remove obstacles to the building of more dormitories for students in Israel.
-- We will work to legislate a "fair rental act" to regulate rental contracts.
-- We will work to create conditions that establish a competitive market for long term rentals, with an emphasis on apartments with 3 rooms.
Diplomatic and security vision:
Homeland Security
-- We will maintain and seek to increase the strength of the IDF and all security agencies.
-- We will present a multi-year budget for the stability of the security sector that will also require greater efficiency from these bodies.
Political strategy and the US-Israel Alliance
-- We will maintain a high level of political activism and advance a solution that can be implemented in a collaborative fashion by regional and international actors.
-- We will keep a united Jerusalem as the capital of Israel along with the main blocks of settlement, and not allow the return of Palestinian refugees to Israel.
-- We will strengthen our relationship with the current American government and Joint Chiefs of Staff.
-- We will work to maintain and preserve Israel's close alliance with both houses of Congress and engagement with all communities of the American public.
-- We will assist the Palestinian Authority in their management and development of a prosperous Palestinian life in the West Bank.
-- We will double the budget for Hasbara ["public diplomacy," aka propaganda] and take a more pro-active stance with regards to Israel's reputation in the world.
-- We will pay closer attention to the special relationship that Israel has with young Jews in the Diaspora.
Ensuring budget resources:
-- We believe that, alongside the party platform, there is a need to publish the funding required for the implementation of the reforms, steps, and principles proposed therein. The complete implementation of our reforms that seek to increase competition, improve the effectiveness of public service, combating money-laundering, and setting national priorities, will go to ensuring the long-term growth of the economy. We have calculated that implementing these reforms will save approximately $45 billion over the course of 5 years.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
How's them apples ??? Note: no mention of Palestinians or Israeli Arabs. Nothing.
Likud loses its public money graft.
This platform goes in place to govern Israel, it's a new day. And in a coalition when Bibi & Friends get tempted, Kahlon & Friends have everything they can ask for to blow away the coalition. If Likud steals, as usual, there would be new elections ASAP.
With Bibi, it's lie, cheat and steal. Always has been.
And if the March 17th election were re-polled today the turnout percentages could only get better for the left and center. Likud survived with a loss of 4 seats to its overall coalition -- but only that loss because the "settlers" tallied at an 80% turnout.
Interesting?
And yes. The Republicans are coming over for a visit. Might deserve a line or two if they say anything in pubic.