Traditionally a swing state during presidential elections, Iowa is moving from purple to bright red. Come for a visit, and you can watch it happen before your eyes. I’ve covered the Iowa caucuses for radio since 2007 and I’m a bit of a caucus junkie. My prediction is that if things continue as they are, Iowa will be a win for the R’s in 2016.
Why is Iowa turning red? There are several reasons. The first one is that Republican candidates are here on the ground, talking with Iowans, and sharing their ideas. I’ve covered both the Republican Iowa Freedom Summit in early February, and the attempt of a bipartisan Iowa Ag Summit in early March where Democrats were no-shows. Republican candidates are learning more about Iowa and Iowans every day, hiring staff, recruiting county chairs, solidifying their messages, and most importantly, practicing the retail politics that win the caucuses. Republicans have already met with thousands, maybe tens of thousands of Iowans. And now Ted Cruz is in, with Rand Paul to make his announcement soon.
Meanwhile, the potential Democrats are barely putting a toe in the water, waiting to figure out what Hillary Clinton is going to do, and whether or not there’s going to be an old scandal or a new one that could doom her potential candidacy. In all likelihood, so is Hillary. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and former Virginia Senator Jim Web will be in Des Moines on April 10 to address Polk County Democrats at an awards dinner. This could prove to be a critical moment—because if one of these men appeals more than the other to the crowd in the most powerful Democratic county in the state, it will likely have repercussions for the rest of the race. But if they don’t start soon to build a case for their candidacies, they are losing ground every day.
Democratic candidates were invited to the Ag Summit in Des Moines, but declined the invitation by Bruce Rastetter, President of the Iowa Board of Regents, and significant Republican donor. This was a missed opportunity. Every farmer I asked at the summit was disappointed the Dems didn’t attend. They wanted to hear what they have to say about agricultural issues, and the Summit was a great place to do it. There are many farmers who are Democrats, and many who recognize how farmers have been helped by the party historically back to Roosevelt and beyond.
I was speaking to an organizer when he brought up the fact that there weren’t any Democratic candidates. “The Democrats really blew an opportunity here,” he said. “Like that Maryland guy…what’s his name? “O’Malley,” I replied. “Yeah, Martin O’Malley! What if he had been here the past couple weeks, visiting farms, talking with equipment dealers, seed guys, and then come and talk with Bruce in front of everyone? Boom, Hillary has her email problems, and he’s the Dem on top!
Iowa is also going red in part because of what I’m going to call the Grassley effect. Senator Chuck Grassley visits every county in the state every year. He knows every media person in the state, and Iowans love him, even if they disagree with him. He calls me to be on my show once a month, and I see him several times a year. I talk with Chuck more often than I do with my sisters, who only live 50 miles away (I’ll try to do better!). And Iowa has a newly elected Republican Senator--Joni Ernst. Reviled by much of the coastal media, many Iowans like her, and she has hit the ground running, working hard. Don’t forget Governor Terry Branstad, another hard worker who is serving a historic--for the nation--sixth term. Contrast Grassley, Ernst and Branstad with departed Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. Like Harkin or not, he was nearly invisible. I met with him twice since 2008--once each in the week immediately before the presidential election. Over the years I quit calling his office. His staff never bothered--not even once--to return my calls.
Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack gets around as much as Grassley, to his credit, but it’s like he’s all alone. Which, interestingly enough, for all I know, he is. Since I’ve been paying attention, party leadership in Des Moines and Iowa City treat rural Iowa as an afterthought, almost as if they’re afraid they’ll wander out here and get manure on their boots. Comfortable with large margins in our more urban counties, rural Iowans are an afterthought. It also hurts local races, as strong local Democratic candidates don’t get the up ticket support local Republicans do.
The state Republican staffers are also much more responsive to media requests. If I want to speak with someone, they work hard to deliver. “You want the Governor? Is Friday OK?” They know my listening audience matters to them. The Dem state party staff? They pay as much attention to me as Kate Winslet. She doesn’t return my calls either.
To be fair, there is a new state chair, and she has been rattling some cages that should have been rattled long before.
So, on the one hand, R Presidential candidates are on the ground working hard, numerous elected R’s are advancing issues important to Iowans at both the state and national levels, and R state staffers work to deliver people I want to speak with and my audience wants to hear. I’ve heard the same from other rural media.
Contrast that with potential D candidates waiting, hard working lonesome Dave Loebsack doing his best on his own, and state officials who don’t return phone calls and couldn’t find my town with Google maps.
BAM! Iowa is turning red.
Randy Renstrom, a professor of psychology at Central College in Pella, Iowa, helps me with my caucus coverage. Renstrom studies how voters form political attitudes and evaluate candidates. Renstrom tells me that the big risk of not having a D early in the race is the possibility of alienating potential supporters. He says caucus goers don’t like being taken for granted. They want to know if they can connect to the candidates as people, and want to learn if those candidates understand issues that affect their everyday lives. He thinks that Iowans will soon start thinking that the game has started without D’s in it, and that sooner or later they will ultimately find a team on the other side to root for.
Economist Brian Peterson, also at Central College, is an important part of my election coverage as well. He says that in the long term, the primary policy concern will be that a moderate Republican stakes out the middle ground on issues near to Democrats’ hearts, such as immigration, education, or labor reform. That middle ground will not succeed for the Republican in the Iowa caucus, but will gather significant attention in the general election. Once a Democrat comes forward, that person will look like s/he is copying the moderate Republican platform.
Is it too late? No, not if some things come together. Democratic activists are ready to get to work. They are hard working, and passionate. They just need candidates to work for. And there is a new state party chair, as well as a whole bunch of Iowans who want to vote for a good D candidate. The time to enter the race is soon, before too much time passes. I’ve seen media reports that Hillary might not enter the race until this summer, if she enters at all. That’s too late.
Is Hillary inevitable if she choses to run? John Deeth, a Democratic activist and blogger who has been studying the caucuses since the 80’s, tells me she isn’t. He says that core activists are less “ready for Hillary,” and are more “willing to settle” for her. He sees a big vacuum to the left of her that he would like to see Elizabeth Warren fill.
But unless good candidates hit the ground soon, much will be lost. Iowa is purple now, but turn Iowa solid red on the electoral map far enough ahead of the general election, and the path to 270 electoral votes for the Democratic candidate just became much more difficult.
Bottom line? Democrats waiting until late in the game to get into the Iowa caucuses will result in a caucus winner as it must, but it may well create a general election loser.
And on election night 2016 when the results come in, and Iowa goes red, there will be a great many people wondering how red Iowa could have possibly been the blue state that was the starting point for President Barack Obama way back in 2008.